The combination of high prices and interest rates is seeing affordability become extremely stretched at a time when cost-of-living pressures more generally are also constraining incomes, according to a recent Westpac Survey.
In response, would-be buyers are pushing the timing of their planned purchases back – less than 10% expect to transact in the next 6mths, the lowest share across all survey waves.
The prospective flow of first home buyers is showing the biggest response to these pressures, planned purchases down materially on last year. Just 2% of those surveyed expecting to become a first time owner in the next year.
Outside of the first home buyer space the story looks to relate more to the interest rate situation. Prospective investor buyers have pared back plans for the next six months.
And sales results for this weekend confirms the slowing market, despite some properties still exceeding reserves in some places. As reported in the AFR, the prospect of interest rates staying high has spooked many buyers, making them less likely to spend above their budgets.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Property Buyers’ Plans Destroyed By “Higher For Longer” Rate Trends!
In today’s show we look at the latest from our surveys – how many households are really under financial pressure – because there are big differences between the “official” figures and those shown in other surveys, and data points, including the rise in calls to financial help lines and hardship supports.
This is the first in a series of shows, culminating with a live show on Tuesday 9th April 2024.
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Our latest surveys to the end of February reveals the current state of Household Finances in Australian as measured by cash flow. A record 73.3% of those living in the rental sector are under pressure, while just over half of those with a mortgage are also in net negative cash flow. All up around 48% of households or 4.7 million families are struggling. The causes are clear to see, with costs of living still outstripping real incomes, high mortgage interest rates thanks to RBA monetary policy and rental cost driven sky high. Massive net migration, and bad government housing policies have created this disaster, which will likely be with us for decades. Housing affordability is shot.
So, in today’s show I will walk through the latest findings, ahead of a live show during which we will examine the data at a post code level. That show will be on Tuesday 12th March 2024.
But here we examine how we measure cash flow stress, examine the latest results across mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress, and also look at our price scenarios for the months ahead, alongside our estimates of mortgage defaults in the next 12 months.
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Here we answer viewers specific post code requests, following our recent show discussing Household Mortgage, Rental and Financial stress last week “Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate!” https://youtu.be/np4H9RkPqEo
On Tuesday 13th February in our live show we will discuss this further, so if you have additional requests for post code level analysis, drop them in the chat.
You can get more info about our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Post Code Level Household Financial Stress: You Asked, We Answered!
Here we answer viewers specific post code requests, following our recent show discussing Household Mortgage, Rental and Financial stress last week “Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate!” https://youtu.be/np4H9RkPqEo
On Tuesday 13th February in our live show we will discuss this further, so if you have additional requests for post code level analysis, drop them in the chat.
You can get more info about our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We walk through the latest from our surveys and modelling ahead of our live show which will be on 13th February 2024 at 8pm Sydney where we will look at specific post codes in more detail.
Household financial stress continues to bite, and is spreading into many different types of communities.
Ahead, we do not expect cash flow to improve for many, as mortgage rates will not be falling very soon, the costs of living continue to rise and income growth in real terms is muted, at best.
If you want data on a specific post code, put it in the comments and I will either cover it Tuesday week, or via a separate show.
If you want to get the full data set, this is available via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Our One to One Service is also available: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from our surveys relating to households in Regional areas versus Suburban and City areas with a focus on the use of branches, and access to cash.
We find that regional areas are much heavier users of branches and cash, relative to other areas – and Canberra in particular.
This may well explain why those based in the ACT are so far removed from the real issues faced every day by regional households and businesses.
Time to get the Senate to start their review, as I discussed with Robbie Barwick in my live show recently. https://youtu.be/OijlQNTVwtU
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