Martin North – Page 30 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A: The Mainstreaming Of Crypto? With Adam Stokes

This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of play of crypto as it becomes morphed by major financial services players thanks to spot EFT’s and other developments. I am joined by Adam Stokes who says those who don’t understand crypto, don’t understand money. Those who don’t understand money, are destined to be a slave to it.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_Ly…

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in property news across the rental and sales markets.

The rental sector continues to weaken, even as properties listed for sale rises, but Sydney and Melbourne are headed in very different directions.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

AI Feeding Frenzy Creates A Headache But The Stock Market Is Not The Economy!

Sparked by Nvidia’s latest blowout earnings report, stock surge and general excitement about a “tipping point” in generative artificial intelligence, Thursday was the best day in more than a year for Wall St’s main stock indexes. And the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out another closing record high on Friday, with all three Wall Street benchmarks scoring weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 1.7%, the Dow up 1.3% and the Nasdaq 1.4% higher, as AI stocks had enough steam to keep the rally chugging along.

Nvidia advanced again on Friday, rising a further 0.4%, and briefly traded above $2 trillion in market valuation for the first time and by the ways Nvidia’s gains on Thursday, the session after its blowout earnings, the chipmaker added $277 billion in stock market value, which is Wall Street’s largest ever daily gain. Despite a smaller advance on the final trading day of the week, its performance still dominated the market’s attention.

Yet the performance of Nvidia and other Big Tech has pushed Fed worries into the background even though investors have been walking back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Recent Federal Reserve speakers echoed the content of the FOMC minutes since those were published. Communication has been understandably cautious on the inflation outlook considering the recent higher-than-expected CPI, particularly stressing the risks of cutting too early or too fast. The 29 February PCE release may well come in stronger than expected, and push rate cut expectations further away.

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A Question Of Democracy!

This week the Senate held hearings into the proposed changes to the way the RBA works. The original review was led by three Technocrats included a recommendation to remove the overrule power. This power specifically, section 11 of the Reserve Bank Act 1959 enables the federal treasurer to “overrule” an action taken by the Reserve Bank in extreme situations, via a clear and determined process, and even though no Australian government had used it in the more than 60 years it is important. It’s supposed to be a democratic fail-safe.

The Technocrats recommended the overrule power should be removed from the act. Their reasoning was that there was a risk that the federal treasurer, and by extension the federal government, might abuse that power. But what if the RBA abuses their power? The proposed change was not supported by the bulk of those who appeared in the Senate hearings, so today we look at the evidence provided.

At the heart of the issue is this. How accountable should the RBA be? And if there is no democratic override from the section 11 power, what happens if the Economists at the RBA set monetary policy in a way that badly impacts ordinary people, bearing in mind that another recommendation was to strike safeguarding the “welfare of all Australians” from their objectives. The focus will be on inflation and employment, only.

Central bankers are not infallible, sometimes makes mistakes, and frankly are already not accountable for their decisions, right or wrong. It’s a question of democracy.

So standing back, it seems it was the Technocrats and Economists who wanted to remove the section 11 power, but those with real lived experience, from both the Central Bank, and Government, as well as many respected observers, all agree.

Democracy would be sacrificed, and the Central Bank would be even less accountable if the power was removed. In other words, it is a question of democracy. And more broadly the idea of unelected Central Banks, being able to impose monetary policy decisions without question should terrify us all.

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Winners And Losers: AI Versus PMI

It was a confusing day on the markets on Thursday as AI related Stocks drove higher on Nvida results, while weak purchasing managers index (PMI) readings from Australia and Japan, together with FED signals for higher rates for longer saw Asian traders favour the dollar, as business activity in both countries slowed through February.

NVIDIA Corporation rose as much as 10% in U.S. aftermarket trade after clocking stronger-than-expected fourth quarter earnings, while its revenue guidance for the current quarter was also above street estimates.

Gains in tech also saw the Nikkei reach an intraday record high, crossing levels last seen in 1989 before the unwinding of a massive speculative bubble through the 1990’s and 2000’s.

However, elsewhere most Asian currencies retreated on Thursday, while the dollar stemmed recent losses as a slew of signals from the Federal Reserve showed that the central bank was likely to keep interest rates high in the near-term.

The Australian dollar was flat as preliminary PMI data for February showed sustained weakness in business activity. The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI® Output Index* posted 51.8 in February, up from 49.0 in January. The latest reading signalled that private sector activity returned to growth for the first time in five months and at the fastest rate since April 2023. However, while Australia’s private sector activity improved midway into the first quarter, growth was driven solely by the service sector where service providers reported increased enquires from a widening of customer bases, supporting an expansion in output and employment.

However, in contrast, manufacturing new orders fell again, sending production down at the fastest rate since the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Manufacturers continued to see high interest rates and soft conditions dampening demand.

And combined with recent stronger-than-expected wage price index data, driven by a raft of negotiated settlements across both the private and public sectors, which were released on Wednesday, drove traders to pricing in a greater chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates higher for longer.

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Property: The Dark Truth Politicians Don’t Want To Hear!

The RBA minutes just out included a discussion about the case to raise the cash rate further. It centred on the observation that it would take some time for inflation to return to target and the labour market to full employment. Inflation was expected to take a further two years or so to return towards the midpoint of the target range under the central forecast. In the end, they held the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent, and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent. But this is an important signal.

Yet the 13 RBA driven rate hikes have had a perverse impact on property. Since January last year, Australian property prices have been rising in many parts of the country, recouping almost all the losses incurred after the Reserve Bank of Australia began raising interest rates in 2022. They might be slowing a bit, now, but that was not meant to happen.

In fact, there is strong demand for property, buoyed both by increased population and a resurgence in demand from cashed-up older generations. Yet supply is not keeping up, and mortgage lending is tighter now for many as the costs of a mortgage rise. The signals are clear – we have a major crisis in housing. Renters are caught in the cross-fire, but purchasers are also in the firing line too.

Housing rapidly is becoming a lightning rod for a generation staring down the prospect of having next to no hope of buying a residence under their own steam. We may see ourselves as an egalitarian society with a universal education and health system that provides opportunities for anyone willing to have a go. Housing is broken, and politicians won’t tackle the real issues.
Could it be that the fact they are much more likely to own investment property stop them from acting, or is it the fact that this would require real action, not political spin?

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.