Martin North – Page 50 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Will The Market Hammer Fall?

As I said recently, being data dependent means higher volatility as markets swing from bullish to bearish and back. While in Australia the bulls ran hard on Friday, later Wall Street experienced a significant notable downturn as investors responded to the news of a strike by the United Auto Workers against leading automakers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. U.S. manufacturing output barely rose in August amid a decline in motor vehicle production before any industrial action starts.

Adding to the volatility was the fact that piles of derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures expired on Friday, compelling traders to roll over their existing positions or to start new ones. This time, it coincided with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes including the S&P 500, another catalyst for more share transactions.

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Is Inflation Rising From Its Slumber?

New US inflation numbers came out, and they included at least some reasons for concern. The headline figure deteriorated for the first time in months rising 0.6% in the month and 3.7% year on year. The broadest picture, breaking down into food, energy, and core services and goods excluding food tells the story.

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The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!

The latest from the ABS says the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August (seasonally adjusted.

They said “with employment increasing by around 65,000 people and the number of unemployed only dropping slightly, by around 3,000 people, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August.

“The large increase in employment in August came after a small drop in July, around the school holiday period. Looking over the past two months, the average employment growth was around 32,000 people per month, which is similar to the average growth over the past year.

“The employment-to-population ratio rose 0.1 percentage point to 64.5 per cent, around the record high in June. The participation rate also increased, up to a record high of 67.0 per cent in August, which, together with the high employment-to-population ratio, continues to reflect a tight labour market,”

Monthly hours worked fell 0.5 per cent in August 2023 (following the increase of 0.2 per cent in July), while employment rose by 0.5 per cent.
Despite a small fall in August, hours worked were 3.7 per cent higher than August 2022, continuing to reflect faster growth than the 3.0 per cent annual increase in employment.

“The strength in hours worked over the past year, relative to employment growth, shows the demand for labour is continuing to be met by people working more hours, to some extent,” The ABS said.

But there are a few questions to consider about this data, compared to other information out there. The numberwangers are at it again!

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Pickled Brits Anyone?

Well, the slew of economic data in the past few days suggests the UK economy is in a bit of a pickle, with a mix of recessionary signals pulling against some more positive wages news (at least for some). And it highlights the dilemma facing many Central Banks, as their data dependency pulls them in multiple directions and highlights how complex the current environment actually is.

It seems the economy is losing steam, though that’s partly driven by industrial action and unusually wet weather but its tracking well below the Bank of England’s growth forecast for 3Q, and yet cost pressures in the UK are running too high for the central bank to be bounded by growth concerns just yet.

The latest data from the ONS showed that the UK economy shrank at the fastest pace in seven months in July as strikes and wet weather hit activity harder than expected, reviving fears that a recession may be under way.
Gross domestic product slipped by 0.5% following a 0.5% gain in June. Economists had expected a contraction of 0.2%. Services, construction and manufacturing all shrank.

The main cause of the contraction was the dominant services sector, which fell 0.5% in July. Cool and rainy weather depressing retail sales during the month. Output was also dented as doctors, teachers and rail staff walked off the job in their disputes with the government over pay.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the bulls in the market, silly bidding and vendors bids, and the latest “announcables” which will do very little to solve the housing disaster which awaits many.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Limitations Of Monetary Policy (And What Lowe Does Next…)

Last week, the departing RBA Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe used his final public comments given at the Anika Foundation to defend his more controversial comments, saying while some of his explanations had “missed the mark” the media also had a responsibility to avoid “clickbait”.

But he also highlighted the limitations of monetary policy and suggested that fiscal and monetary policy could be better connected than today, something which should have been considered by the recent RBA review.

So today we look at what he said, and will also touch on where Central Bank Governors go after they leave their post.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/