Tag: Unemployment

More Data Pushing Rate Cuts Out, as Labour Markets Hold Up (Again)!

On Thursday Australia’s jobless rate rose to 3.8 per cent in March, which was broadly in line with the market’s expectations, and ahead of crucial March quarter inflation data due next Wednesday. The economy added 27,900 full-time roles and lost 34,500 part-time jobs in the month.

This very slight rise in the unemployment figure to 3.8 per cent last month showed February’s unexpected drop to 3.7 per cent was not an aberration after all. It’s further evidence of the continued strong state of the Australian labour market.

So, forget rate cuts for now, as this can only make it harder for the Reserve Bank to consider any start to rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock’s mantra is that the path of interest rates will depend on the data. And this is one more data point indicating the resilience of the economy. Actually, despite record immigration, the employment-to-population ratio fell marginally in the month but is still at close to the historically high levels of last year.

This continues what I think is a really wonky series on employment, as I have discussed before. As in many economies, thanks to sample issues, and definitional issues they are hard to read. Indeed, Australia’s labor market report is a volatile series and both economists and policymakers tend to look through month-to-month fluctuations. So, Thursday’s data was widely anticipated following holiday season-affected readings since December. The ABS noted that employment flows have now returned “to a more usual pattern” after recent instability. The incoming and outgoing samples this time around were certainly a little less volatile. But I still take the results with a truck load of salt!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Unemployment Wobbles Higher In January, But Don’t Expect Quick Rate Cuts!

Last month Australian employment surprisingly tumbled in December, snapping four months of gains and sending the currency lower as traders boosted wagers on the Reserve Bank switching to policy easing this year. The economy had shed 65,100 roles, led by the biggest monthly drop in full-time employment since the height of pandemic, but unemployment held at 3.9%, cushioned by a sharp fall in the number of workers seeking jobs.

Now we got the next update from the ABS which showed that the economy added just 500 roles in January, confounding expectations for a 25,000 gain and well shy of numbers needed to hold down the jobless rate.

Unemployment advanced to 4.1% from 3.9% while the participation rate was steady. The number of people considered officially unemployed increased by 22,000.

“This is another sign of moderation in jobs demand,” said Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP Ltd. “I still don’t think that you can justify a near-term rate cut right now because the labor market still looks tighter than before the pandemic. It’s loosened, but not enough to get worried about.”

NAB’s Tapas Strickland noted the labour market was still tight and said the central bank would likely wait for next month’s data before drawing any firm conclusions. “If the lift in the unemployment rate is sustained, then that would suggest a softening in the labour market is occurring faster than the RBA’s track, which could give the RBA greater confidence in their forecasts of inflation heading back to the mid-point of the band,” said Mr Strickland.

But frankly, the numberwanging is all over the shop.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Unemployment Wobbles Higher In January, But Don’t Expect Quick Rate Cuts!
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Unemployment Wobbles Higher In January, But Don’t Expect Quick Rate Cuts!

Last month Australian employment surprisingly tumbled in December, snapping four months of gains and sending the currency lower as traders boosted wagers on the Reserve Bank switching to policy easing this year. The economy had shed 65,100 roles, led by the biggest monthly drop in full-time employment since the height of pandemic, but unemployment held at 3.9%, cushioned by a sharp fall in the number of workers seeking jobs.

Now we got the next update from the ABS which showed that the economy added just 500 roles in January, confounding expectations for a 25,000 gain and well shy of numbers needed to hold down the jobless rate.

Unemployment advanced to 4.1% from 3.9% while the participation rate was steady. The number of people considered officially unemployed increased by 22,000.

“This is another sign of moderation in jobs demand,” said Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP Ltd. “I still don’t think that you can justify a near-term rate cut right now because the labor market still looks tighter than before the pandemic. It’s loosened, but not enough to get worried about.”

NAB’s Tapas Strickland noted the labour market was still tight and said the central bank would likely wait for next month’s data before drawing any firm conclusions. “If the lift in the unemployment rate is sustained, then that would suggest a softening in the labour market is occurring faster than the RBA’s track, which could give the RBA greater confidence in their forecasts of inflation heading back to the mid-point of the band,” said Mr Strickland.

But frankly, the numberwanging is all over the shop.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!

The latest from the ABS says the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August (seasonally adjusted.

They said “with employment increasing by around 65,000 people and the number of unemployed only dropping slightly, by around 3,000 people, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August.

“The large increase in employment in August came after a small drop in July, around the school holiday period. Looking over the past two months, the average employment growth was around 32,000 people per month, which is similar to the average growth over the past year.

“The employment-to-population ratio rose 0.1 percentage point to 64.5 per cent, around the record high in June. The participation rate also increased, up to a record high of 67.0 per cent in August, which, together with the high employment-to-population ratio, continues to reflect a tight labour market,”

Monthly hours worked fell 0.5 per cent in August 2023 (following the increase of 0.2 per cent in July), while employment rose by 0.5 per cent.
Despite a small fall in August, hours worked were 3.7 per cent higher than August 2022, continuing to reflect faster growth than the 3.0 per cent annual increase in employment.

“The strength in hours worked over the past year, relative to employment growth, shows the demand for labour is continuing to be met by people working more hours, to some extent,” The ABS said.

But there are a few questions to consider about this data, compared to other information out there. The numberwangers are at it again!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!
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The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!

The latest from the ABS says the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August (seasonally adjusted.

They said “with employment increasing by around 65,000 people and the number of unemployed only dropping slightly, by around 3,000 people, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August.

“The large increase in employment in August came after a small drop in July, around the school holiday period. Looking over the past two months, the average employment growth was around 32,000 people per month, which is similar to the average growth over the past year.

“The employment-to-population ratio rose 0.1 percentage point to 64.5 per cent, around the record high in June. The participation rate also increased, up to a record high of 67.0 per cent in August, which, together with the high employment-to-population ratio, continues to reflect a tight labour market,”

Monthly hours worked fell 0.5 per cent in August 2023 (following the increase of 0.2 per cent in July), while employment rose by 0.5 per cent.
Despite a small fall in August, hours worked were 3.7 per cent higher than August 2022, continuing to reflect faster growth than the 3.0 per cent annual increase in employment.

“The strength in hours worked over the past year, relative to employment growth, shows the demand for labour is continuing to be met by people working more hours, to some extent,” The ABS said.

But there are a few questions to consider about this data, compared to other information out there. The numberwangers are at it again!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Numberwanging Squared – Why The Employment Data Tells Us Little!

The headline unemployment rate for August fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5 per cent, but this is A NUMBERWANG. We discuss.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/aug-2021

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Reaping The Whirlwind – The DFA Daily 14th May 2020 [Podcast]

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We had a power cut last evening, so this is a few hours later than normal. Thanks Endeavour Energy!!

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Reaping The Whirlwind - The DFA Daily 14th May 2020 [Podcast]
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Trend Unemployment Up To 5.3% In August 2019

Australia’s trend unemployment rate increased in August 2019 to 5.3 per cent, from a revised July 2019 figure, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “Australia’s trend unemployment rate increased to 5.3 per cent in August 2019. The trend participation rate increased further to 66.2 per cent, while employment continued to grow above the 20 year annual average.”

Employment and hours

In August 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 22,000 people. Full-time employment increased by just over 7,000 people and part-time employment increased by an estimated 15,000 people.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 0.3 million people (2.5 per cent) which was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent). Full-time employment increased by 2.4 per cent and part-time employment increased by 2.8 per cent over the past year.

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1 per cent in August 2019 and by 1.7 per cent over the past year. This is in line with the 20 year average year-on-year growth of 1.7 per cent.

Underemployment and underutilisation

The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.5 per cent in August, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the past year. The trend underutilisation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points over the past year.

States and territories trend unemployment rate

The trend unemployment rate remained steady in most states and territories, except for South Australia (up 0.2 percentage points), Queensland and the Northern Territory (up 0.1 percentage points) and Western Australia (down 0.1 percentage points).

Over the year, unemployment rates fell in New South Wales, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, and increased in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.

Seasonally adjusted data

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 5.3 per cent in August 2019, while the underemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 8.6 per cent. The seasonally adjusted participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.2 per cent, and the number of people employed increased by an estimated 35,000.

The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by around 350,000 people entering and leaving employment in the month.

Note that in original terms, the incoming rotation group in August 2019 had a higher employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (62.4% in August 2019, compared to 61.9% in July 2019), and higher than the sample as a whole (62.3%). The incoming rotation group had a lower full-time employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (41.2% in August 2019, compared to 42.3% in July 2019), and was lower than the sample as a whole (42.4%).