Category: Economic Data

New Zealand’s Emerging Property Disaster!

We look at the latest data from New Zealand, and how the property portals spin the story of rising stock, falling prices and confidence, against rising mortgage rates.

And we can probably extrapolate what may be going to happen here in Australia in the months ahead, considering our rate is well below the current NZ OCR of 2% – ahead of the RBA decision Tuesday, when we expect a 0.4% rise.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

A Stats Fest On Credit, Home Prices And GDP…

Loads of data out the past couple of days, so we cover off the March 2022 quarter GDP, (hint strong household spending), Credit Growth (hint, investors having a field day), Building approvals (down) and Home Price aggregates (overall down).

We also discuss the implications for the new Government.

No FED Put For You, Or You…!

Wall Street’s three major indexes closed lower on Tuesday, following a rally last week, as volatile oil markets kept soaring inflation in focus and investors reacted to hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.67%, to 32,991, the S&P 500 lost 0.63%, to 4,132.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.41%, to 12,081.39.
All three indexes had rallied last week to snap a decades-long losing streak. With Tuesday’s decline, the S&P and the Dow were essentially unchanged for May. The Nasdaq showed a monthly decline of 2%.

And Inflation in the Eurozone surged to a new record high in May, piling more pressure on the European Central Bank to end its money-printing and bring its key interest rates back above zero. Preliminary figures from Eurostat showed consumer price inflation rose to 8.1% in the 12 months through May, up from 7.4% in April.

So, markets should not look for a quick change of direction from Central Banks.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The Insolvency Wave Has Yet To Hit… But…

Equifax data suggests that, while the overall rate of insolvencies in March 2022 was up 5 per cent on last year, construction insolvencies were 28 per cent higher.

Iconic firm Grocon collapsed in 2020 and this year mega-builder ProBuild — with its $5 billion pipeline of work — fell over. Since then, ABD Group, Privium Home, Condev and, most recently, Next, went under. In the first quarter of the year, compared to the same period in 2021, 270 construction companies filled for insolvency, a 21 per cent jump.

Building costs have risen so much that one construction professional says he goes to work every day knowing he’ll “disappoint at least one person”.

Stretched global supply chains have fed into soaring costs for materials. Ongoing border closers boosted a hot labour market, meaning tradespeople have been charging more.

“It’s created a ‘profitless boom’, with many construction companies committed to projects that are no longer financially viable, thanks to major price increases for building materials”

Pivotal, which has built more than 1,500 homes over 15 years, was placed into liquidation on Thursday, following other major firms such as Condev and Probuild earlier this year.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Consumers’ Last Hurrah?

Our latest weekly market review we look at the momentum in the market, which has turned positive (unless you hold Crypo) starting with the US, Europe, Asia and Australia.

The big economic news on Friday from the US was that real consumer spending rose in April by the most in three months. This helped to push the S&P 500 Index to its biggest weekly gain since March.

At first glance, this may be seen as a sign of resilience on the part of US consumers despite the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. However, look more closely and it’s not encouraging that consumers are having to dig deeper into their pockets to finance that spending with the personal saving rate dropping below 5% for the first time since 2009.

Annual inflation remains three times higher than the Fed’s 2% target and helps explain why policy makers are seen pressing on with half-point hikes in interest rates in coming meetings.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Wither House Prices: With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker who is @AvidCommentator on Twitter.

In today’s show we look at Australian Housing, the drivers of inflation, and the limitations of Central Bank policy.

The slides can be found at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-27th-may-2022

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Inflation Set To “Power” Higher!

More bad news on the inflation front as power prices are set to rise, and the ABS confirms many firms are seeking to lift prices where they can.

We are already seeing second order effects, and these will continue ahead.

The battle to tame inflation has hardly started yet.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Your Home Is More Likely Not Your Own!

The ABS released their latest Housing Occupancy and Costs series for the financial year 2019-20. Now, this is important research of course but the potential of the findings to be useful are blunted by that fact that much has changed since June 2020, which of course was in the early phase of COIVD. With that caveat, there are some important findings.

First, in terms of basic home ownership, In the past two decades, from 1999–00 to 2019–20, the percentage of Australian households that own their own home: With or without a mortgage decreased from 71% to 66%. Without a mortgage decreased from 39% to 30%. With a mortgage increased from 32% to 37%.

In other words, more people are more in debt, no surprise for those following our shows. There are also some important state differences.

In the rental sector, Between 1999–00 and 2019–20, the percentage of Australian households that rent their home from: All landlord types increased from 27% to 31%. A private landlord increased from 20% to 26%. A state or territory housing authority decreased from 6% to 3%. Again there are significant state variations.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.