Category: Economics and Banking

The Pint-Sized Santa Rally Is Unconvincing!

In the immediate run up to the Christmas break, on U.S. exchanges 9.81 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.16 billion averages for the last 20 sessions. So, we can expect to see some price action on lower volumes, and no real surprise that Wall Street’s three main stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday for their biggest daily gains so far in December with help from upbeat Nike and FedEx quarterly earnings, as well as improving consumer confidence and easing inflation expectations from investors.

Beaten-down tech stocks were snapped up as the climb in Treasury yields cooled following data showing that consumer confidence rose more than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%, to 33,376.48, the S&P 500 gained 1.49%, to 3,878.44 and the NASDAQ Composite added 1.54%, to 10,709.37.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists’ forecast for a reading of 101.0.

Data showing a strong consumer sentiment, a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives the bulk of economic growth, eased fears about a recession, maybe….

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Tony Locantro – Year In Review And Ahead

This is an edited version of my recent live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro from Alto Capital in Perth as we reflect on the year that was, and what is coming in 2023. Plenty more Locantro Bingo…

We fixed up the audio glitch which was on the live version https://youtu.be/9E4XqabXhzM

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Discussing Branch Closures On The Radio…

This is a radio segment from ABC Illawarra where I discussed the branch closure issue, my recent research, and why the big banks are putting up a digital smokescreen story to cover deep cost cutting, despite the focus on regional branch closures which will strangle local communities.

We need to put pressure on our Politicians who at the moment are largely implicitly supporting the banks’ cost saving mantra.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Big Australia Is Back, Baby…

The latest ABS stats show a remarkable turnaround in net overseas migration as the “Big Australia” policy is re-activated. But as a result, we are likely to exceed the Government targets, with a large influx of students and workers, which are likely to depress wages growth, put upward pressure on rentals and increase congestion in our major Cities.

Big Australia, without joined up planning, will be another disaster, to the detriment on many ordinary Australians, while supporting the property, business, and education lobbyists.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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This Year The Santa Claus Rally Is On Strike!

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. In this week’s market update we look across the main markets to see what has been happening. Are the markets set for further falls as we approach year’s end?

CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:00 US Macro
4:20 US Markets
6:45 Oil
11:34 Gold
12:25 Europe And UK
14:45 Asia
16:42 China Macro
23:15 Australia
26:08 Crypto
29:15 Conclusion And Close

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Half Point-ius Is The Order Of The Day

Well clearly most central banks got the 50-basis point hike memo, as following the Fed yesterday, with the Bank of England, the ECB and The Swiss Central Bank all hikes their rates by 0.5%. Markets reacted with significant falls, as the higher for longer mantra is threatening future earning, while Treasury yields fell across the curve. This all does put the RBA out of line given its recent 25-basis point rises and suggests we in Australia are behind the ball – significantly. Hey, but then of course Australia is different – right?

U.S. stock indexes finished sharply lower on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its biggest daily decline in over three months, as investors continued to digest tough talk from the Federal Reserve on inflation that revived concerns about a potential U.S. recession.

In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he saw “good news” in UK inflation figures that ticked down from a 41-year high, but there was a concern that consumer prices could leap again and that the central bank has more to do to prevent a wage-price spiral. Speaking after policy makers lifted their key rate a half point to 3.5%, the highest since 2014, Bailey said the risk is that inflation sticks around longer that the BOE is anticipating.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Rates Higher For Longer Says The FED, But Who’re Going To Believe?

So the FED hiked again, and lifted the expected terminal rate to above 5% with the majority of board members agreeing this this projection. So, the markets and the FED are now not on the same page, with traders still betting on lower rates during 2023.

In addition, a slowing growth rate and higher unemployment means future earnings will be lower, suggesting that markets are over optimistic.

Things are as they say, complicated.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Property The Rate Cut That Nobody Noticed | Nucleus Investment Insights

A replay of an investment podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr, with guest Martin North of @WalkTheWorldDFA, as they discuss property rate cut that nobody noticed.

Agenda:

● The percentage of GDP that this year’s rake hikes have consumed
● Discount rates on standard variable rates
● Fake standard variable rates?

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Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/

The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd – AFSL 515796

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live Q&A: Cameron Murray: Mates, Power, Politics & Economics 8pm Sydney Tonight

Join me for a live discussion with Cameron who recently republished his book from 2017 Game of Mates: How favours bleed the nation as Rigged “How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians”.

You can ask a question live!

This book will open your eyes to how Australia really works. It’s not good news, but you need to know it.’ – Ross Gittins

‘You’ll be shocked at how far the Mates have their hand in your pocket.’ – Nicholas Gruen

Australia has become one of the most unequal societies in the Western world, when just a generation ago it was one of the most equal. This is the story of how networks of Mates have come to dominate business and government, robbing ordinary Australians.

Every hour you work, thirty minutes of it goes to line the Mates’ pockets rather than your own. Mates in big corporations, industry groups, government departments, the halls of parliament and the media skew the system to suit each other. Corporations dodge taxes, so you pay more. You pay more for your house and higher interest rates on your mortgage, more for your medicines and transport, and more for your children’s education and insurance, because the Mates take a cut.

Rigged uncovers the pattern of political favours, grey gifts and information-sharing that has been allowed to build up over two decades. Drawing on extensive economic research, it exposes the Game of Mates as nothing less than cronyism on a grand scale across Australia and how we have fallen behind other countries in combating it.

https://www.bigw.com.au/product/rigged-by-cameron-murray-and-paul-frijters/p/235646

We also discuss housing policy and economics in general.

Dr Cameron K. Murray is a Research Fellow in the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney and an economist specialising in property and urban development, environmental economics, rent-seeking and corruption. Professor Paul Frijters teaches at the London School of Economics and was previously Professor of Health Economics at the University of Queensland.

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