No Change in UK Bank Capital Plans Following Stress Tests

Fitch Rating. says that after its latest stress tests, the Bank of England’s (BoE) assessment is that the UK banking sector is adequately capitalised and the results will not force any capital planning revisions. Further sector-wide capital step-ups are unlikely in future.

Capital ratios are likely to remain stable, held up by the BoE’s increased use of countercyclical buffers. These will be built up as lending growth accelerates and will be released when the cycle turns. The BoE’s intention is that banks’ capital planning should become more efficient and flexible. The BoE’s Financial Policy Committee indicated that it considers a Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 11% to be appropriate for the sector. Fitch expect banks to set their internal buffers relative to this level and plan their capital needs relative to the level of sensitivity to stress test inputs.

Results from yesterday’s stress test show that, under the baseline scenario, the seven participating banks are improving their capital positions. But the Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS; BBB+/Stable) and Standard Chartered (A+/Negative) did not meet the BoE’s capital requirements under the stress scenario. Both banks have taken, or are taking steps this year to address capitalisation.

The regulator will use future stress test results to assess individual banks’ capital requirements. Fitch expects the tests to become more sophisticated and more qualitative in nature. This is already the case in the US where the Federal Reserve’s annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review plays an important role in how the country’s leading banks assess their capital planning exercises.

In the UK, annual cyclical tests will be run to capture risks from financial cycles, with the severity of scenarios increasing as risks build up. This should produce more rounded stressed results. Latent risks not captured by the annual cyclical scenario will be introduced every other year when the BoE will run a biannual stress test. Fitch thinks the banks should, over time, be able to anticipate broad movements in the annual cyclical scenario, making it easier for them to set internal buffers above minimum regulatory requirements, based on their expected sensitivity to the regulatory stress test.

The 2015 stress test hurdles – a 4.5% common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio and a 3% leverage ratio – were not particularly onerous. All participating banks met these. But hurdle rates will evolve and banks will need to meet their Pillar 1 minimum CET1 ratios under stressed scenarios, plus any additional requirements set by the regulators under Pillar 2A and buffers for systemically important banks.

ACCC authorises system to facilitate credit reporting

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has granted authorisation for five years to the Australian Retail Credit Association Ltd (ARCA) in relation to principles for exchanging comprehensive consumer credit data between signatory credit reporting bodies and lenders.

ARCA represents lenders and credit reporting bodies in Australia and has developed the principles in a process involving its members and industry since July 2013. This follows reforms to the Privacy Act which expand the type of consumer credit information that can now be shared.

The ACCC received a large number of submissions from industry in response to the application and its draft determination, with general support for the principles.

“Access to more consumer credit information will allow lenders to make better credit decisions, with resulting benefits for consumers in the form of greater financial inclusion for consumers and assisting to reduce consumer over-indebtedness,” ACCC Deputy Chair Delia Rickard said.

“This will lead to increased competition between credit reporting bodies and between lenders, and assist lenders to comply with their responsible lending obligations at less cost.”

The ACCC has considered a concern raised that some provisions are unduly prescriptive and will impose costs on smaller credit providers who wish to have an agreement with more than one credit reporting body. Also consumer advocacy bodies want to include provisions about recording repayments under financial hardship arrangements.

“The ACCC accepts that there are some potential public detriments arising from the costs imposed by the provisions. However, these costs appear to be relatively small and offset by the cost savings and other benefits of these provisions,” Ms Rickard said.

“Each credit provider will make a commercial decision whether or not to provide data and consume data from multiple credit reporting bodies.”

“ARCA is working to resolve the issues around reporting of financial hardship arrangements, and will need to involve industry and relevant regulators. The ACCC will be keen to see this matter resolved in assessing any application for re-authorisation.”

Authorisation provides statutory protection from court action for conduct that might otherwise raise concerns under the competition provisions of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010. Broadly, the ACCC may grant an authorisation when it is satisfied that the public benefit from the conduct outweighs any public detriment.

More information about the application for authorisation is available at Australian Retail Credit Association Ltd Authorisation A91482

IMF Updates Global and National Housing Outlook, Australian Property Overvalued

In the latest release, the IMF have provided data to October 2015, and also some specific analysis of the Australian housing market. We think they are overoptimistic about the local scene, and we explain why.

But first, according to the IMF, globally, house prices continue a slow recovery. The Global House Price Index, an equally weighted average of real house prices in nearly 60 countries, inched up slowly during the past two years but has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels.

chart1_As noted in previous quarterly reports, the overall index conceals divergent patterns: over the past year, house prices rose in two-thirds of the countries included in the index and fell in the other one-third.

house prices around the world_071814Credit growth has been strong in many countries. As noted in July’s quarterly report, house prices and credit growth have gone hand-in-hand over the past five years. However, credit growth is not the only predictor for the extent of house price growth; several other factors appear to be at play.

house prices around the world_071814For OECD countries, house prices have grown faster than incomes and rents in almost half of the countries.

chart2_House price-to income and house price-to-rent ratios are highly correlated, as documented in the previous quarterly report.

chart2_ Turning to the Australia specific analysis, Adil Mohommad, Dan Nyberg, and Alex Pitt (all at the IMF) argue that house prices are moderately stronger than consistent with current economic fundamentals, but less than a comparison to historical or international averages would suggest. Here is just a summary of their arguments, the full report is available.

Argument: House prices have risen faster in Australia than in most other countries, suggesting, ceteris paribus, overvaluation.

OZ-House-Prices-to-GDPCounter argument 1: House prices are in line on an absolute basis – Price-to-income ratios have risen in Australia and now near historic highs. However, international comparisons suggest that Australia is broadly in line with comparator countries, although significant data comparability issues make inference difficult.
Counter argument 2: The equilibrium level of house prices has also risen sharply – Lower nominal and real interest rates and financial liberalization are key contributors to the strong increases in house prices over the past two decades. The various house price modeling approaches indicate that house prices are moderately stronger (in the range of 4-19 percent) than economic fundamentals would suggest.
Counter argument 3: High prices reflect low supply – Housing supply does indeed seem to have grown significantly slower than demand, reducing (but not eliminating) concerns about overvaluation.
Counter argument 4: It is just a Sydney problem, not a national one – The two most populous cities, Sydney and Melbourne, have seen strong house price increases, including in the investor segment. A sharp downturn in the housing market in these cities could be expected to have real sector spillovers, pointing to the need for targeted measures—including investor lending—to reduce risks from a housing downturn.
Counter argument 5: There are no signs of weakening lending standards or speculation – While lending standards overall seem not to have loosened, the growing share of investor and interest-only loans in the highly-buoyant Sydney market, is a pocket of concern.
Counter argument 6: Even if they are overvalued, it doesn’t matter as banks can withstand a big fall – While bank capital levels are likely sufficient to keep them solvent in the event of a major fall in house prices, they are not enough to prevent banks making an already extremely difficult macroeconomic situation worse.

Let us think about each in turn.

Thus, DFA concludes the IMF initial statement is correct, and despite their detailed analysis, their counterarguments are not convincing. We do have a problem.

No Change to the RBA Cash Rate

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia’s terms of trade are falling.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.

Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.

In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.

The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.

At today’s meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.

 

RateSetter sees monumental growth from broker channel

From Australian Broker Online.

Leading peer-to-peer (P2P) lender RateSetter has seen significant growth in broker referrals, with almost one third (30%) of its business now coming through the third party channel.

Speaking to Australian Broker, the chief executive of RateSetter, Daniel Foggo, said that the broker channel is an important avenue of growth for the P2P lender, which specialises in providing personal loans, and he expects business referred through brokers to make up around half of its business volumes in the next year.

“We have 50 brokerage firms referring applicants to us, which reflects around 50 different brokers. They are now referring about 30% of our business volumes to us – so it is quite significant and we see it as an avenue of significant growth for us,” Foggo said.

“We identified [engaging with brokers] quite early on as an opportunity for a broker to provide another service to their customers in a very light touch way. About a year ago we initiated some conversations with brokers about the opportunity. That percentage keeps growing so we expect it to be up around 50% in a year or so.”

There are different referral models a broker can use when referring a client to RateSetter, according to Foggo, depending on how ‘hands-on’ the broker wants to be.

“The first model is very simple for the broker, they literally just send a web link to their customer and the customer thereafter fills out an application form and the broker is kept entirely up to date as to how that application is progressing,” Foggo told Australian Broker.

“The broker is also provided a portal where they can log on anytime to see the status of any application and how much money they have actually made through referring people to us.

“The next model is slightly more hands on the for the broker and in less than a minute they can actually perform a rate estimate for the customer which basically requires them to provide a name and address and some brief details and we will give the applicant an indicative loan rate and it is up to the broker then whether they proceed with the application themselves on behalf of the customer or whether the customer does it directly.”

But whilst RateSetter is seeing significant growth from the broker channel, Foggo told Australian Broker that there is still a common misconception that P2P lenders pose a threat to the market.

“I think, generally, there is a perception that P2P lenders might be a threat over time, but really, we definitely see them as being an opportunity for brokers to broaden out their offering. We don’t think [P2P lenders] are ever going to disrupt their core brokerage market of residential property but we might be able to complement it with personal loans and other areas. It really just adds another strength to the bow of the broker.”

 

Banks Continue the Mortgage Lending Party In A Fog

The latest data form APRA on the banks (ADI’s) portfolios for October 2015 tells us a little, but much is lost in the fog of adjustments which continue to afflict the dataset. In fact, APRA now points to the “corrected” numbers which the RBA publish.

Some banks have reclassified housing loans that originated as investment loans to owner-occupied based on a review of customers’ circumstances or as advised by customers. See the Monthly Banking Statistics Important Notice for more information. These reclassifications will affect growth rates for investment and owner-occupied housing loans for October 2015. Questions about specific data should be directed to the relevant bank.

The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes industry-level housing loan growth rates in Growth in Selected Financial Aggregates. Table D1 in particular contains investment and owner-occupied loan growth rates, which have been adjusted for these reclassifications. Table D1 is available on the RBA website athttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/index.html”

The RBA data shows that investment loans are probably growing a little below 10%, and owner occupied loans at about 6%.

RBA-HL-Growth-D1-Oct-2015The monthly banking stats do not contain these adjustments, so cannot be directly reconciled. However, some interesting points are worth noting nevertheless. First is that total lending for housing rose by 7.5 bn to 1.4 trillion in the month. The RBA lending figure for the whole market (including the non-banks) was 1.5 trillion.  This is another record.  Investment lending sits at 37% on these numbers.  Net movements for OO loans was up 2.73%, whilst investment loans fell 2.95%.

Beyond that, if we take the APRA data at face value, then Westpac continues to reclassify loans. In the monthly movements we see more than $15bn swung into the owner occupied category, with an adjustment to the investment side of the ledger. There were smaller movements in the other banks, but some of this looks like further adjustments.

APRA-MBS-Oct-2015-1So the current market shares are revised to:

APRA-MBS-Oct-2015-2In our modelling of the monthly movements, based on the APRA data, where we sum the monthly movements for the past year (and include adjustments where we can), it appears Westpac is now in negative territory for investment loans, and that the growth rates for the other majors is slowing. The imputed annual market movement is 4.4% against the RBA data above of just under 10%.

APRA-MBS-Oct-2015-4For completeness we also show the owner occupied movements. These too are impacted by reclassifications, and the imputed growth rate is 10%, compared with 6% from the RBA.

APRA-MBS-Oct-2015-3 The net effect of all this is that there is no true information about what individual banks are doing in their loan portfolios. Having tried to talk to a couple of them to clarify the story, I discover they are not willing to share additional data and refer back to the [flawed] APRA data.

The convenient “fog of war” will continue for some time to come. There is also no way to cross-check the RBA adjusted data, and no underlying detailed explanations. We are just supposed to trust them!

 

 

Housing Lending Up Again In October to $1.5 trillion.

The latest RBA credit aggregates for October 2015, released today are not easy to interpret because of the myriad of adjustments.   Housing loans have more reached $1.5 trillion, another record.  But are these numbers trust-worthy?

At the aggregate level, total credit rose a seasonally adjusted 0.61% in the month, or 6.11% in the past year. Lending to business grew 0.84% in the month, and 5.88% in the last year. Business lending as a proportion of all lending sits at 33.2%, from an all-time low of 32.9% in July, but clearly business investment continues to be constrained. Housing grew 0.58% in the month, and 7% in the past year, whilst personal credit fell 0.89% in the month and 0.27% in the year, a sign that households remain cautious.

Credit-Aggregates-Oct-2015Turning to housing finance in more detail, and this is where it get complex; lending for owner occupied loans rose 2.62% in the month, representing 9.41% growth in the past year, while investment lending fell 2.8% in the month, and grew 3.03% in the year. But there are so many adjustments in these numbers, as the banks reclassify more loans, thanks to a combination of internal review, and customer request. Specifically, the differential movement in investment loans is making people check their loans are correctly classified, and RBA estimates $30bn of loans have been switched. Investor loans on book comprise 36.35% of all housing, down from its recent heights of 38.55% in July. The only thing we can be sure of is the numbers will move again next month. I discussed the recent RBA comments on this issue recently.

Housing-Aggregates-Oct-2015The RBA makes the following caveats:

All growth rates for the financial aggregates are seasonally adjusted, and adjusted for the effects of breaks in the series as recorded in the notes to the tables listed below. Data for the levels of financial aggregates are not adjusted for series breaks. Historical levels and growth rates for the financial aggregates have been revised owing to the resubmission of data by some financial intermediaries, the re-estimation of seasonal factors and the incorporation of securitisation data. The RBA credit aggregates measure credit provided by financial institutions operating domestically. They do not capture cross-border or non-intermediated lending.

Following the introduction of an interest rate differential between loans to investors and owner-occupiers a number of borrowers have changed the purpose of their existing loan; the net value of switching of loan purpose from investor to owner-occupier is estimated to have been $30.6 billion over the period of July 2015 to October 2015. These changes are reflected in the level of owner-occupier and investor credit outstanding. However, growth rates for these series have been adjusted to remove the effect of loan purpose changes.

The APRA ADI data is also out today, and we will look at this later.

Mobile Microfinance: Delivering Financial Inclusion to the World’s Poor

From Juniper research.

As outlined in Juniper’s recently published research report, Mobile Financial Services: Developing Markets 2015-2020, the mobile device is becoming the core enabler for the world’s poor to seek financial inclusion, with users of such services set to grow to 283 million by 2020.

Enabling the World’s Poorest

The unbanked populace in developing regions are being introduced to financial services through the use of mobile money platforms. This extends from simply sending remittances, to being able to receive life-saving services and provisions through sophisticated mobile money transactions, which include such offerings as loans, savings, and insurance.

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Barriers to Financial Inclusion in Emerging Markets

The mobile device has proven a game-changer in financial development for poorer nations due to a number of reasons.

Firstly, the fact that consumers can register with their mobile device through widely available outlets and branches in local stores, means that people are no longer required to travel long distances. Thus avoiding the use of poor transport systems, and travel over long distances, to reach major cities to register with a bank.

Additionally, Microfinance providers themselves face a hurdle with regard to the initial start-up costs associated with their services. In many developing nations profit is not feasible by traditional methods and, as a result, MFIs (Mobile Financial Institutions) have been reluctant to set up shop. The mobile form of finance delivery offers cheaper start-up costs, and far reaching services.

Juniper’s Mobile Financial Services research discusses the further implications that mobile banking poses for developing nations, as well as the current trends and key services on offer in this sector. For an overview of the microfinance industry download the white paper Microfinance with Macro Potential.

APRA On Securitisation

APRA has released a consultation paper on proposed revisions to the securitisation regime in Australia, including the explicit recognition of funding-only securitisation. The likely net effect will be to encourage greater use of this vehicle by banks as part of their capital management programmes.  The proposals also reflect the Basel III changes. APRA invites written submissions on the proposals by 1 March 2016.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has released for consultation a discussion paper on its proposals to revise the prudential framework for securitisation for authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs). APRA is also releasing a draft Prudential Standard APS 120 Securitisation (APS 120).

APRA’s objective in revising the prudential requirements for securitisation is to establish a simplified framework, taking into account global reform initiatives and the lessons learned from the global financial crisis. One of these lessons was that securitisation structures had become excessively complex and opaque, and that prudential regulation of securitisation had become similarly complex.

APRA first consulted on initiatives to simplify its prudential framework for securitisation in April 2014. Following consideration of the issues raised in submissions, APRA has amended its proposals in some areas. APRA’s amended proposals include:

  • dispensing with a credit risk retention or ‘skin-in-the-game’ requirement;
  • allowing for more flexibility in funding-only securitisation; and
  • removing explicit references to warehouse arrangements in the prudential framework.

These amended proposals are expected to assist ADIs to further strengthen their funding profile and provide clarity for ADIs that undertake securitisation for capital benefits.

In December 2014, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel Committee) released its updated securitisation framework (Basel III securitisation framework). The changes aim to enhance the Basel Committee’s existing securitisation framework and to strengthen regulatory capital standards.

APRA’s latest proposals incorporate the new Basel III securitisation framework, with appropriate adjustments to reflect the Australian context and APRA’s objectives, and will be applicable equally to all ADIs. Subject to consultation on this discussion paper and draft prudential standard, APRA proposes to implement these changes in line with the Basel Committee’s effective date of 1 January 2018.

In proposing revisions to its securitisation framework, APRA has sought to find an appropriate balance between the objectives of financial safety and efficiency, competition, contestability and competitive neutrality. APRA considers its proposals will deliver improved prudential outcomes and provide efficiency benefits to ADIs, particularly through the explicit recognition of funding-only securitisation within the prudential framework.

APRA invites written submissions on the proposals in this discussion paper by 1 March 2016. APRA also intends to release a draft prudential practice guide (PPG) and reporting standards and reporting forms, for consultation in the first half of 2016. APRA expects that the final prudential standard, PPG, reporting standards and reporting forms, will be released in the second half of 2016.

Background

Q: What is securitisation and is it important in Australia?

A: Securitisation is a form of funding where a ‘pool’ of assets, often residential housing loans, is separated from the originating ADI into a special purpose vehicle (‘SPV’). Cash flows from the pool of assets are used to make payments to investors in debt securities issued by the SPV. These payments are effectively secured by the pool of assets, hence the name “securitisation”.

The debt securities issued to investors will typically have a different order of priority claim over the assets in the pool. The senior class will have first claim, while more junior (or subordinated) class(es) will be utilised to absorb losses in the event of non-performance by some or all of the assets. The senior class of debt securities is therefore normally considered to be of lower risk than that of the underlying pool of assets, and this allows ADIs to source funding on attractive terms.

Sometimes an ADI will arrange for only the senior class to be sold to investors. Alternatively, where an ADI arranges to sell the junior class(es) to investors, they have transferred substantially all the credit risk of the pool to external investors. In these circumstances an ADI may also obtain regulatory capital benefits as APRA will, subject to meeting the specific requirements of APS 120, no longer require the ADI to hold capital against the credit risk of the pool.

Having a robust securitisation market therefore allows ADIs to strengthen their funding profile, and can offer capital management benefits as well. For smaller ADIs that may not have efficient access to unsecured wholesale debt markets, securitisation can be a valuable source of funding and, potentially, capital efficiency. As such, securitisation can support competition in the banking industry.

Q: How has APRA simplified the prudential framework?

A: APRA’s main proposals relating to the simplification of the prudential framework for securitisation are:

  • the explicit recognition of funding-only securitisation. A simple structure facilitates a strong funding-only regime, where the originating ADI retains the junior securities and obtains funding from third parties through the sale of the senior securities. The explicit recognition of funding-only securitisation will assist ADIs to further strengthen their funding profiles;
  • well defined thresholds for capital relief securitisation, which better articulate the requirements to be met for regulatory capital relief; and
  • streamlining the approaches to determining regulatory capital requirements for ADIs’ securitisation exposures, and harmonising them for ADIs using standardised or internally-modelled risk weights.

Q: How will APRA’s proposals assist in facilitating a larger funding-only securitisation market?

A: The explicit recognition of funding-only securitisation, including the flexibility for bullet maturity structures that include a date-based call option, are likely to increase the potential size of the term securitisation market by attracting a broader investor base. These structures have not been permitted within the prudential framework previously.

Q: Why is APRA proposing not to include a ‘skin-in-the-game’ requirement in the prudential framework?

A: Skin-in the-game requirements are intended to address the misalignment of incentives whereby lenders may lack motivation to originate higher quality loans, since they may not have exposure to the loans once they are in a securitisation. A variety of skin-in-the-game requirements have emerged internationally and introducing an additional Australian requirement would run contrary to APRA’s objective of creating a simplified framework. In addition, Australian ADIs already have linkages to their securitisation — such as servicing of the underlying loans and entitlement to residual income — that reinforce incentives to maintain the quality of lending standards.

Q: How is APRA proposing to treat warehouse arrangements?

A: Warehouse arrangements allow ADIs to aggregate assets into pools before securities are issued to third parties. This can enable some ADIs to improve access to wholesale funding markets and raise funds at more competitive rates. The current regulatory requirements for warehouse arrangements have, however, created a gap in the prudential framework, such that less capital is held in the banking system relative to the risk retained in the system.

APRA is seeking submissions on viable approaches that maintain the benefits of warehouse arrangements but also address the gap in the prudential framework. In the absence of any such submissions APRA has indicated it will take a principles-based, rather than rules-based approach and will remove explicit reference to warehouse arrangements in APS 120. In these circumstances warehouse arrangements can still be entered into, but would need to meet the relevant requirements in APS 120 to be considered a securitisation.

Banks Still Hooked On Mortgage Loans – New Investment Loans Up 19%

The latest APRA Property Exposure data, to September 2015 provides an additional perspective on the loan books of the ADI’s. Overall property exposures are a record $1.35 trillion, up from $1.33 trillion in June, and up 9% on September 2014. Within the mix, owner occupied loans rose from $810 bn to $841 bn, up 8.9% from 2014; in response to the changed lending environment, whilst investment loans for residential property fell from $517 bn to $514 bn, the first fall in a long long time (APRA data goes back to 2008), but still up 9.1% from September 2014.  Within the data we can see the adjustments which the ADI’s have made as they reclassify loans. A process which is not yet complete.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-6Investment loans comprise 37.9% of all loans, a fall from 38.9% last quarter, but still worryingly high, and higher than the regulators previously had thought.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-5Looking at some of the key characteristics of loans on book, 40% of loans (by value) have offset facilities, and 35% are interest only loans. There appears to be a slight slowing in the growth of interest only loans, reflecting the changed lending environment, and a slowing in investment lending.  But see below for data on new loans.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-4The volumes of new loans being written is still strong, with close to 100,000 being written each month. Owner-occupied loan approvals were $219.0 billion (59.8 per cent), an increase of $13.1 billion (6.4 per cent) from the year ending 30 September 2014;
investment loan approvals were $147.0 billion (40.2 per cent), an increase of $23.4 billion (19.0 per cent) from the year ending 30 September 2014.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-7The LVR splits show the bulk of loans are in the 60-80% band, and there is a fall in the LVR above 90% being written.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-2The distribution chart below shows this well, and also shows that around 24% of loans are still be written above 80% LVR – at a point in the cycle where house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are probably close to their peaks, and values are falling in some other states.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-3 Data on the characteristics of the new loans shows a fall in new interest only loans being approved (but still more than 40% of new loans are interest only, and as we know these contain more potential risks later). The proportion via brokers sits at 47.7%, just a tad lower than last quarter, but it shows how important the broker sector is, in terms of originating new loans. There are a small number of new loans still being approved outside standard serviceability, at 3.6% in the past quarter, slightly lower than then 3.8% in June, but still higher than in previous times. Given the tighter lending standards, this is a concern. Only 0.4% of new loans are low documentation loans via the ADI’s though more are being written via the non-bank lenders, and so are not caught in these figures.

APRA-Ptpy-Sep-2015-1