I caught up with journalist Tarric Brooker for a look back over the year, and what might be up in 2025, including of course some great slides.
We dwelt on housing and Government policy, the structure of the economy and what might be underlying the dire numbers reported recently. How much is spin and how much is real?
You can catch Tarric’s work at https://www.burnouteconomics.com/
The latest slides are here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-christmas-special
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
There was always going to be a question about the Fed’s December decision, would they react to the latest data, or position ahead of the Trump 2.0 policy set coming in 2025? Well, it looks like both were in the minds of the Monetary Policy committee, as Federal Reserve officials lowered their benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time, but reined in the number of cuts they expect in 2025, signaling greater caution over how quickly they can continue reducing borrowing costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 on Wednesday to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
Markets fell heavily in the US, and Asia, with the DOW and SP500 down more than 2.5% and the NASDAQ more than 3.5% lower. This was the largest post FED market move in 4 years. Falls were widespread. The ASX 200 slid 1.7%.
Bonds were stronger, . The US two-year note’s yield, more sensitive than longer maturities to Fed policy shifts, led the move in Treasuries, rising as much as eight basis points to 4.33%, the highest level since Nov. 25. and the US dollar rose, with the DXY up to 108.10.
The moves have reignited questions about how far central banks across Asia are willing to go to defend their currencies — and how much impact their moves will have. Indonesia’s central bank said on Thursday that it was intervening to push back against a selloff in the rupiah, while the People’s Bank of China used its daily reference rate to support the yuan.
Weaker currencies tend to raise the price of imports to a country, fueling domestic inflation. Further rate cuts could also put more pressure on currencies as investors look elsewhere for returns, exacerbating the impact of dollar strength.
Not good for chances of an RBA rate cut in 2025.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. MSCI’s global equity gauge fell on Friday while bond yields climbed as investors waited for clues about the future path for interest rates and Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 0.53% earlier, breaking a three-week winning streak, as investors sought clarity on Europe’s rate policy amid concerns about economic growth and a potential trade war.
As we run down to the end of the year, a flurry of Central Bank rate announcements signalled a confusing picture, with the RBA holding, the ECB cutting as expected, alongside Denmark at 25 basis points, and Swiss Bank cutting unexpectedly as it sought to head off gains in its currency along with Canada both doing a bigger 50 basis point cut. Next week, we have more Central Bank action, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Japan all joining the party. While investors are betting on a quarter point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, expectations are rising that the pace of rate cuts is poised to slow, with an 80% probability of a hold in January, while cuts in the UK and Japan are not expected. So, you can see monetary policy is all over the shop.
The shadow of president-elect Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs on imports from around the globe, especially China, as well as his promise for massive corporate tax cuts haunts the markets. These policies are seen as fueling inflation, which has been proving sticky even before Trump’s plans are enacted.
Finally, Bitcoin was once again touching $100,000 US, as Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor tweeted: “We are all competing for $45m in #Bitcoin mined daily.”
Curiously, earlier this week, another big Bitcoin supporter and maximalist, the chief executive at JAN3, Samson Mow, shared that he expects miners to stop selling the BTC they mint in the near future. He urged the market to be prepared for that and plan their Bitcoin accumulation accordingly. Earlier this week, Saylor commented on a Bitcoin warning tweet published by Binance founder CZ. Changpeng Zhao issued a major reminder that more than 19 million Bitcoin from 21 million have been mined already. Saylor tweeted that the crypto space is running out of Bitcoin. It was last at 101,300, and will likely wobble around this level for some time.
Given significant uncertainty ahead, markets are generally overvalued, and prone to volatility and potential falls, so cash returning 4 or 5 percent relatively risk free might look a good option for now!!!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Reserve Bank left its cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday in a widely anticipated decision, marking more than a year at that level. The rate-setting board said “some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased” and scrapped a longstanding line that it wasn’t ruling anything in or out on policy. Australia’s central bank said it’s “gaining some confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward target, prompting traders to boost bets on interest-rate cuts starting as early as February.
That said, with the CPI up 16% over 3-years and the real costs much higher to households, this will be seen as a further dampener on household spending and confidence. Other reports recently have been highlighting the pressures on households as I discussed yesterday.
Asked what she had made of the new arrangements in her first full year of press conferences, the governor said it’s been “a bit of a wild ride for me.” Households could rightly say the same!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, starting in the US, crossing to Europe and Asia, and ending in Australia. Markets continue to drive higher, though with significant volatility as Geo-political issues in places like France, Korea, the middle east and Ukraine collide with questions of interest rate trajectory, the AI boom and Trump’s ongoing announcements of more names into his team.
Investors can savor the current market momentum but should prepare for a potential shift after January’s inauguration of Donald Trump, Tom McClellan said in a new Market Report. This shift in sentiment, is tied to uncertainty surrounding a new administration’s policies and the inevitable political battles with Congress. “Wall Street hates unknowns,” he emphasized.
The MSCI Global index of stocks was up 1.3% across the week, and up 20.18% year to date. The STOXX 600 was up 2% across the week logging its seventh consecutive day in advances and its strongest weekly performance in ten, and is up 8.65% year to date, while the S&P 500 advanced modestly early and mostly held those gains into the closing bell in New York, for its 57th record closing high this year up 0.96% across the week and 27.68% year to date. The VIX was trading below 13, while Bitcoin briefly edged back below 100,000.
Markets are expecting the FED to cut rates again at its December meeting, after the US economy added 227,000 jobs last month, mostly in line with expectations, and the three-month average came in at 173,000, confirming expectations that the labour market is cooling, at a moderate pace.
The Australian sharemarket dropped on Friday in a broad sell-off as investors turned cautious ahead of a key job report in the US that may shed light on whether the Federal Reserve will continue easing interest rates this month.
The big banks had a weak session with Westpac down 1.4 per cent to $32.76, while Commonwealth Bank fell 0.6 per cent to $157.06. That’s despite traders ramping up bets of an earlier rate cut by the Reserve Bank. Money markets imply an around 50-50 chance of an easing in February 2025, up from 25 per cent on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 4.35 per cent when it meets next week.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Bitcoin rose as much as 6.1% to $103,801 on Thursday before easing back. The crypto market overall has jumped by roughly $1.3 trillion since Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5 on a platform that includes a tight embrace of the crypto sector. The reason was President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator as he selected Paul Atkins to replace outgoing Securities & Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who cracked down on digital assets after a 2022 market rout exposed fraudulent practices and sparked costly blowups.
Trump has vowed to undo a Biden administration clampdown on digital assets, install friendly regulators and turn the US into the global home of crypto. The Republican even backed the idea of a strategic national Bitcoin reserve, though there are doubts over whether the latter objective is feasible. Trump used to be a crypto skeptic but pivoted as the sector unleashed an election campaign war chest to further its interests.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA meets Tuesday, with economists and markets predicting no change to rates. Indeed, not til later next year will rates likely come down, barring some external shock. Governor Michele Bullock said last month that inflation remains too high to consider a cut in the near term.
At the heart of the problem is the Governments spending a greater share of the economy, and stoking jobs in the public and related sector, like healthcare. States are also spending like drunken sailors, and the federal government is throwing more money at households via the electricity subsides. This is all inflationary.
On the other hand, the RBA did not take the cash rate as high as many other central banks did. As a result we have a shallower path, dodging a recession by the rate water torture will continue for longer. The upshot has been a cautious central bank that has kept the cash rate at 4.35% for the past year. By comparison, the Federal Reserve may cut for a third straight meeting this month.
So we will muddle through into 2025, and possibly face an election with rates at 4.35%. This could well become a cat fight with the RBA caught in the muddle, sorry middle.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments for Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen. As we roll into the end of the year, how are marketing shaping up, and what strategies are most appropriate given the Trump effect?
We look at longer term return trends, discuss the Australian economic breadth, and the China connection, among other things.
Original live stream here: https://youtube.com/live/zYDnJ1yOOhU
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.
Global stock markets rallied on Friday, with Wall Street crowning November with its biggest monthly gain in a year on post-election growth hopes, while the dollar eased amid prospects for firmer rates in Japan and easing in Europe. MSCI’s broad gauge of world stocks rose 0.52%, securing the best month since May, up 3.63%. Europe’s STOXX share index rose 0.58% on the day and was up 0.96% across the month, recording its first monthly gain since August. Technology stocks were the biggest boost to the index, gaining 1.6 per cent.
Of course, U.S. trading was thin the day after Thanksgiving. Many investors made it a long weekend and stocks and bonds closed early, so most month-end position adjustments were done before the holiday. The S&P 500 rose 0.56% to mark the best monthly gain since November 2023 of 5.14%, as investors ploughed $US141 billion into US equities, the heaviest inflows for a four-week period on record, according to EPFR Global data. The US is currently an investor magnet. Nvidia and Apple helped pace the S&P 500 to its 53rd record closing high at 6032.38. The DOW was up 0.42% on the day and 7.54% for the month. The Nasdaq’s 0.83% rise Friday secured a 6.2% gain for the month, it’s best since May.
The stars of the month, though, have been the small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index being very close to achieving the second 10%+ monthly return of 2024. This small-cap index, often seen as a “risk-on” gauge, has broken through key resistance levels and reversed its underperformance trend versus the broader market. This rotation suggests increasing participation across sectors and a broadening of market strength, reinforcing the bullish market thesis.
In Europe, auto stocks were among the worst hit in November, knocked down by concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico could be more damaging for European car makers than any direct tariffs on EU goods. Defence stocks on the other hand, gained the most among sectors, largely due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Speculation about Japanese rate hikes drove a rebound for the yen, which ended with the biggest weekly gain vs the USD since July. The dollar fell 1.18% on the day to 149.76 yen, under pressure after Japan’s government finalised a stimulus budget and inflation in Tokyo came in hotter than economists forecast.
ASX property stocks were the worst performing, sliding 0,7 per cent. Goodman Group shares dropped 0.8 per cent to $37.91 and Westfield parent Scentre was down 1.1 per cent to $3.68.
The falls come as economists from three Australian banks – ANZ, AMP and Bank of Queensland – push out their forecast for a first cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia to May, from February previously.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin briefly traded above $US98,600 btu was last at $96,534. Regardless of the current price level, some predict significant growth is possible with growth through the remaining days of 2024 to hit a high of $200,000. This is of course the point, markets can hope, but Bitcoin and the markets more widely continue to be driven on hopium. Just don’t look down.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in New Zealand and Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. This is data heavy, so strap in.
Global stocks registered a strong weekly gain on Friday while U.S. Treasury yields slipped as markets eyed President-elect Donald Trump’s likely policies and their impact on the U.S. economy, even as bitcoin traded near the $100,000 threshold as bets that Trump’s administration will take a lighter-touch approach to regulation as chairman Gary Gensler plans to step down on January 20, the day Trump is inaugurated.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.33% to 854.13 and gained about 1.4% for the week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index ended the week 1% higher, snapping four straight weeks of losses.
All three Wall Street indexes finished higher and each notched a weekly gain. Industrials, consumer discretionary, financials and consumer staples drove gains while communication services, utilities and technology equities were the biggest losers.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company, ended down 3.2% after the artificial intelligence chipmaker reported strong quarterly results but issued lacklustre sales forecasts having hit a prior record high.
European equity markets closed higher on Friday, despite investors digesting weak economic data as well as the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Data released earlier Friday vividly illustrated the economic woes that Europe is currently suffering, pointing to further interest rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Germany’s DAX rose 1% and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1.4%, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.6%. The pan-European STOXX 600 jumped 1.2%, its best daily performance in nearly two months.
Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, buoyed by strength in chipmaking and cyclical stocks, which helped markets weather heightened tensions over the Russia-Ukraine war.
A rally in oil prices on fears of an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict pushed energy stocks higher, sending the Australian sharemarket to a fresh closing high on Friday. Australia’s ASX 200 benefited from a shift into economically sensitive sectors despite Australian PMI data showing a contraction in both manufacturing and services activity.
The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.9 per cent to 8393.8 at the closing bell, resetting Tuesday’s record of 8374. The index climbed 1.3 per cent this week. The All Ords rose 0.8 per cent.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
