The “Tapping Super For Home Purchase” Conundrum!

Housing affordability is shot, as we have been discussing, thanks to demand stoked by high migration, higher lending multiples as the financial system was deregulation, and higher interest rates mirroring the RBA’s battel to tame inflation. As a result first time buyers are delaying their purchase by several years, and more borrowers are leveraged up to the gills, despite first home grant schemes, and shared equity schemes, which as the Productivity Commission showed did help a few get into the market, but lifted prices for everyone else, so did not help structurally.

Australians are already among the highest carriers of household debt in the world. In fact, according to Domain’s 2024 First Home Buyer Report, an entry-price home in Melbourne costs $678,000. In Sydney, it jumps to $927,250. Looking outside the two major cities reduces the cost to $545,000. To be lucky enough to secure any of these options, a 20 per cent deposit will set you back between $109,000 and $185,000.

So where do prospective buyers get that sort of cash? Well some might be able to get help from the Family Bank, as I showed recently, the average is more than $106,000 now, great if you have wealthy parents. Others may be able to save, but it’s a long road, and whilst interest rates are higher than they have been for some time on deposits, it will take years, and longer still if rates are cut later. Then of course there is the old chestnut, use accumulated super.

This week we got a draft report from the parliamentary committee chaired by prominent superannuation critic Andrew Bragg which has upped the ante on the Coalition’s super for housing policy, suggesting first home buyers should be able to withdraw all their retirement savings to buy a house or use it as collateral to help borrow.

My view is that this is actually a proxy political war on the purpose and nature of superannuation, rather than a real honest discussion about how to fix the broken property market. It is in essence a mixture of misdirection – look over there, not here, and avoid the more critical issues of migration control and increased and better-quality supply of affordable housing. Or in other words, it’s a case of fiddling while Rome burns, again.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Danger: Inequality Rising!

According to a recent report, Australian capital cities are becoming more segregated along socioeconomic lines. And the trend is worst in Sydney. Inequality is rising.

The Conversation published: Our cities are widening the divide between the well-off and the rest. How can we turn this damaging trend around? Written by three researchers from the University of Sydney.

https://theconversation.com/our-cities-are-widening-the-divide-between-the-well-off-and-the-rest-how-can-we-turn-this-damaging-trend-around-222386

They talked about the so called “latte line”, the infamous, invisible boundary that divides Sydney between the more affluent north-east and the south-west. Historically, people north of the line enjoy better access to jobs and education, and can capitalise on rising property wealth. This has reinforced economic inequality.

Sydney emerged as the most segregated and unequal of the five cities. The latte line is getting stronger. Other cities also showed rising inequality.

Bad policy is creating a more and more unequal society. The traditional idea of Australia as an egalitarian society is dying. The property market is the problem, but Governments are ignoring the consequences, and focussing on “announcables” as we discussed yesterday. We need to do better!

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More Housing “Announcables” From The Government…

Those following my regular Property Rants with Edwin will know we have been speculating that there would be budget measures announced next week to help property developers. Well, they could not wait it seems…

The 600,000 plus migrants arriving in Australia this past year are continuing to put more pressure on the housing sector, and helps to explain the fact that rising rents, interest rate hikes and surging living costs in the past few years have inflamed what was already among the world’s least affordable housing rental markets, where record numbers of people can no longer afford to buy after a surge in house prices.

In fact, the federal government wants to find tens of thousands of workers to help build new homes in an attempt to address Australia’s ongoing housing crisis, reacting to pressure from the Construction sector, which already employs about 1.35 million workers across the country.

Of course, the logical step would be to right size migration to match the capacity to build new homes, which with a following wind might be around 150,000 each year. That should be core Government Policy. But no.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest On Household And Post Code Financial Pressure

This is an edited version of a live discussion, as we looked at the latest data on mortgage and rental stress, and many other metrics from our models, which gives us a view of how households are really travelling in this higher for longer rate environment, and in the light of the RBA’s rate decision.

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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another outing with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick around the latest news and data across the Australian Property market.

Can you believe the theoretical housing announcables? Where is demand for property really coming from? What is the story of overseas purchasers?

Plus, we look at the latest numbers, and Edwin was a tip for the week!

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In this weeks rumble, we deep dive into property auctions, which will make agents cry, and also look at the smoke and mirrors in the media. Plus Dusty and Evan wreck Edwin’s studio, as well as discussing some eating advice!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker…

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on.

Here is the link to Tarric’s slides:
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024

Here is the link to the recent discussion with Leith van Onselen, which we mentioned in the show. Inside The Property Twilight Zone! https://youtu.be/OxA_G4Fqw5w

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Once again, our Monday evening chat with property insider Edwin Almeida pulls apart the rubbish being spoken though official channels and gets to the heart of the issues facing property buyers, especially first time buyers.

You could not make this stuff up!!!

Apologies for glitches on the audio tonight, the connection to Edwin was steam powered as we discuss in the show!!!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Property Buyers’ Plans Destroyed By “Higher For Longer” Rate Trends!

The combination of high prices and interest rates is seeing affordability become extremely stretched at a time when cost-of-living pressures more generally are also constraining incomes, according to a recent Westpac Survey.

In response, would-be buyers are pushing the timing of their planned purchases back – less than 10% expect to transact in the next 6mths, the lowest share across all survey waves.

The prospective flow of first home buyers is showing the biggest response to these pressures, planned purchases down materially on last year. Just 2% of those surveyed expecting to become a first time owner in the next year.

Outside of the first home buyer space the story looks to relate more to the interest rate situation. Prospective investor buyers have pared back plans for the next six months.

And sales results for this weekend confirms the slowing market, despite some properties still exceeding reserves in some places. As reported in the AFR, the prospect of interest rates staying high has spooked many buyers, making them less likely to spend above their budgets.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.

The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.

And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.