Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited version of a live Christmas discussion with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we reflected on the property market over the past year, and look ahead into 2024.
We covered underquoting, property price trends, auctions, service charges and granny flats as well as the risks from EV’s.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In our final Friday afternoon chat, for the year Journalist Tarric Brooker and I look back at 2023, with all its ups and downs, and consider the year ahead, which Schrödinger’s cat like could go down quite different paths.
And we look at the most burning question: When Could Australian Interest Rates Be Cut?
Tarric’s slides and articles is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/the-most-burning-question-answered.
Thanks to all those who follow and subscribe, and please like and share the show. We will be back in 2024 for more charts and chat.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Despite the recent recessionary news from New Zealand, low consumer confidence and high interest rates with floating rates around 8.63%, the latest ASB Housing Confidence survey shows that “for the first time in eighteen months, more New Zealanders expect house prices to increase than decrease”. Aucklanders continue to be the most bullish in their house price expectations with a net 39% anticipating prices will rise.
They say more bullish housing market sentiment is very much a New Zealand-wide story. All of the regions we survey are anticipating prices will rise by a net margin of 30-40%. While the housing demand/supply balance varies from region to region, other factors are likely to be driving prices higher – the likelihood mortgage rates are close to peaking and the prospect of a more stimulatory government policy regime – are national in scope.
They conclude, “With recent data generally showing prices no longer falling, Kiwis tend to think the housing market has reached a turning point” Despite this, There’s been little change in the net balance of Kiwis who think now is a good time to buy a house, with that figure unchanged at 6%. Still, that’s a far cry from the mood of the market over much of last year, where by a 20-30% margin, respondents felt it was a bad time to buy.
But the key to this expectation is the high migration flows.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
More from Edwin Almedia, our property insider, as we look at the latest “announcables” relating to housing and migration… how much is smoke and mirrors? The latest from the Treasurer makes the point!
The outlook is higher construction costs, a tilt towards migrants with more capacity to buy property, and the risk of more low quality construction, as high-rise height limits are relaxed.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Wednesday in Wellington. This was as expected by most economists. But the central bank has been spooked by stronger near-term growth that’s being driven by the return of international students and immigrants after the pandemic.
As a result, there was a significant surprise, raising its forecasts for the OCR — implying a greater chance of an increase — and predicting no reduction until mid-2025.
This was the final policy meeting of the year and said it will hike them in 2024 if inflation doesn’t decelerate fast enough.
“We are confident we are restrictive with our monetary policy stance now and that provides us the ability to wait, to watch the data, but certainly highlight our willingness to move if we have to,” Governor Adrian Orr told reporters. “We are showing an upward bias to the interest rate, but it’s not a probability.”
Markets are out of kilter with the RBNZ, as Investors have in recent weeks ramped up bets that central banks globally, including the RBNZ, will pivot to rate cuts in the first half of 2024 as price pressures wane. But Orr said the RBNZ is concerned that inflation has been outside its 1-3% target band for so long, and that record immigration and a housing market recovery are adding to upside risks.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from Edwin, our property insider, as the trends in Sydney and Melbourne property diverge further. We also look at the latest news and political positioning around property and we update the WeChat news as well.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The massive hike in interest rates imposed by the RBA in its attempt to squeeze out inflation is not hitting all household cohorts’ to the same extent. Indeed, some older households with savings and no mortgages are enjoying their wealth boost, after years of low rates eroded their incomes. It is worth noting that the rate of rate increases is the sharpest lift in mortgage rates on record.
Overall mortgage stress, defined in negative cash flow terms has never been higher, as we discussed in our recent live show.
Within that, the consequences are perhaps most profound for younger, often more leveraged households. Indeed, the 2023 Risk Radar Report from credit bureau Experian shows that recent first home buyers that purchased in 2019 or later are suffering the highest rates of mortgage stress, as well as missed payments.
A decline in living standards will most acutely be felt by younger cohorts, as well as those with big mortgages held into retirement and beyond.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Tarric is back for another Friday discussion, charts and all. What’s happening to the Australian economy, and what does it mean for households?
Tarric’s slides are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-24th-november-2023
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and co-founder of Macrobusiness. Leith has been leading the charge in highlighting how high migration is killing the property market. Tonight we look at the latest economic trends, and also will compare New Zealand with Australia.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider as we look at the divergence of the market in Sydney and Melbourne, the new state of origin quest between NSW and QLD, and how not to be bullied by agents desperate for a sale.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.