Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The latest REINZ figures for December 2022 show further falls in prices and sales volumes, linked directly to the higher interest rates and reduction in borrowing power, across most of New Zealand.
https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery
Expect more falls as the RBNZ drive rates higher as they chase down inflation.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is a edited version of a live debate between Senator Gerard Rennick and Economist John Adams as we examine economic and monetary policy, debt, and the role of the RBA and other regulators. How can we improve the economic outcomes for Australia, and Australians? Who is to blame for high inflation and home prices?
Original stream: https://youtu.be/DPZNSTeAFkk with chat.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=283596
https://www.adamseconomics.com.au/
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Another outing for our Property Insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the latest numbers, trends and market movements.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another look at recent price cuts on the property portals. this time in and around the Gold Coast, thanks to Cookie for the research. No surprise that some of the fastest falls across the country are in southeast QLD.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest incentives for NSW first time buyers, the latest from China as people there vote with their feet on property, the numbers, and of course a special chat about underquoting.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Interesting article in The Conversation looking at how wealth inequality has been amplified due to home price distortions and how this flows into some households at the expense of others.
They suggest tax reforms and planning reforms, but are silent on the main driver of this inequality – monetary policy, credit availability and lending policy. This is not the first-time analysts have chosen to ignore the elephant in the room.
The truth is the financialisation of property, as a policy, coupled with ultra-low interest rates and ultra-loose policy caused the problem. Question is, will this be addressed? We think not, given the power of the financial and construction sectors and their influence on governments of all persuasions.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In the first Antispruik show of 2023, we look at recent price falls across the portals covering areas of Western Australia. This is data from the property portals extracted by Cookie, and whilst they might not be statistically accurate, the more than 100 examples tell a compelling story.
Thanks as always to Cookie for his efforts.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My thesis and modelling show that availability of credit – driven by interest rates and borrowing capacity is by far the largest driver of home prices. Cut rates and flood the economy with cheap money and property prices are pushed higher, as happened through the COIVD period. Lift rates, tighten borrowing power, and remove stimulus, and prices fall. This thesis has been proved over the pst three years, with Australia’s housing market suffered its biggest annual decline since 2008 last year as sharp interest rate hikes sapped buying power and put off investors.
CoreLogic released their latest national Home Value Index which fell 5.3% in 2022, the first decline since 2018. Annual falls were the biggest in the bellwether market of Sydney, which slid 12.1%, followed by an 8.1% drop in Melbourne. National values declined 1.1% in December, according to the report.
Remember that The Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 3 percentage points since May to 3.1% and is widely expected to hike one or two more times this year. RBA officials have generally publically expressed confidence in Australia’s housing market, highlighting that prices are still higher than at the onset of the pandemic, though recent FOI data underscores their concern falling prices will sap confidence. This despite unemployment at the lowest level in almost 50 years, so they argue most borrowers are well placed to meet their commitments and so loan arrears are likely to be limited.
But overall Australia’s A$9.4 trillion housing market has declined 8% from the recent peak reached in April, after surging 28.6% from a pandemic-induced trough, CoreLogic said.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My first 2023 Rant with Edwin Almeida, our Property Insider. Edwin takes a look at the latest numbers, and tables his suggestions for what will happen in this potentially prickly year!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A review of the performance of our channel last year, with the top 12 shows and main themes emerging, plus some thoughts about our focus for 2023. Thanks for all your support through the year!