The UK Property Market Is Slowing!

UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers.

No surprise then that Britain’s property market showed signs of slowing to a crawl after a jump in mortgage costs reduced both buyer demand and the volume of sales. The figures add to evidence that the housing market is weakening after the quickest series of increases in interest rates lifted the cost of mortgages. Lenders including Nationwide and Halifax say property prices are falling, and some expect a peak-to-trough slump of 10% to 12% is “very likely.”

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey for July 2023 says at the national level, new buyer enquiries posted a figure of -45%, like last month’s figure of -46%. As a result, this metric continues to signal a sharp downturn in buyer demand following the latest escalation in mortgage interest rates. When viewed at the level of the English regions and the four nations, all parts of the UK display a firmly negative return for new buyer enquiries over the month.

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A Dose Of Reality, With Tony Locantro

I caught up with Tony Locantro from Alto Capital in Perth , to discuss the current dynamics across markets, property and more. Managed to fill my bingo card again, but the messages are so relevant given the current state of play!

https://www.altocapital.com.au/about

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DFA Live Replay 20 June 23 – Latest Financial Stress Analysis

This is an edited version of our latest live stream where we look at the latest economic data, our modelling and post level results.

We also corrected the audio which in the live version was a bit all over the place!

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In our latest show we review some of our predictions from earlier in the year, look at why the Chatterers are buying apartments in specific locations, and parse the latest numbers. Also, an important message for anyone considering renovating a bathroom or kitchen in a high-rise!

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The Home Price Head Fake!

CoreLogic data for May shows an acceleration in home prices, the strongest since November 2021. However, many risks are stacking up and I think its too soon to be talking of a home price recovery – values are still well down from recent peaks. And the distribution of the rises are distorted towards to upper end of the market, where small volumes of sales can mess with the data.

Given higher rates ahead, the mortgage cliff, and a potential recession, this is likely a false dawn at best, at worse a head fake where some will get caught out.

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Inflation Says More Rate Rises Are Ahead!

We look at the latest monthly CPI figures which were stronger than anticipated, and Phil Lowes’ outing in front of the Senate (maybe his last?).

It is highly likely that further rate increases are on the cards, despite the record high debt burden, acknowledge by the Governor. And whilst there was a focus on productivity improvement, the truth is, the war on wages growth continues.

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Mortgage Cliff Crashes Into Rising House Prices!

Higher mortgage rates are starting to catch up on a number of fixed rated holders. Indeed over the next few months, higher home prices and the rate cliff will collide! What may happen?

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