I have discussed before the spate of announcables from the current Government – events and releases which give the impression of taking bold actions which grab headlines, but which in reality signifies very little at all. Housing was a standout example, but now we have another, the jobs plan.
Which in fact was a scene resembling The Hollowmen. It took 260-pages and six cabinet ministers to announce the jobs plan, and according to Jim Chalmers he wants to reduce the non-inflationary jobless rate so 2.8 million people who are not working, or wanting to work more hours, can bolster the labour market and improve their wellbeing.
So, the federal government will put “full employment” at the heart of Australia’s policy frameworks and institutions, to drive down structural unemployment over time and keep unemployment as low as possible. And they say the benefits of a strong labour market are not equally shared.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In the UK, Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) is the highest we have seen since comparable records began in 2001. The Office for National statistics said In May to July 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%, the same as the previous three-month period and the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.
Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.5% in May to July 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. But we can see workers are chasing real wages growth, as inflation eases, just a little with annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for total pay up for the year by 1.2% and for regular pay a year on year rise of 0.6%.
In Australia, The Fair Work Commission released their latest data on Monday which revealed that average pay rises in new collective agreements in Australia have soared to a high of 4.7 per cent, closing in on inflation and putting pressure on wage forecasts. The increase is the highest average recorded since the commission’s data series began in mid-2022, surpassing previous highs of 4.4 per cent and is based on 174 deals lodged from August 12 to August 25, extended to 63,553 employees.
But with inflation at 6% on the quarter to June 2023, and the monthly series at 4.9%, on average workers are still going backwards in terms of real take home pay after inflation.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
An important debrief on the past weeks Senate Inquiry into Regional Branch closures, use of cash and other banking issues, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.
This is an edited version of our recent live show, as I discuss the latest economic and housing news with Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, Leith van Onselen, who is also the co-founder of Macrobusiness.
We do a deep dive on the Population Ponzi and why housing shortages are likely to remain with us for ever. Its by design.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
You’ve probably been reading about the Evergrande collapse and may have some important questions about what China’s property market crisis means for you and your nest egg.
Let me be honest with you – all the indications are pointing to dark days ahead for the global property market. In addition to China’s economic woes, interest rates are not showing any signs of easing, the cost of living is still high, and unemployment is set to spike too.
And property values are still 40% over long-term trends, so there’s risk of a fall – and it could be fast! But not all property is equal, which is why you need to be proactive in planning the road ahead, and get granular to safeguard and grow your portfolio through tough times.
I’m joining Greg Owen from Goko Group to talk through these issues in an exclusive live Zoom call, and I’d love to see you there. There are two sessions to choose from:
Session 1: Wednesday, September 20th @ 7pm (Sydney) / Wednesday, September 13th @ 10am (London)
Session 2: Thursday, September 21st @ 11am (Sydney) / Wednesday, September 20th @ 9pm (New York)
I can’t understate the importance of taking swift and targeted action to protect your nest egg and put yourself in a position to keep growing your wealth.
Please don’t miss this opportunity. Simply click here to register:
Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party and I discuss the latest moves in the battle to retain cash in society ahead of the next Senate hearings which are scheduled for next week. The battle is reaching a head, and there is everything to play for, not least as Adrian Orr put it recently, its a question of social cohesion!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Well, the slew of economic data in the past few days suggests the UK economy is in a bit of a pickle, with a mix of recessionary signals pulling against some more positive wages news (at least for some). And it highlights the dilemma facing many Central Banks, as their data dependency pulls them in multiple directions and highlights how complex the current environment actually is.
It seems the economy is losing steam, though that’s partly driven by industrial action and unusually wet weather but its tracking well below the Bank of England’s growth forecast for 3Q, and yet cost pressures in the UK are running too high for the central bank to be bounded by growth concerns just yet.
The latest data from the ONS showed that the UK economy shrank at the fastest pace in seven months in July as strikes and wet weather hit activity harder than expected, reviving fears that a recession may be under way. Gross domestic product slipped by 0.5% following a 0.5% gain in June. Economists had expected a contraction of 0.2%. Services, construction and manufacturing all shrank.
The main cause of the contraction was the dominant services sector, which fell 0.5% in July. Cool and rainy weather depressing retail sales during the month. Output was also dented as doctors, teachers and rail staff walked off the job in their disputes with the government over pay.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Yesterday I went through the latest GDP outturn, and underscored the per-capita recession which is now in play across Australia.
Others see the same, with CBA’s economics team tipping that Australia would plunge deeper into a per capita recession as aggregate GDP growth falls below 1% while population growth remains above 2%:
They said that “Real GDP per capita declined by 0.3% in the quarter, following the same decline in Q1 23. Real GDP per capita is 0.6% below its peak in Q4 22 and 0.3% lower over the year”.
“Population growth has been much stronger than anticipated by policymakers. Working-age population has increased by 2.8%/yrin July. The increase in population is supporting overall GDP, but the economy is contracting on a per capita basis”.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
My latest chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in the rental crisis, more demand from certain groups for property which can be subdivided, and more horror pictures of property gone wrong.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Australian government this week released the latest iteration of its Intergenerational Report, the sixth since the first was published in 2002. It is an intensely political document of nearly 300 pages.
Powerful forces will continue to shape Australia’s economy over the coming decades including population ageing, expanded use of digital and data technology, climate change and the net zero transformation, rising demand for care and support services, and increased geopolitical risk and fragmentation. These forces will influence the future path and structure of our economy and change how Australians live, work, and engage with the world.
The Australia of the 2060s will be very different from the one we know today. It will be older, with slower economic growth, a big “care” economy, and an export sector that is radically transformed due to the imperatives of climate change. But the finances will be under pressure, and migration will still be a critical element. Housing will continue to be a disaster.
Slower economic growth will place pressure on the tax base at a time of rising costs, creating a long-term fiscal challenge. Despite recent improvements in Australia’s fiscal position, debt-to-GDP remains high by historical standards. Long-term spending pressures are also rising across health, aged care, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), defence and interest on government debt.
The economy will be about two and a half times as big, and real incomes are expected to be 50% higher by 2062-63. On the downside, economic growth will be slow – growing at an average pace of 2.2% over the coming four decades, from an average of 3.1% over the previous four decades.
Population will also increase more slowly than previously – by an average of just 1.1% annually. The report projects 40.5 million people in the early 2060s.
Migration is projected to fall as a share of the population. While the number of people 65 and over will double, Australia is still expected to have a younger population than most advanced countries.
Better policy decisions can still reshape the future, but the current mob are on the same ol same ol track, to the benefit of corporations and the well off but not for ordinary Australians who are trapped in this crazy policy vacuum.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
