Politics – Page 29 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Pickled Brits Anyone?

Well, the slew of economic data in the past few days suggests the UK economy is in a bit of a pickle, with a mix of recessionary signals pulling against some more positive wages news (at least for some). And it highlights the dilemma facing many Central Banks, as their data dependency pulls them in multiple directions and highlights how complex the current environment actually is.

It seems the economy is losing steam, though that’s partly driven by industrial action and unusually wet weather but its tracking well below the Bank of England’s growth forecast for 3Q, and yet cost pressures in the UK are running too high for the central bank to be bounded by growth concerns just yet.

The latest data from the ONS showed that the UK economy shrank at the fastest pace in seven months in July as strikes and wet weather hit activity harder than expected, reviving fears that a recession may be under way.
Gross domestic product slipped by 0.5% following a 0.5% gain in June. Economists had expected a contraction of 0.2%. Services, construction and manufacturing all shrank.

The main cause of the contraction was the dominant services sector, which fell 0.5% in July. Cool and rainy weather depressing retail sales during the month. Output was also dented as doctors, teachers and rail staff walked off the job in their disputes with the government over pay.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Households Have Nowhere To Hide!

Yesterday I went through the latest GDP outturn, and underscored the per-capita recession which is now in play across Australia.

Others see the same, with CBA’s economics team tipping that Australia would plunge deeper into a per capita recession as aggregate GDP growth falls below 1% while population growth remains above 2%:

They said that “Real GDP per capita declined by 0.3% in the quarter, following the same decline in Q1 23. Real GDP per capita is 0.6% below its peak in Q4 22 and 0.3% lower over the year”.

“Population growth has been much stronger than anticipated by policymakers. Working-age population has increased by 2.8%/yrin July. The increase in population is supporting overall GDP, but the economy is contracting on a per capita basis”.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

My latest chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in the rental crisis, more demand from certain groups for property which can be subdivided, and more horror pictures of property gone wrong.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Australia’s Crazy Mixed-Up Future Means Less Home Ownership And Higher Taxes

The Australian government this week released the latest iteration of its Intergenerational Report, the sixth since the first was published in 2002. It is an intensely political document of nearly 300 pages.

Powerful forces will continue to shape Australia’s economy over the coming decades including population ageing, expanded use of digital and data technology, climate change and the net zero transformation, rising demand for care and support services, and increased geopolitical risk and fragmentation. These forces will influence the future path and structure of our economy and change how Australians live, work, and engage with the world.

The Australia of the 2060s will be very different from the one we know today. It will be older, with slower economic growth, a big “care” economy, and an export sector that is radically transformed due to the imperatives of climate change. But the finances will be under pressure, and migration will still be a critical element. Housing will continue to be a disaster.

Slower economic growth will place pressure on the tax base at a time of rising costs, creating a long-term fiscal challenge. Despite recent improvements in Australia’s fiscal position, debt-to-GDP remains high by historical standards. Long-term spending pressures are also rising across health, aged care, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), defence and interest on government debt.

The economy will be about two and a half times as big, and real incomes are expected to be 50% higher by 2062-63. On the downside, economic growth will be slow – growing at an average pace of 2.2% over the coming four decades, from an average of 3.1% over the previous four decades.

Population will also increase more slowly than previously – by an average of just 1.1% annually. The report projects 40.5 million people in the early 2060s.

Migration is projected to fall as a share of the population. While the number of people 65 and over will double, Australia is still expected to have a younger population than most advanced countries.

Better policy decisions can still reshape the future, but the current mob are on the same ol same ol track, to the benefit of corporations and the well off but not for ordinary Australians who are trapped in this crazy policy vacuum.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The Elephants In The Room Of Property Prices

Home prices are driven by a combination of demand where population growth thanks to high migration puts upward pressure on prices; supply where more property for sale puts downward pressure on prices, and availability of credit as the catalyst for transactions to occur.

Much of the debate is currently centered on supply side issues. As I discussed last week, Outgoing Governor Phil Lowe, urged governments at all levels to work together to address the problem of housing affordability. Notably, he dismissed rent controls as a short-term fix that would provide immediate relief by reducing the incentive to fix the key problem: supply.

“There aren’t short-term solutions here. The solution has to be putting in place a structure that makes the supply side of the housing market more flexible and that means zoning and planning deregulation and it means state and local governments being part of the solution.”

This means that first time buyer incentives, or rental support just make the problem, worst – something which I have highlighted over the years (and which by the way the Productive Commission also confirmed).

But my fear is that the un-defused credit bomb will be skirted around and as the supply side elephant is paraded through the streets. But it is the credit Elephant in the room which should be addressed, even if it shrinks bank balance sheets and profits. If not, nothing will fundamentally change and prices will remain as out of whack as they currently are.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Hitting The Wall As Debt Spikes And Fitch Asks The Question!

This year’s $6.5 trillion rally in stocks hit a wall, following hot labor-market data and a ramp-up in Treasury issuance just a day after a US credit downgrade by Fitch Ratings.

As a result, Wall Street finished lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down for a second straight day as investors took profits on five months of gains a day after rating agency Fitch cut the U.S. government’s credit rating.

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA late on Tuesday, citing expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years as well as growing government debt. Fitch was the second major agency to cut the country’s rating. In 2011 Standard & Poor’s stripped the country of its triple-A grade.

Pushing back hours before her department is set to ramp up its borrowing to plug a ballooning budget deficit, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the downgrade “arbitrary” and “outdated.” The economy has recently shown signs of resilience and the debt limit was ultimately lifted, she noted.

The US budget deficit surged to record levels when the government spent heavily to support households and businesses as Covid shut down the economy. It shrank last year, but now it’s widening again. The federal deficit hit $1.4 trillion for the first nine months of the current fiscal year, almost triple the year-earlier figure. The US Treasury this week boosted its borrowing forecast for the current quarter to $1 trillion, well above the $733 billion it had predicted in May.

Fitch’s downgrade is a signal that the US needs to get its budgetary process in order ahead of what looks like another political fight this fall, and possibly another government shutdown.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.