No Real Wage Rise For You, Or You, Or You..!

The international club of central banks responsible for controlling inflation has backed Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe by warning that wage-price spiral risks are “flashing red” and calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid 1970s-style stagflation.

If central banks failed to tame inflation and wage claims, interest rates would need to rise sharply, risking “large drops in asset prices [that] could trigger a sharp recession and financial stresses”, the Bank for International Settlements said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has conceded the disorderly end of its yield curve control policy in November last year triggered market volatility and dislocation, alongside damage to the bank’s reputation.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Hard Landing Incoming: With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker – @avidcommentator on Twitter. The slides are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-24th-june-2022

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live Q&A With Leith van Onselen 8pm Sydney

Join us for a live discussion about the current state of the economy, with a specific focus on Australian property with Leith van Onselen, the Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.

The RBA reported on their yield curve control today, and Phil Lowe spoke about rising mortgage rates – how high will they go – and what are the consequences?

You can ask a question live via the YouTube chat.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live Q&A – Robbie Barwick 8pm Sydney Tonight

Join us for a live discussion about the current state of finance and politics post the election, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party. We will look at bail-in, derivatives risks, and cash freedom, as well as the national bank. [Power supply permitting!!]

You can ask a question live via YouTube chat.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Emergency Alert! The System is quickly breaking

On Friday, the exposing of the monstrous lie that inflation has peaked was a game changer. The reaction in the markets was a swift and fundamental economic and financial market relationships altered. US Inflation for May 2021 came in at 1% for the month vs expectations of 0.7% or 8.6% vs expectations of 8.3%.

CPI came in at 0.6% for the month vs expectations of 0.5% or 6.0% versus expectations of 5.9%. Over the weekend, there is a lot of more chatter that inflation is going to continue going higher – including on mainstream financial channels such as CNBC – over the coming months.

This has put immediate pressure on the US Federal Reserve who meets on Tuesday-Wednesday US time to be more aggressive in rising rates. This could include by raising rates by 75 or 100 basis points. It is important to note that quantitative tightening is expected to commence this week.

The exposing of the monstrous lie that inflation has peaked has now resulted in a breakdown of the financial system. All three risks inflation risk, credit risk and liquidity risk are now all coming into play. There will be more pressure on central banks to deal with inflation risk – if they do, this rises credit and liquidity risks – which can easily result in markets freezing and economic agents (households, corporations, banks and government) defaulting on debt.

A material credit and liquidity risk event can easily plunge the financial system into a new financial crisis. Any attempt to prevent this will lead to soaring stagflation – with a major crash in the share market and cryptocurrencies. The timetable for the pivot (which Adams is anticipating) has just dramatically quickened. All eyes on what the FOMC does on Wednesday, US time.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Welcome To The Danger Zone: With Tarric Brooker

My latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker @AvidCommentator on Twitter. We look at the latest economic and financial news, and consider the consequences.

Tarric’s slides are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-10th-june-2022

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

No Mercy for the Debt Sheep sent to the Slaughter

Yesterday, the RBA raised its official cash rate by 0.5% to now sit at 0.85%. This increase was above market expectations and was the RBA has signalled that more rate rises are coming. This is particularly so given that the RBA has signalled that inflation is expected to go higher, not lower in the coming months.

Adams and North in the past two months have been warning that rates will go up, however, the key question is now how much pain is the RBA willing to inflict before it becomes too much and they need to stop. This is the 64 million question which no one is able to forecast – including the RBA board. The RBA Board signalled that the one areas that they remain unsure are households and what impact will rising interest rates have on consumption.

However, one of the most critical points that has emerged from the mainstream media coverage is that many people don’t accept the level of mortgage and rental stress outlined in the DFA dataset set. North suggests that mortgage stress is at 43% which would signify a major economic problem – however, the banks and market economists suggest that Australian households are in a strong position to handle these jobs.

As Adams and North mentioned in the last show – there will be a certain percentage of Australian households who will be sacrificed and they will go to the wall. There will be no compassion to these particular households. Especially those who have purchased in during 2022 and who likely took a variable mortgage – these are the sheep that will go to the slaughter. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Down The Rabbit Hole: Who Is Making The News?

This is the latest in my series of “tin-foil” discussions with my friend George, this time looking at the media. We consider who sets the agenda, whether “truth” is objective, and how we tell.

A warning, some of George’s view are quite different from those in the MSM, but as I say, diversity of voice is important.

Thanks to George for editing the show.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

An Opera Of Canaries: Market Update for 4th June 2022

Yes, folks, the collective noun for a collection of Canaries is an Opera, and it seems fitting given recent events, and data. In this weeks market review we start with the US – I am often asked why I focus here, and it is because as the USD is so dominant and the US Markets so big, our markets follow like a playful puppy, we hardly think for ourselves, but ape what the US did. And we will also cover Europe and Asia, where several markets were closed on Friday before coming back to Australia.

US stocks resumed their trend of weekly losses after strong hiring data cleared the way for the Federal Reserve to remain aggressive in its fight against inflation. Treasuries fell and the dollar strengthened against peers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.7%, or 349 points, the Nasdaq fell 2.5% and the S&P 500 fell 1.7%.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Will The RBNZ Be Forced To Cut Rates Later?

The Reserve Bank Of New Zealand is driving the OCR higher, as we saw last week. But the question is, for how long, and will they eventually have to reverse course?

New research suggests they may have to turn turtle next year as the economy stalls, and household budgets are squeezed.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/