As More Households Are Crushed, Bankers Talk Their Own Book On Easing Mortgage Lending Rules!

Guess what, Bankers are looking at ways to ease lending standards to pump the market some more, as bank margins are under pressure at a time when lending growth is already strong, and more households are already in financial difficulty.

The value of new housing loans have risen by 17.9% since March 2023, to $27.6 billion dollars and were up 3.1% in March, according to the ABS.

The ABS also released their latest estimates of real living costs for households, they said Employee households recorded the largest annual rise in living costs of all household types with a rise of 6.5 per cent,

No surprise then that the DFA surveys for April showed a further rise in mortgage stress, to more than half of mortgaged borrowers, with many first-time borrowers and young growing families most exposed. In addition, rental stress remains very high, underscoring the pressures created by bad policy over many years, making housing unaffordable. On my live show coming up on Tuesday, we will look at this is more detail, and do a further post code deep dive.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says there might be scope to reduce buffers for people refinancing — the banks already have some room to do that — but cautions against significant changes to lending laws.

“We’ve gone through a very difficult time in the economy in terms of the massive rise in interest rates, and we’ve come through — so far anyway — at a relatively low level of arrears,” he notes.

“That partly reflects the responsible lending that the banks have been undertaking over the last few years. If we had to take a dramatic easing in lending standards, and the rules around that, the risk is that the next cycle could be far worse.”

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The Stupidest Tale Of All!

Once upon a time, in a land down under, there was a Government who promised to build 1.2 million homes, over five years, or 240,000 per year or 60,000 homes per quarter. And he huffed and he puffed, but despite everything, the best he could manage, at least in the year to March 2024 was 162,600, homes approved, around 77,000 fewer than the Albanese government’s target and the lowest level since March 2013.

Dwelling construction has collapsed to at least decade-lows at the same time as population growth has surged by a record 660,000.

The only way to solve Australia’s housing shortage is to reduce net overseas migration to historical levels of less than 120,000 per year. Net overseas migration must be lowered below the nation’s ability to build housing and infrastructure.

If we did that, we could move from Albo’s fairy tales, to something more realistic, despite the reality that new construction will continue to grind lower, while existing projects are taking ever longer to complete.

It is truly a fine mess, created by at least 20 years of bad policy, but Albo is chief fairy on top of the tree. Time for mass policy change. Otherwise, population demand will forever exceed supply. And many ordinary Australians will be left out in the cold.

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In this weeks rumble, we deep dive into property auctions, which will make agents cry, and also look at the smoke and mirrors in the media. Plus Dusty and Evan wreck Edwin’s studio, as well as discussing some eating advice!

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker…

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on.

Here is the link to Tarric’s slides:
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024

Here is the link to the recent discussion with Leith van Onselen, which we mentioned in the show. Inside The Property Twilight Zone! https://youtu.be/OxA_G4Fqw5w

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Once again, our Monday evening chat with property insider Edwin Almeida pulls apart the rubbish being spoken though official channels and gets to the heart of the issues facing property buyers, especially first time buyers.

You could not make this stuff up!!!

Apologies for glitches on the audio tonight, the connection to Edwin was steam powered as we discuss in the show!!!

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Property Buyers’ Plans Destroyed By “Higher For Longer” Rate Trends!

The combination of high prices and interest rates is seeing affordability become extremely stretched at a time when cost-of-living pressures more generally are also constraining incomes, according to a recent Westpac Survey.

In response, would-be buyers are pushing the timing of their planned purchases back – less than 10% expect to transact in the next 6mths, the lowest share across all survey waves.

The prospective flow of first home buyers is showing the biggest response to these pressures, planned purchases down materially on last year. Just 2% of those surveyed expecting to become a first time owner in the next year.

Outside of the first home buyer space the story looks to relate more to the interest rate situation. Prospective investor buyers have pared back plans for the next six months.

And sales results for this weekend confirms the slowing market, despite some properties still exceeding reserves in some places. As reported in the AFR, the prospect of interest rates staying high has spooked many buyers, making them less likely to spend above their budgets.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Inside The Property Twilight Zone! With Leith van Onselen…

This is an edited version of my latest live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and Co-Founder of Macrobusiness.

We will dive into the latest in property, economics and politics, to try and make sense of what is happening. What’s the future trajectory of the markets? How will Albo’s announcables play in? What will happen to migration? And can we learn from what is happening in New Zealand?

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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.

The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.

And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Government Housing Targets An Impossible Dream As Building Approvals Shrink!

The ABS released data on the total number of dwellings approved in February recently. They say that despite growth in private houses in the month, the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 3.0%, following a 2.7% January decrease.
Specifically, approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 24.9 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms, driven by a fall in the number of approved large apartment projects. In contrast, approvals for private houses rose 10.7 per cent in February.

This continues to confirm the massive gap between the Government aspiration of 1.2 million new homes over the next 5 years. On a straight-line basis, this translates to a target of 240,000 each year – which by the way is still way under the number needed to house the surging migrants and fill existing shortfalls.

So why not tackle the root cause issue here, too high migration? Entrepreneur Dick Smith fears today’s young people will have no savings and be forced to live in Chinese-style high-rise apartments unless immigration is urgently slashed, according to an article in the Daily Mail.

The veteran businessman and philanthropist says they need to understand the connection between a surging population and climate change. The entrepreneur, who turned 80 last month, fears homes with a backyard in Australia’s capital cities will no longer exist by 2050.

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It’s Another Fine Mess… With Tarric Brooker!

Our latest Friday Afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we look at the current data, which questions potential rate cuts, and housing trends, as demand stays strong while supply is limited.

Below the water line we examine some of the underlying assumptions behind the numbers, and how politics have changed.

Worse, the structural issues can be traced back to a series of political decisions, which were policy errors – when will they come clean?

Tarric’s charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-april-2024 if you want to follow along.

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