Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
My latest reflections on the problems facing prospective first-time buyers, as borrowing power is shrinking faster than prices, and expenditure measures work again being able to get into the market.
Some are hoping for rates cuts soon, but that I doubt, though it is possible APRA will reduce the 3% buffer for some minor relief.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we celebrate the Year of the Rabbit.
Are we revisit the cooling off period question in the context of property purchase.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
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We look at the question of distressed listings and sales, which appear to be quite low at the moment. Some therefore argue that things in the property market are just fine.
However, apart from the question of how distressed sales are defined and identified, the truth is that some households are being given the option to sell as a normal not distressed sale. This is better for the bank, and potentially might be something which given enough equity in the property is worth considering. But it is really important to get the right independent advice first!
Bottom line is low distressed sale counts are not a signal of a buoyant market.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest REINZ figures for December 2022 show further falls in prices and sales volumes, linked directly to the higher interest rates and reduction in borrowing power, across most of New Zealand.
https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery
Expect more falls as the RBNZ drive rates higher as they chase down inflation.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another outing for our Property Insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the latest numbers, trends and market movements.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another look at recent price cuts on the property portals. this time in and around the Gold Coast, thanks to Cookie for the research. No surprise that some of the fastest falls across the country are in southeast QLD.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest incentives for NSW first time buyers, the latest from China as people there vote with their feet on property, the numbers, and of course a special chat about underquoting.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Interesting article in The Conversation looking at how wealth inequality has been amplified due to home price distortions and how this flows into some households at the expense of others.
They suggest tax reforms and planning reforms, but are silent on the main driver of this inequality – monetary policy, credit availability and lending policy. This is not the first-time analysts have chosen to ignore the elephant in the room.
The truth is the financialisation of property, as a policy, coupled with ultra-low interest rates and ultra-loose policy caused the problem. Question is, will this be addressed? We think not, given the power of the financial and construction sectors and their influence on governments of all persuasions.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In the first Antispruik show of 2023, we look at recent price falls across the portals covering areas of Western Australia. This is data from the property portals extracted by Cookie, and whilst they might not be statistically accurate, the more than 100 examples tell a compelling story.
Thanks as always to Cookie for his efforts.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Just before Christmas APRA advised the imposition of a 1% Counter Cyclical Capital Buffer on Australian Banks. Interesting timing, seeing as the Bank For International Settlements had set 2023 as the required date. Up to this point APRA has argued a 1% buffer was not needed in Australia – so what changed?
So, we wonder, are they being forced to comply. and what does this mean for our “strong” banks as interest rates rise and lending slows?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/