Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Another deep dive into the data with Journalist Tarric Brooker as we explore the recent events in China, the housing story (and political announceables), the mortgage cliff (or not) and lots more.
Slides are available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-18th-august-2023
Tarric’s article which we mention is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-fixed-rate-mortgage-cliff
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Home prices are driven by a combination of demand where population growth thanks to high migration puts upward pressure on prices; supply where more property for sale puts downward pressure on prices, and availability of credit as the catalyst for transactions to occur.
Much of the debate is currently centered on supply side issues. As I discussed last week, Outgoing Governor Phil Lowe, urged governments at all levels to work together to address the problem of housing affordability. Notably, he dismissed rent controls as a short-term fix that would provide immediate relief by reducing the incentive to fix the key problem: supply.
“There aren’t short-term solutions here. The solution has to be putting in place a structure that makes the supply side of the housing market more flexible and that means zoning and planning deregulation and it means state and local governments being part of the solution.”
This means that first time buyer incentives, or rental support just make the problem, worst – something which I have highlighted over the years (and which by the way the Productive Commission also confirmed).
But my fear is that the un-defused credit bomb will be skirted around and as the supply side elephant is paraded through the streets. But it is the credit Elephant in the room which should be addressed, even if it shrinks bank balance sheets and profits. If not, nothing will fundamentally change and prices will remain as out of whack as they currently are.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest dissection of the property market – at the start of an important week in the future of housing with our property insider Edwin Almeida.
We look at the range of serious issues ahead, with an uptick in potential visitors to Australia, a small rise in listings, and a fall in rental availability as some of the factors crimping property investors bite.
We also look at the proposed rental freeze legislation from the Greens.
In such an important week, we will be live tomorrow with Edwin and taking questions on these critical issues. https://youtube.com/live/KpdkhMrhl_k
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers.
No surprise then that Britain’s property market showed signs of slowing to a crawl after a jump in mortgage costs reduced both buyer demand and the volume of sales. The figures add to evidence that the housing market is weakening after the quickest series of increases in interest rates lifted the cost of mortgages. Lenders including Nationwide and Halifax say property prices are falling, and some expect a peak-to-trough slump of 10% to 12% is “very likely.”
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey for July 2023 says at the national level, new buyer enquiries posted a figure of -45%, like last month’s figure of -46%. As a result, this metric continues to signal a sharp downturn in buyer demand following the latest escalation in mortgage interest rates. When viewed at the level of the English regions and the four nations, all parts of the UK display a firmly negative return for new buyer enquiries over the month.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Show Me The Numbers! A deep dive into some of the fallacies which driven by MSM (and who pays the bills?) as we look at the latest from our property insider.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we deep dive into the latest charts and trends.
You can see the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-4th-august-2023?sd=pf
Japan article here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/kamikaze-bank-of-japan-policy-and
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider as we look at the latest from the market. Are listings really on their way up?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Metricon is the country’s largest residential home builder, and credits itself as ‘”Australia’s most trusted choice”. According to an ABC report, Metricon has terminated dozens of fixed-price contracts and asked customers to sign new contracts for substantially more. The major homebuilder has also stopped paying some agents’ commission fees, without explanation.
Metricon is the only builder to appear on the NSW watchdog’s complaints register this year.
Worth underscoring its important to read the small print in construction contracts, at a time when building failures are rising, thanks to the profitless boom created by poor policy and low interest rates.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest chat with our property insider, Edwin Almeida including a walk round a property being converted to “budget accommodation.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker goes deep into the economic substructure of the economy, where we see people pulling in two directions at the same time – Burnout Economics!
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/burnout-economics-presentation-on
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/resuming-student-loan-payments-to
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/