Category: Property Market

The Home Price Head Fake!

CoreLogic data for May shows an acceleration in home prices, the strongest since November 2021. However, many risks are stacking up and I think its too soon to be talking of a home price recovery – values are still well down from recent peaks. And the distribution of the rises are distorted towards to upper end of the market, where small volumes of sales can mess with the data.

Given higher rates ahead, the mortgage cliff, and a potential recession, this is likely a false dawn at best, at worse a head fake where some will get caught out.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Inflation Says More Rate Rises Are Ahead!

We look at the latest monthly CPI figures which were stronger than anticipated, and Phil Lowes’ outing in front of the Senate (maybe his last?).

It is highly likely that further rate increases are on the cards, despite the record high debt burden, acknowledge by the Governor. And whilst there was a focus on productivity improvement, the truth is, the war on wages growth continues.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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The Housing Construction Mess!

Set the latest falling building approvals from the ABS, against the rising population thanks to net migration, a rise in building company failures, and rising costs, and its a perfect storm. Housing construction is in a mess!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live Q&A 8PM Sydney – Reclaiming The Future!

Join me for a live Q&A show tonight with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.

We will examine the latest in the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking Closures, the ASIC Inquiry, banks and corporates behaving badly and some of the broader geo-political risks in play. You can ask a question live.

https://citizensparty.org.au/

Mortgage Cliff Crashes Into Rising House Prices!

Higher mortgage rates are starting to catch up on a number of fixed rated holders. Indeed over the next few months, higher home prices and the rate cliff will collide! What may happen?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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The Mortgage Prisoners Debt Trap Escape Hatch – Maybe!

Lenders are selectively lower the hurdles to make mortgage loans and refinance existing borrowing. According to an AFR article, some are tweaking the serviceability buffers. So we look at the implications, given rates are expected to continue to rise.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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The Reserve Bank Of New Zealand Inflicts More Interest Rate Pain!

The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 5.25% to 5.50%.

They said:

The combination of weaker demand and improved supply has reduced inflation in New Zealand. Annual consumers price inflation declined from 7.2% in the December 2022 quarter to 6.7% in the March 2023 quarter. Prices for some goods and services that change a lot — such as petrol prices and airfares — have also declined.

Inflation declined by more than expected, but it remains too high. While many measures of inflation expectations have declined in the last 3 months, they remain elevated. Most measures of persistent or ‘core’ inflation have stayed near recent peaks. Inflation is expected to take some time to return to the mid-point of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target range.

Inflationary pressure continues to be supported by a tight labour market, with employment above its maximum sustainable level. The unemployment rate remained very low at 3.4% in the March 2023 quarter. Although most indicators show that labour market pressures have eased since last year, they remain strong.

Overall, high interest rates are still needed to further slow demand. This will help to reduce upward pressure on prices, leading to lower headline inflation.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/