When I landed in Australia in 1995, I was immediately struck by the concept of a “fair-go” being right at the heart of the Australian psyche. But more recently it appeared to me that this was becoming something of a myth, as inequality and poverty started to expand and impinge on people who previously were able to get on, buy and house, and enjoy the Australian dream.
The Productivity Commission just released a research paper titled “Fairly equal? Economic mobility in Australia” and make the point that Inequality is a serious concern when people at the bottom of the income distribution cannot meet their basic needs or where they experience the stress of economic insecurity. And inequality is a serious concern when it limits people’s future opportunities. The countries with the highest inequality are also the countries with the lowest intergenerational mobility, with children from poor families more likely to be poor themselves.
The truth is the fair-go ideal is dissipating, and people are becoming less mobile economically speaking. Those with wealth in the family will enjoy the benefits, but a larger proportion of people are stuck in a poverty rut, and have few ways to escape. Bye-Bye Fair Go Australia.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Continuing my occasional series with George, where we go deep into tin-foil hat territory, we chat about democracy, and power, and how corporations interact with Governments and international non-governmental organisations, like the UN and WEF, and how this impinges on our lives.
Who are politicians working for really?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
If you talk to ordinary Kiwi’s across New Zealand, its pretty clear things are not looking good. We already highlighted the easing of home prices and businesses are closing in many centres, take for example, downtown Wellington, New Zealand’s capital city, where dozens of empty shops speak to an economic gloom that’s pervading the entire country.
Retailers are in the front line as households simply do not have money to spend, given the current 5.5% interest rate, and until now expectations that rates will remain here for the rest of the year. Struggling retailers are the most visible sign of a sag in demand that’s hitting multiple industries, from manufacturing to construction and real estate.
Possibly the latest Reserve Bank released “OCR 5.50% – Inflation Approaching Target Range” gives a slight hint of possibly earlier relief, but barring the pandemic-induced slump in 2020, the economy is heading for its worst year since the Global Financial Crisis 15 years ago.
The RBNZ on Wednesday acknowledged that domestic price pressures still remain strong, but said there are signs “inflation persistence will ease in line with the fall in capacity pressures and business pricing intentions.”
So, it does appear the RBNZ’s next move will be a cut, though there is a wide range of views on the timing — from as soon as August this year to as late as the first quarter of next year. They will be reliant on incoming data, and we know from previous history data can turn negative quite quickly, once we factor in the current higher Oil prices, and shipping costs alongside weaker new migration as more Kiwi’s head offshore.
In the longer term, it could be the higher Kiwi rate will pull them through the inflation battle quicker than in Australia where rates are a lower 4.35%, and where there is still talk of a need to raise rates to pull inflation down. At least in New Zealand, inflation is easing, for now; but the social and economic consequences of the brutal Monetary Policy will be with us for years.
Worth remembering that this bout of inflation was inflicted by too loose monetary policy, QE and high Government spending and debt. As always policy makers case the problem but real people play the price!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This an edit of a live discussion with Sydney based Buyers Agents Veronica Morgan as we explore the tricks and traps of property purchase. Veronica believes that it’s easier to lose money in real estate than most people realise and it’s her mission to guide people to make better property decisions!
Veronica Morgan is the Founder and Principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers. She is also the co-host of the popular series Location Location Location Australia with Bryce Holdaway and Relocation Relocation Australia on Foxtel’s The Lifestyle Channel Australia. You can also tune into Veronica as she co-hosts the Your First Home Buyer Guide podcast & The Elephant in the Room property podcast, which investigates who is really in control when you buy property. She’s also recently co-founded Home Buyer Academy, which provides online support for first home buyers so they don’t get lost buying their first home and is a co-founder of Suburb Help. And if that’s not enough, she’s the author of “Auction Ready: how to buy property at auction even though you’re scared sh!#less”.
Join us for another journey of exploration through the property market, as Edwin Almeida, our property insider, and I look at the latest data and headlines and try to figure what is really going on.
Are there early signs of listings easing lower – and who is, and who is not buying?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, while covering the main points in commodities and crypto along the way.
This past week has been a doozy, with US markets still clawing higher on increased rate cut expectations, as the latest employment data and adjustments posed some important questions alongside a weakening the dollar, while in the UK the incoming Labour Government won with a whopping seat majority despite voters really voting against the Tories rather than for Starmer.
In France, horse trading ahead of Sundays second pole could mean the Right do not get the prize they were expecting, while Oil was firmer across the week on fears of middle east conflicts and in Crypto, Bitcoin has dropped more than 20% from recent highs.
Wall Street stock indexes closed firmer on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and benchmark S&P 500 hitting record highs.
All up, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.17%, to close at 39,375.87. The S&P 500 gained 0.54%, at 5,567.19 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.90%, to 18,352.76. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.95%, the Nasdaq rose 3.5% pct, and the Dow climbed 0.66%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is down 0.95% for the week and the S&P500 equal weight was parallel to its 2022 high, showing the narrowness of the support for the all time highs on the S&P500.
French financial markets have come under selling pressure since President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election last month, with concerns that a far-right win could add to worries over fiscal sustainability. But there is also nervousness about what will happen if there is no clear winner in Sunday’s second round of voting. Fresh polls showed the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies were still in the lead but looked to fall short of getting an outright majority.
The UK national election on Thursday propelled the Labour Party to a sweeping victory, and Labour leader Keir Starmer became the next Prime Minister. In the six-week election campaign,
The latest update indicates that Labour has won 411 seats, and the Conservatives have secured 121 seats. This gives Labour a massive majority in the House of Commons. One seat has not yet declared a winner.
Actually, though this was a vote against the Tories, while the share of the vote Labour got hardly moved, and was in fact lower than in recent elections, votes went to the right in the form of Reform, or to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and other parties – and Labour was unseated in a couple of spots as a result of this, and in the light of their stance on Gaza.
As Sky put it, A thumping majority without a thumping share of the vote’. Chief Pole analyst John Curtice said “Actually, but for the rise of the Labour Party in Scotland… we would be reporting that basically Labours vote has not changed from what it was in 2019”. Roughly one third of the votes and two thirds of seats shows the problem with the first past the post system, with turnout (which is not compulsory) below 60%. Labour is pretty centralist and conservative.
Starmer did not win because Britain was hankering for a social-democratic government. He did not win because his Albanese-style small-target strategy appealed to voters. He won merely because he wasn’t the government. Starmer won because Labour was not the Tories. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government was stale, tired, divided, regicidal and largely directionless, sapped by eight years of post-Brexit chaos.
First show of the new financial year, so we dive into the impact of the financial changes, and consider the impact on the property market, as well as the latest from the Weechatters and changes to planning rules on values,
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
We update our modelling to the end of June 2024, examining the latest in mortgage, rental, investment and financial stress across Australia.
While the upcoming tax cuts and energy support may assist, the truth is about half of households are under sever pressure, and with rates expected to be higher for longer, its time for people to consider tactics to improv their cash flow.
You can subscribe to the DFA data set via Patreon, https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
You can find out more about our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
If you want me to include a specific post code in one of my future shows, put the details in the comments and I will try to include it.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We are back for another Friday chat with independent journalist Tarric Brooker, as we explore the latest data and charts and try to make sense of what is playing out politically and economically at the moment.
Can things only get better?
Tarric’s charts are here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-28th-june-2024
Tarric’s new website and paywall is here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/australias-construction-sector-an
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The ABS released the latest monthly CPI data today, and it reports that Inflation is still sticky in Australia, and accelerated faster than expected for a third straight month in May, sending the currency higher as traders boosted bets that the Reserve Bank will resume raising interest rates at its next meeting. The report comes after RBA Governor Michele Bullock restated last week that the rate-setting board isn’t ruling out a rate hike after leaving the benchmark at a 12-year high of 4.35%.
Wednesday’s figures suggest inflation is running ahead of the RBA’s forecast for underlying inflation to ease to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. That said, the monthly numbers are at best partial, compared with the more complete quarterly data which provides a fuller picture of inflation.
In truth, for many households real inflation is much higher than the statistics suggest, with continued massive lifts in insurance costs for example, but Warren Hogan may end up being right, with further rate hikes a clear threat if the Q2 quarterly inflation print confirms the uptrend.
This is a mess, created by taking rates too low in the first place, saying they would stay low into 2024, then not returning them to normal rates soon enough, meantime luring many into property are extended prices and big loans. The route out of the years of policy failure will be difficult for many, though somehow policy makers and politicians seem to be able to find someone else to blame. How about some real accountability?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
