Category: Social Trends

More Data Pushing Rate Cuts Out, as Labour Markets Hold Up (Again)!

On Thursday Australia’s jobless rate rose to 3.8 per cent in March, which was broadly in line with the market’s expectations, and ahead of crucial March quarter inflation data due next Wednesday. The economy added 27,900 full-time roles and lost 34,500 part-time jobs in the month.

This very slight rise in the unemployment figure to 3.8 per cent last month showed February’s unexpected drop to 3.7 per cent was not an aberration after all. It’s further evidence of the continued strong state of the Australian labour market.

So, forget rate cuts for now, as this can only make it harder for the Reserve Bank to consider any start to rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock’s mantra is that the path of interest rates will depend on the data. And this is one more data point indicating the resilience of the economy. Actually, despite record immigration, the employment-to-population ratio fell marginally in the month but is still at close to the historically high levels of last year.

This continues what I think is a really wonky series on employment, as I have discussed before. As in many economies, thanks to sample issues, and definitional issues they are hard to read. Indeed, Australia’s labor market report is a volatile series and both economists and policymakers tend to look through month-to-month fluctuations. So, Thursday’s data was widely anticipated following holiday season-affected readings since December. The ABS noted that employment flows have now returned “to a more usual pattern” after recent instability. The incoming and outgoing samples this time around were certainly a little less volatile. But I still take the results with a truck load of salt!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Inside The Property Twilight Zone! With Leith van Onselen…

This is an edited version of my latest live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and Co-Founder of Macrobusiness.

We will dive into the latest in property, economics and politics, to try and make sense of what is happening. What’s the future trajectory of the markets? How will Albo’s announcables play in? What will happen to migration? And can we learn from what is happening in New Zealand?

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.

The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.

And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Government Housing Targets An Impossible Dream As Building Approvals Shrink!

The ABS released data on the total number of dwellings approved in February recently. They say that despite growth in private houses in the month, the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 3.0%, following a 2.7% January decrease.
Specifically, approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 24.9 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms, driven by a fall in the number of approved large apartment projects. In contrast, approvals for private houses rose 10.7 per cent in February.

This continues to confirm the massive gap between the Government aspiration of 1.2 million new homes over the next 5 years. On a straight-line basis, this translates to a target of 240,000 each year – which by the way is still way under the number needed to house the surging migrants and fill existing shortfalls.

So why not tackle the root cause issue here, too high migration? Entrepreneur Dick Smith fears today’s young people will have no savings and be forced to live in Chinese-style high-rise apartments unless immigration is urgently slashed, according to an article in the Daily Mail.

The veteran businessman and philanthropist says they need to understand the connection between a surging population and climate change. The entrepreneur, who turned 80 last month, fears homes with a backyard in Australia’s capital cities will no longer exist by 2050.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

It’s Another Fine Mess… With Tarric Brooker!

Our latest Friday Afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we look at the current data, which questions potential rate cuts, and housing trends, as demand stays strong while supply is limited.

Below the water line we examine some of the underlying assumptions behind the numbers, and how politics have changed.

Worse, the structural issues can be traced back to a series of political decisions, which were policy errors – when will they come clean?

Tarric’s charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-april-2024 if you want to follow along.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Tenants Caught In The Python-Like Property Squeeze Have To Pay More!

Domain has released its Rental Report for March, which delivered more bad news for tenants, on top of the data I released recently which showed three quarters of those renting already have cash-flow issues. Younger families and first-generation Australians are being hit really hard, but as I discussed in my live show, other household categories are also being caught in the rental squeeze. And despite the rise in rents, some investors are selling due to poor net returns.

With net overseas migration forecast to remain historically high, albeit lower than last year, Australia’s rental crisis will continue, even if vacancy rates and rental inflation ease a little.

As a result, more Australians will be plunged into rental stress, group housing, or homelessness.

The solution is to cut net overseas migration hard to a level well below the nation’s capacity to build homes and infrastructure.

The other factor no one is talking about is that renters under extreme pressure are being coerced into buying property, even if its poor quality or in the wrong area, just to exit the rental sector and try to get some control. With borrowing power down about 40-50%, these households are leveraging up, as see by the larger loan balances against income. But this could be an issue of jumping from the frying pan into the fire!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Economic Update April 2024

This is my edit of our latest economic update with Nuggets News. We look at the latest across markets, and talk about some of the big picture issues which are driving the agenda.

We touch on the US inflation (before the figures were released), as well a Australian property and some of the current waves of regulation locally.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Kiwis Faced With Higher For Longer Rates Stuck At 5.5%!

The latest decision from the New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee was released on Wednesday, which was to leave the cash rate at 5.5%. Their key messages were little changed since the February MPS, showing little hurry to change current restrictive settings despite overall CPI inflation expected to fall below 3% this calendar year.

Upside short-term risks to the inflation outlook were largely downplayed, with the RBNZ expecting sub 3% inflation later this year. Despite the economic outlook evolving broadly as expected and inflation on a cooling trend, the RBNZ chose to defer any decisions on when to pivot to an easing bias until more clarity emerges.

Higher for longer…. again!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live HD Replay Q&A: A Deep Dive On Post Codes Feeling The Pinch

This is an edited version of a live discussion, as we look at the post code detail from our recent surveys, as the third part in our latest series.

See the basis of our analysis here: So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch? https://youtu.be/xvE-jPsGQUk

See the mapping of our data here: Mapping The Pinch: Where Households Are Hurting The Most… https://youtu.be/Y-xycboQ1j4

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More insights from our property insider, as we look at the issue of supply and migration, plus the impact of the recent flooding rains, and also the latest on listings and prices.

How broken in the market at the moment, and how are agents playing psychological games with prospective purchasers?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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