Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
In our latest Monday Rant we look at the latest from our Wee-Chatters, the latest numbers, and “innovative” property solutions, as rate rise and pressure on households build.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest data from the ABS on new loans and building approvals contain some interesting insights, but the Canstar survey says borrowers do not want more rate hikes (any surprise?), ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The ACCC’s latest Scamwatch report makes concerning reading, especially the growth in investment and online scams.
https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/scams-robbed-australians-of-more-than-2-billion-last-year
Please be careful people, and ignore those “get rich quick” messages across social media and online channels. If it is too good to be true, its a scam.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Neo-Bank Volt has closed its doors and is returning deposits to its customers and selling its mortgage book. We look at why this happened, and whether other banks are at risk in this rising rate environment.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In today’s show, we review the weeks market action, starting in the US – by far the most influential market, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia. There is no place to hide. Wealth is being destroyed. And there is no end in sight. Data is flagging recession, as central banks continue to raise rates and given the astronomical debt burden out there this is a big deal.
Even conservative investment strategies are being hit. “This is a train wreck,” says Alex Dunnin, executive director of research house Rainmaker Group. “When a traditionally conservative strategy is getting the worst returns then all bets are off. It doesn’t matter where you go, almost everyone will be in pain.”
The S&P 500 notched its worst start since 1970, plunging 20.6% between January and June. The Dow had its largest first-half drop since 1962, and the Nasdaq Composite had its largest percentage decline ever. And US Stocks slipped over the five days, with the S&P 500 erasing part of its rally in the previous week. Down more than 2%, the index just endured its 11th drop in 13 weeks.
All three indexes posted losses for the week. Despite this Wall Street rallied to close higher on Friday in light trading, with investors heading into the long holiday weekend and embarking on the second half of year looking for the next market-moving catalyst. All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed. Treasuries surged after an ugly first half as weak economic data added to recession fears.
The US economic data was frankly horrid this week. An influx of data showing softer consumer spending, sagging sentiment and subdued manufacturing suggest a US economy with a more fragile foundation, prompting several forecasters to lower their estimates for growth.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs told clients on Thursday that stocks could keep falling later this year since “equities are pricing only a mild recession” and more companies will likely begin reducing their earnings expectations. In the event of a recession, Goldman’s team sees the S&P 500 dropping to 3,600, or 4.9% below Thursday’s close.
[CONTENT]
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
2:23 US Weak Economic Data
8:22 GDP Forecast: Down
9:00 Bond Yields
11:00 Buying The Dip
13:50 US Markets
16:00 Oil, Gold and Silver
17:00 Euro-zone Inflation Up
19:18 European Markets
20:00 Asian Markets And China Bonds
22:25 Australian Markets
24:40 Crypto Down
25:47 Tough Times Ahead
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest figures from CoreLogic show prices for homes are easing, and in some places falling. We look at the data, in the light of pressures on households, and rising stress as reported in our latest surveys. And we consider the future trajectory, sheeting the shape of price changes and wealth directly at the door of RBA monetary policy
[CONTENT]
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:25 June Price Moves
1:50 Major Cities
2:50 Regionals
3:50 Listings and Sales
5:50 Rentals
7:50 Outlook
12:00 Commentary
13:00 Latest Mortgage Stress
13:50 RBA will influence falls or gains
17:45 Conclusion and close
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
If you string together recent statements from entities like the Bank For International Settlements, IMF, Federal Reserve and other non-elected entities a frightening story emerges as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are deployed to give Central Banks even greater powers, impose cross-border solutions (some would say a global currency) and remove more freedoms from society.
This is being talked about top-down as it were, without proper local consultation and buy-in. The future they portray is frightening.
To make the point I have pulled together material from a number of relatively difficult texts, but see the summary section in the contents section to cut to the chase.
[CONTENT]
0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
1:25 BIS Report – Digital Money
6:25 BIS New Public Policy
8:30 IMF Future Of Money
15:00 Federal Reserve on CBDC
19:23 Literary Review on CBDC and Monetary Policy
24:50 Summary and Conclusion
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The international club of central banks responsible for controlling inflation has backed Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe by warning that wage-price spiral risks are “flashing red” and calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid 1970s-style stagflation.
If central banks failed to tame inflation and wage claims, interest rates would need to rise sharply, risking “large drops in asset prices [that] could trigger a sharp recession and financial stresses”, the Bank for International Settlements said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has conceded the disorderly end of its yield curve control policy in November last year triggered market volatility and dislocation, alongside damage to the bank’s reputation.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
I caught up with Paul Feeney from Otivo who just released survey results highlighting the extent of wealth destruction we have seen since the start of the year, across multiple asset classes. We discussed the implications of this, and specifically what we can do to react. What elements can we control?
The good news that even now, there are things which can help to ensure a better outcome in the future. No need to panic.
Paul talks about how the Otivo advice platform offers a lens to assist in optimization of a wealth building strategy.
You can try the platform for free, and get a discount on signing up. DFA Viewers can use the code OtivoDFA when signing up for a subscription in the payment section of the Otivo sign-up to activate a 20% discount.
Note: DFA does not get any commercial benefit if you do sign up or try the platform.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker – @avidcommentator on Twitter. The slides are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-24th-june-2022
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/