An important conversation with David Llewellyn-Smith, David is Chief Strategist at Nucleus Wealth and the founding publisher and editor for Macrobusiness.
Australia is facing an energy crisis which has been deliberately set-up by a cartel of producers, across gas and coal. As a result we face crippling costs of energy, and a flow through into higher inflation. As a result the RBA will likely lift the cash rate higher forcing households and business to the wall.
But there is a simple solution, one which would slacken inflation, restore normality to the energy market and take pressure off households and businesses. So the question is, will the new Government grasp the opportunity, or will they be too timid (or even corrupt) to do so?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
“Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, our analysis released today has found.
The new numbers vividly illustrate the global challenge posed by decades of delayed climate policy and investment. To meet the 2050 goal of the Paris Agreement, which calls for limits to warming temperatures, nations would now have to cut emissions every year by an amount greater than the combined carbon output of Germany and Saudi Arabia.
The troubling finding comes as the COP26 climate talks continue in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information.
The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s sharp drop, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels”.
Steve Keen, the controversial economist, and I caught up for another discussion on debt, why big debt is a problem, what could be done and more broadly what this says about our leaders and economists in general. And then we turn to the greatest moral challenge of our time!
In three landmark events around the world, the shape of obligations of Governments and Companies in relation to reducing emissions is being reshaped by the courts and hedge funds. The question is: who has a duty of care, to whom?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Bureau of Meteorology’s annual climate statement just released confirms 2019 was the nation’s warmest and driest year on record. It’s the first time since overlapping records began that Australia experienced both its lowest rainfall and highest temperatures in the same year. Via The Conversation.
The national rainfall total was 37mm, or
11.7%, below the 314.5 mm recorded in the previous driest year in 1902.
The national average temperature was nearly 0.2°C above the previous
warmest year in 2013.
Globally, 2019 is likely to be the
second-warmest year, with global temperatures about 0.8 °C above the
1961–1990 average. It has been the warmest year without the influence of
El Niño.
Across the year, Australia experienced
many extreme events including flooding in Queensland and large hail in
New South Wales. However, due to prolonged heat and drought, the year
began and ended with fires burning across the Australian landscape.
The effect of the long dry
Bushfire activity for the 2018–19 season
began in late November 2018, when fires burned along a 600km stretch of
the central Queensland coast. Widespread fires later followed across
Victoria and Tasmania throughout the summer.
Persistent drought and record temperatures
were a major driver of the fire activity, and the context for 2019 lies
in the past three years of drought.
The dry conditions steadily worsened over
2019, resulting in Australia’s driest year on record, with area-average
rainfall of just 277.6mm (the 1961–1990 average is 465.2 mm).
Almost the entire continent experienced rainfall in the lowest 10th percentile over the year.
Record low rainfall affected the central
and southern inland regions of the continent and the north-eastern
Murray–Darling Basin straddling the NSW and Queensland border. Many
weather stations over central parts of Australia received less than 30mm
of rainfall for the year.
Every capital city recorded below average
annual rainfall. For the first time, national rainfall was below average
in every month.
Record heat dominates the nation
2019 was Australia’s warmest year on
record, with the annual mean temperature 1.52°C above the 1961–1990
average, surpassing the previous record of 1.33°C above average in 2013.
January, February, March, April, July,
October, November, and December were all amongst the ten warmest on
record for Australian mean temperature for their respective months, with
January and December exceeding their previous records by 0.98°C and
1.08°C respectively.
Maximum temperatures recorded an even
larger departure from average of +2.09°C for the year. This is the first
time the nation has seen an anomaly of more than 2 °C, and about half a
degree warmer than the previous record in 2013.
The year brought the nation’s six hottest
days on record peaking at 41.9°C
(December 18), the hottest week 40.5 °C (week ending December 24),
hottest month 38.6 °C (December 2019), and hottest season 36.9 °C
(summer 2018–19).
The highest temperature for the year was
49.9 °C at Nullarbor (a new national December record) on December 19 and
the coldest temperature was –12.0°C at Perisher Valley on June 20.
Keith West in southeast South Australia
recorded a maximum 49.2°C on December 20, while Dover in far southern
Tasmania saw 40.1°C on March 2, the furthest south such high
temperatures have been observed in Australia.
Accumulating fire danger over 2019
The combination of prolonged record heat
and drought led to record fire weather over large areas throughout the
year, with destructive bushfires affecting all states, and multiple
states at once in the final week of the year.
Many fires were difficult to contain in
regions where drought has been severe, such as northern NSW and
southeast Queensland, or where below average rainfall has been
persistent, such as southeast Australia.
The Forest Fire Danger Index, a measure of
fire weather severity, accumulated over the month of December was the
highest on record for that month, and the highest for any month when
averaged over the whole of Australia.
Record-high daily index values for
December were recorded at the very end of December around Adelaide and
the Yorke Peninsula in South Australia, East Gippsland in Victoria and
the Monaro in NSW. These regions which experienced significant fire
activity.
Don’t forget the floods
Amidst the dry, 2019 also included significant flooding across Queensland and the eastern Top End.
Heavy rain fell from January into early
February, with damaging floods around Townsville and parts of the
western Peninsula and Gulf Country.
Tropical cyclone Trevor brought further
heavy rainfall in April in the eastern Northern Territory and
Queensland. Floodwaters eventually reached Lake Eyre/Kati Thanda which,
amidst severe local rainfall deficiencies in South Australia,
experienced its most significant filling since 2010–11.
There was a notable absence of rainfall on
Australia’s snow fields during winter and spring which meant less snow
melt. Snow cover was generous, particularly at higher elevations.
What role did climate change play in 2019?
The climate each year reflects random
variations in weather, slowly evolving natural climate drivers such as
El Niño , and long-term trends through the influence of climate change.
A strong and long-lived positive Indian
Ocean Dipole – another natural climate driver – affected Australia from
May until the end of the year, and played a major role in suppressing
rainfall and raising temperatures for much of the year.
Spring brought an unusual breakdown of the
southern polar vortex which allowed westerly winds to affect mainland
Australia. This reduced rainfall, raising temperature and contributing
to the increased fire risk.
Climate change continues to cause long-term changes to Australia’s climate. Conditions in 2019 were consistent with trends of declining rainfall in parts of the south, worsening fire seasons and rising temperatures.
Authors: David Jones, Climate Scientist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Karl Braganza, Climate Scientist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Skie Tobin, Climatologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology
