Last week we ran our latest live event, and discussed a range of potential scenarios relating to the virus. If the virus is localised and of short duration, there was still a path to higher prices, but as its severity and reach grows, prices would turn negative. This is a simple (actually complex) set of relationships between economics, human behavior and property.
Here is a summary of the various scenarios from our modelling. We weighted the greatest probability at 30-45% fall in the months ahead, assuming global disruption, financials market falls and reinfection. All of which is coming true.
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Begs the question, how soon will prices turn south unequivocally?
You can watch our live event here: