Is Housing Lending Growth Topped Out?

The latest ABS data, housing finance for October 2014, for ADI’s, shows that the trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.8%. Investment housing commitments rose 1.8% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.2%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.0%. In stock terms, the percentage of loans for investment purposes increased to 34.2% of all ADI housing loans.

HousingFinanceStockADIOct2014In percentage terms, banks still dominate compared with credit unions and building societies.

HousingFinanceADIPCTypeOct2014However, the number of dwelling committments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.2% in October 2014.In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.3% while the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.8% and the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 0.1%. In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 11.6% in October 2014 from 12.0% in September 2014. In state terms, the proportion of first time buyers fell in every main state, other than a small rise in VIC.

FTBByStateOcr2014Overall lending across the states fell slightly in NSW, QLD and SA, and rose in WA and VIC.

HousingFinancePCCHangeOct2014Are there signs the demand for housing finance is beginning to ease?  The latest DFA survey results suggest this could be the case.

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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