Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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From Australian Broker. An “overwhelming majority” of economists are forecasting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will alter the cash rate tomorrow for the first time since August 2016. Below, two analysts explain the ripple effects likely to spread across the economy as a result. The good news Martin North, principal of Digital Finance … Continue reading “June cash rate: three possible outcomes”
We look at the latest stats from RBA and APRA on credit growth. Home lending is STILL growing at 3.9% per annum – yet we are about to stir up the monster some more – “you cannot be serious!” https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/stmt-liabilities-assets.html https://www.apra.gov.au/publications/monthly-banking-statistics Once again on the last working day we get the latest credit data from … Continue reading “The Credit Monster Still Stalks The Halls!”
The New Zealand Reserve Bank has released its May Financial Stability Report The New Zealand financial system remains resilient to a broad range of economic risks. However, financial system risks remain elevated, and ongoing effort is necessary to bolster system soundness and efficiency. Domestically, debt levels are high in the household and dairy sectors, leaving … Continue reading “RBNZ Says Financial Risks Remain Elevated”
The RBA released their minutes today, and things are looking less rosy, even though their rose-tinted glasses. International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the international economy by observing that global growth had eased in the second half of 2018 and looked to have continued at around this more moderate rate in 2019. Growth … Continue reading “RBA Minutes: Weaker Growth, Watch The Labour Markets!”
The RBA released their minutes today, and they highlight the current tensions between the domestic GDP and labour market data evolve. But more negative news was recited in the minutes, and this suggests rate cuts, not rate rises. International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion by noting that the slower pace of global economic activity … Continue reading “RBA More Dovish?”
Philip Gaetjens, Secretary to the Treasury addressed the Senate Estimates today on the budget. We are being helped by super-high iron ore prices, but downside risk sits in the household sector, and especially, the falls in property and household consumption. Fiscal outlook The Budget forecasts an underlying cash surplus in the 2019-20 financial year of … Continue reading “Dwelling Investment To Detract From Growth – Treasury”
The RBA released their minutes today relating top the March 2019 meeting. They called out the market’s view that policy rates would be lower in 2020 (a turn around), lower retail, and slowing housing momentum, despite strong employment. In considering the stance of monetary policy, members observed that growth in the global economy had been … Continue reading “RBA Minutes March 2019”
Welcome to the Property Imperative weekly to the sixteenth of March 2019 – our digest of the latest finance and property news with a distinctively Australian flavour. Watch the show, or read the transcript. The talk is now of more sustained property price falls, the RBA cutting rates, and risks in the broader economy … Continue reading “Keep On Keeping On – The Property Imperative Weekly To 16 March 2019”
From The Conversation. Australia’s big little economic lie was laid bare on Wednesday. National accounts figures show that the Australian economy grew by just 0.2% in the last quarter of 2018. This disappointing result was below market expectations and official forecasts of 0.6%. It put annual growth for the year at just 2.3%. But the … Continue reading “Australia’s sudden ultra-low economic growth ought not to have come as surprise”
Welcome to the Property Imperative weekly to the second of March 2019 – our digest of the latest finance and property news with a distinctively Australian flavour. We live in a weird world where the financial markets seem disconnected from the real economy, for example locally home prices data continue to fall, and future … Continue reading “The Impossible Equation – The Property Imperative 02 March 2019”