Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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The RBA released their statement on monetary policy May 2015, today. In it there is no signal about future interest rate movements, but growth forecasts were lowered, to 2% in June 2015. Beyond that, the economy is now expected to grow to 3.25% in the year ended December 2016 (previously 4%). They expect unemployment to rise … Continue reading “RBA Statement on Monetary Policy Lowers Growth”
According to Moody’s, recently markets discovered that there was only a limited speculative demand for 10-year European government bonds yielding less than 1%. Unless forced to do so by an investment mandate, it’s highly unlikely that many long-term investors had been loading up on European government debt yielding less than 1%. Despite their latest climb, … Continue reading “Length of Zero Interest Rate Policy Reflects Diminished Fundamentals – Moody’s”
The RBA minutes were released today, confirming that the board is waiting for more data, especially on inflation. They acknowledge slow wage growth and declining savings and a slow pickup in the non-mining sector. They also acknowledged risks in the housing market, especially in Sydney. I have to say, they appear to be in the … Continue reading “RBA Glass Is Half Full”
Glenn Stevens speech, The World Economy and Australia given to The American Australian Association luncheon in New York, included comments on both the world economy, and conditions in Australia. It contained a clear signal the RBA is willing to lower rates further, and the expectation the dollar has further to fall. But it also refers … Continue reading “RBA – Willing To Lower Rates Further, But May Not Be That Effective”
The Property Imperative, Fourth Edition, published April 2015 is available free on request. This report which summarises the key findings for our research into one easy to read publication. We continue to explore some of the factors in play in the Australian residential property market by looking at the activities of different household groups using … Continue reading “Latest Edition Of The Property Imperative Released Today”
The ABS released their trade data for January 2015 today. Households are still being cautious about their spending patterns, driven by slow wage growth, rising living costs and falling confidence. The trend estimate rose 0.2% in January 2015. This follows a rise of 0.2% in December 2014 and a rise of 0.3% in November 2014 … Continue reading “Retail Trade Slightly Up Again – ABS”
The ABS data released today shows the continued fall in mining expenditure, and no counterbalancing movement in other sectors. Total new capital expenditure trend estimate was $37,693 m, down 3.9% YOY. It does not bode well. Business confidence remains low, and given that household debt is still high, we do not expect housing, and households … Continue reading “Capex On The Slide”
The UK Regulator has announced a broader research agenda, recognising the complexities of the current financial environment. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England spoke at the Launch Conference. His remarks summarise the rationale behind the major research themes. They are worth reading, not least because he highlights that the traditional view of macroeconomic … Continue reading “Bank Of England’s Research Agenda”
In the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board minutes, released today, there is significant emphasis on the role of APRA to regulate the housing market. The economic data suggested continued easing in momentum, and the rate reduction was line ball, between cutting straight away or leaving it a month. Nothing about future intentions. … Continue reading “RBA Outsources Macroprudential to APRA”
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced its results for the half year ended 31 December 2014 today. The Group’s statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) for the half year ended 31 December 2014 was $4,535 million, which represents an 8 per cent increase on the prior comparative period. Cash (NPAT) was $4,623 million, an increase … Continue reading “CBA Results Suggests Momentum Slowing?”