Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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According to APRA, interest only loans continue to grow as a proportion of all home loans. Recently Moodys warned about the increased risks which may stem from this type of loan. So the question is, should we be concerned, bearing in mind the recent RBA comments “indicative of speculative demand motivating a rising share of … Continue reading “Interest Only Loans – The UK Experience”
The ABC The Business last night covered the property market, “The RBA’s Property Problem” – including comments from the RBA and APRA. Industry analysts also make the point that the tax incentives for investment property will work again the intention of macroprudential – we discussed negative gearing yesterday.
The most recent ABS data continues to underscore the fact that Owner Occupied First Time Buyers are sitting out of the market. In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 11.8% in August 2014 from 12.2% in July 2014. However, this … Continue reading “First Time Buyers Get The Investment Bug – Big Time”
The ABS released their data series for August covering the entire lending spectrum (the housing details were released previously). The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 0.1% in trend terms, and the seasonally adjusted series fell 2.0%. The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose … Continue reading “August Lending Data Released”
We have updated our household surveys with the results for September. This forward-looking research revealed some significant changes in sentiment amongst households thinking of transacting, and many of these changes can be traced to recent comments made by the RBA in respect of investment housing. Our approach to household segmentation and our surveys is described … Continue reading “RBA Comments On Housing Have Impact – DFA Survey”
In the current discussions about macroprudential, stimulated by the RBA comments last week and likely to be stoked further as the RBA appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, many are claiming that household balance sheets and incomes are supporting the growth in house prices, and so no intervention is needed. The chair of … Continue reading “Household Incomes And Property Segmentation”
In a speech in Melbourne, the RBA governor, Glenn Stevens said macroprudential tools could prove useful in helping to control the exuberant housing market. That said, he was still skeptical about their effectiveness. He made the point that whilst monetary policy can’t solve every problem (i.e. interest rates alone) and there may be a need … Continue reading “Macroprudential Tools could prove useful – RBA”
The latest DFA Survey results indicate that momentum in the property investor segment is set for an upswing, as we move into the spring season. When we last reported on our survey results, there was a dip in intentions, quite strongly linked to budget uncertainly. This has largely evaporate now other than continuing concerns about … Continue reading “Property Investors Get A Second Wind – Latest DFA Survey”
We know that first time buyers are sitting on the sidelines, as shown in our recent surveys. The biggest barrier is price. Many are desperate to enter the market and would jump at any additional incentive. No surprise then to see proposals popping up from time to time to try and assist first time buyers. … Continue reading “Why Enticing First Time Buyers With Super Is A Bad Idea”
And so it starts. The latest musings from Australian’s army of economists are beginning to wake up to the grim reality. Reality is not friendly. And the news will likely get worse ahead. First, Westpac says that the unemployment rate is set to reach 11% by June. The economy is now expected to contract by … Continue reading “Economists: Reality; Reality: Economists”