The latest edition of our weekly finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Contents
0:20 Introduction
1:05 Live Stream 19th Nov
1:30 US
2:00 US China Trade
2:50 US Economy
3:10 CASS Shipping
4:40 Fed Policy
5:20 US Markets
07:57 Hong Kong
8:25 UK
09:35 New Zealand
11:22 Australian Section
11:23 Employment
12:00 Wages
13:20 Sentiment
14:00 Home Prices
17:18 Auctions
17:50 Pay Day Research
19:10 Insolvencies
20:00 RBA on Mortgage Arrears
22:35 Australian Markets
November Live stream: https://youtu.be/dMaixx5Sf34
The latest on the Cash Restrictions Bill – with Treasury hiding a key submission from KPMG, the architect of the ban… I discuss with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party.
Today I would like to address some of the issues that have been
raised in relation to responsible lending and demonstrate two facts.
First, that the concerns are misplaced. Second, the principles
underpinning these provisions remain sound, even in the changed economic
environment since 2010.
At the outset I want to emphasise that our guidance is just and only that,
guidance. It does not have the force of law. The fact that we are
updating our guidelines, does not change the law, which has been in
place since 2010. However, what has been made abundantly clear to us in
the course of our consultations, is that industry would welcome more
assistance in interpreting how to meet responsible lending obligations.
Put simply, this is what we are endeavouring to achieve. We are not, and
never have sought to impede the flow of credit to the real economy.
I want to take this opportunity to reflect upon three broad questions
that keep recurring in the work we are doing to update our guidance:
Why does responsible lending matter?
Why is ASIC updating its guidance, and why now?
What does an update to the guidance mean in practice for lenders and what will it achieve?
And importantly, along the way I will respond to some misconceptions
about responsible lending. There are some myths that need busting to
address exaggerated and inaccurate criticisms about our consultation on
revising this guidance.
Why does responsible lending matter?
Responsible lending is fundamentally about the credit industry’s
commitment to dealing fairly with its customers. Ensuring robust and
balanced standards of responsible lending to consumers has been, and
will continue to be, a key priority for ASIC.
Consumer credit is part of the life blood of our society and economy. A report by Equifax Australia in July 2019 estimated that 4.4million applications for consumer credit were expected to be made in the 6 months to the end of the year[1].
Inappropriate lending can have devastating consequences for
individuals and families, and on a broader scale, can undermine
confidence in financial markets.
Australia introduced a national consumer credit regime in 2009 to
avoid excesses in lending and predatory lending to consumers. In the
preceding period, the impact of the financial crisis had revealed a
number of shortcomings in policies and practices at financial
institutions abroad. Some of these practices were clearly aimed at
taking advantage of vulnerable borrowers.
Although lending standards in Australia were not as lax as other
countries, during the pre-crisis period the share of ‘low doc’ loans
written in Australia had grown strongly in the lead up to the crisis[2].
The responsible lending law reforms were introduced to Parliament to
curb undesirable market practices that many were concerned about at the
time, including[3]:
providing or recommending inappropriate, high cost and potentially unaffordable credit;
upselling of loans to higher amounts than were necessary to fulfil the consumer’s needs;
unscrupulous lenders providing consumers with unaffordable loans
that will default – thus facilitating the recovery of the equity in the
consumer’s home; and
inadequate financial disclosure, poor responses to financial difficulty and unsolicited credit limit increases.
The core principle behind this regime is simple and has not changed
since 2010 – despite what many critics and commentators have been
saying. A licensee must not enter into, or suggest or assist a customer
to enter into, a contract that is unsuitable. None of this is new. To
ensure this outcome the licensee must:
First – gather reliable information that will inform the licensee
about what the consumer wants and their financial situation. This
involves making reasonable inquiries about the consumer’s requirements
and objectives in relation to the credit product, and the consumer’s
financial situation, and taking reasonable steps to verify the
consumer’s financial situation.
And then, second – assess whether the contract will be ‘not unsuitable’ for the consumer.
Why is ASIC updating its guidance on responsible lending and why are we doing it now?
Since the introduction of the responsible lending laws, ASIC has
regularly reviewed industry practices and identified a range of
compliance issues. Some examples of our work include:
In 2015 we reviewed industry’s approach to providing interest-only
home loans. We identified practices that could result in borrowers being
unable to afford their loan repayments down the track, and we suggested
to lenders that they needed more robust processes to improve the
accuracy of their assessments regarding capacity to repay.
This was followed in 2016 by our review of large mortgage broker
businesses. This review resulted in ASIC setting out further actions
which credit licensees could take to reduce the risk of being unable to
demonstrate compliance with their obligations.
Alongside our industry reviews, we’ve undertaken a number of
enforcement actions to improve compliance. Our actions against The Cash
Store, Bank of Queensland, BMW Finance, Channic, Motor Finance Wizard,
ANZ (Esanda), and Thorn Australia send a clear message to industry and
consumers that ASIC will take action to stamp out irresponsible and
predatory lending, and deter breaches of the law.
More recently, the Royal Commission into the financial services
sector found some major shortcomings in the way in which responsible
lending laws were being applied by lenders.
At this point, I should say something briefly about the decision in
the proceedings that ASIC took against Westpac in 2017 – the so-called
‘Wagyu and Shiraz’ case. This preceded the Royal Commission, and
Commissioner Hayne did not directly address ASIC’s case against Westpac.
ASIC was unsuccessful in this matter and while we respect the judgment,
we have lodged an appeal.[4]
Almost every commentator has criticised this decision and suggested
that ASIC’s appeal creates avoidable uncertainty. Our objective in
appealing this decision is, in fact, to clarify the application of the
law. And we believe that doing so is in the best interests of both
consumers and lenders. It is an important part of ASIC’s mandate to
clarify the law where there is uncertainty, and thereby support and
guide industry to understand their obligations.
We decided to appeal because we consider that the decision creates
uncertainty about what a lender is required to do to comply with its
obligation to make an assessment of whether a loan is not unsuitable for
the borrower. And, if the judgment is to be understood as standing for
the proposition that a lender may do what it wants in the assessment
process (as His Honour found), then we consider that to be inconsistent
with the legislative intention of the responsible lending regime. The
Westpac case relates to the period between December 2011 and March 2015,
and although in the years since we have seen some improvements in
responsible lending standards amongst the industry, there is a real risk
that uncertainty in the approach required by lenders to comply with the
law could result in slippage by some lenders.
Put simply, we believe that the judgment left it too unclear what
steps are required of a lender. We are seeking clarity by appealing.
The proper forum to debate this is now the Full Federal Court. Like any
other litigant, we are availing ourselves of access to an appellate
body. We should not be criticised for accessing the Courts to resolve a
dispute, as all regulators do from time to time.
Notwithstanding our appeal in the Westpac case, we consider that ASIC
should still provide updated guidance mindful that the appeal has not
yet been heard. All of the ingredients necessary are there – judicial
decisions, ASIC enforcement action, thematic reviews, the Royal
Commission, changes to technology. The updated RG209 looks to build on
the existing guidance, which we believe is fundamentally sound, and to
bring those developments together in a single, instructive guide and to
clarify and provide more certainty to industry in key areas where we
can.
Some misconceptions about responsible lending
There are a number of myths and exaggerated claims about the supposed
effects of the responsible lending laws that need to be addressed.
These claimed effects are either not supported by the facts or data, or,
if they are real, they are the result of a fundamental misunderstanding
and misapplication of the law.
Let me address a few of the most significant.
The first is the suggestion that small business lending is negatively affected by the responsible lending obligations.
There has been a lot of misinformation published recently in the
media and in the current corporate reporting season about the effect of
the responsible lending requirements on small business lending.
The responsible lending obligations administered by ASIC apply to credit provided to individuals for:
personal, domestic and household purposes (this includes buying/improving a home); and
residential investment purposes (this includes buying/improving/refinancing residential property for investment purposes).
They apply also to loans to strata corporations for these same
purposes. This is the one, very niche, area of application of the
responsible lending obligations to an entity rather than an
individual.
Otherwise, a loan to a company (including small proprietary companies) for any purpose is not subject to the responsible lending obligations.
Where there is a loan to an individual, the purpose of the loan
determines whether the loan is subject to the responsible lending
obligations. The nature of any security for the loan does not affect
this test, nor does the source of income to pay the loan back. In other
words, it is not an asset test but a predominant purpose test.
A loan to an individual predominantly for a business purpose is not
subject to responsible lending obligations. ‘Predominant’ simply means
‘more than half’.
So, if someone borrows $500,000 of which $300,000 is to be used to
establish a small business, and the remainder for making home
improvements, the loan is not subject to the responsible lending
obligations.
Similarly, if a small business operator obtains a loan to purchase a
motor vehicle which is to be used 60% of the time for work purposes but
will also be available for personal use, the loan is not subject to the
responsible lending obligations.
A loan to an individual for business purposes secured over a borrower’s home is not subject to the responsible lending obligations.
Of course, a lender may choose to apply its responsible lending
processes to business loans for its own commercial reasons to manage its
credit risk portfolio or to meet its prudential obligations.
AFCA in its role as the dispute resolution scheme for the credit
industry deals with both small business loans and consumer loans. There
has been some confusion in industry about whether the responsible
lending obligations are going to be applied by AFCA in relation to small
business loans. In evidence at ASIC’s public hearings in August this
year, AFCA undertook to clarify this misunderstanding in its forthcoming
guidance to its members.
There has also been a suggestion that ASIC’s guidance and
consultation has caused increases to credit application processing times
or rejection rates.
Contrary to some anecdotal statements, the evidence and data do not
point to ASIC’s guidance in RG 209 or our consultation to revise this
guidance, as having caused increases in credit application processing
times or rejection rates.
We do accept that, following the commencement of the Royal
Commission, lenders began to review their approach to responsible
lending and to tighten standards. And that these reviews, prompted by
the Royal Commission and not by ASIC’s guidance (which,
remember, has been unchanged since November 2014), have resulted in
them seeking more detailed information from borrowers and necessitated
some systems upgrades and staff training.
To the extent this had any effect on processing times, it was only at
the margins. In coming to that conclusion, we have actively sought
information about processing times.
The Australian Banking Association (ABA) recently disclosed
information to ASIC that shows, on average, approvals for mortgage loans
for ABA members in late 2018 took 4 days longer than they had in early
2018, but that by mid-2019 this had decreased to be just 2 days longer.
During ASIC’s recent public hearings in August, we asked some of the
major banks and other lenders about changes to loan application times
and rejection rates:
one bank confirmed it has not experienced material changes and approved between 80-85% of applications; and
two banks attributed any changes they have experienced to changes in demand for credit and changes in the bank’s own processes.
And, illustrative of the fact that adherence to responsible lending
laws does not have to spell lengthy processing times, Tic:Toc (a smaller
on-line lender) told us that their fastest time from a consumer
starting an application to being fully approved is 58 minutes. And that
includes full digital financial validation of the consumer’s financial
position.
The ABA has not indicated any direct impact by ASIC on ABA members’
processing times. The reasons given for an increase in approval times
instead included:
a new APRA reporting framework (inspection of record keeping);
an APRA review leading to internal changes to processes and procedures;
satisfying new risk limits imposed on certain lending by APRA;
AFCA decisions influencing interpretation of regulatory requirements; and
reinterpretation by the ABA members of responsible lending requirements.
Anecdotally, we have also heard of instances where front-line lending
officers are seeking to escalate loan approval decisions to their
managers, which may also have added to perceived delays.
Finally, there has been a suggestion that responsible lending has had a negative effect on economic growth.
We do not accept this. The evidence and data available to ASIC do not
suggest that the decision to update our guidance has contributed to the
current state of the economy by limiting access to credit.
Indeed, lending trend reports published by the ABA show that banks
are still lending – approval rates remain between 85-90% for home
lending and 90-95% for business lending (the latter of course should not
be captured by our guidance on the responsible lending obligations).
Instead, the main reason for slower credit growth has been a decline
in the demand for credit. Statements made during ASIC’s public hearings,
other information we have collected from industry, and recently
published economic statistics all support this view.
And, in fact, there are signs that this may be turning around.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that (in seasonally
adjusted terms) lending commitments to households rose 3.2% in August
2019, following a 4.3% rise in July. Earlier this week, CBA announced a
3.5% increase in home lending and 2.8% in business lending for the 3
months to October.
This pick-up in recent approvals lends further support to the view
that it is not responsible lending obligations that have been dampening
credit availability. So too do the following sources:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to comment on the
impact on credit of the construction cycle and of reduced demand for new
housing. The RBA found that housing turnover had declined to
historically low levels (below 4%) and has only just begun to rise.
The ABA lending trend report states that a significant shift in
market sentiment within the housing sector – following the election
outcome, RBA cash rate cut, and lowering of APRA’s serviceability floor –
is likely to be a key driver of a boost in investor loan applications.
In addition, the RBA’s recent Financial Stability Review explained
that uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth has
increased in the last 6 months, with a greater chance of weak growth.
The Review refers to regulatory measures introduced in December 2014 and
in early 2017 (being the prudential measures put in place) as a ‘speed
bump’ for investment lending and interest-only lending. The Review also
refers to ‘tighter standards’ implemented by lenders, relating to their
own credit risk appetite and policies – these are adopted by banks to
manage their own credit risk exposure, rather than for the purpose of
complying with responsible lending obligations. And, finally, the Review
points to an increase of credit approvals in recent months which the
RBA expects to flow through to higher lending.
What does an update to the guidance mean and what will it achieve?
Our Regulatory Guides are intended to be useful and informative
documents and there has been a great deal of anticipation about the
upcoming revision. There are a few key points I would like to make about
what an update to our guidance means and will achieve.
First – our regulatory guidance was last updated in November 2014,
and the responsible lending obligations themselves have not materially
changed since 2010. For a topic like responsible lending, where the
application of the law continues to be clarified through court
decisions, and where the industry’s technologies and systems evolve and
change, it is appropriate to conduct periodic reviews and updates of our
guidance.
Second – the consultation process has involved multiple steps. We
allowed three months to receive submissions, in order to get thoughtful
and broad feedback. We exercised our power to conduct public hearings –
for the first time in more than 15 years. This proved to be a very
useful and respectful forum to talk to industry participants about their
views. We have also recently concluded a group of round-table sessions
with stakeholders including ADIs, non-bank lenders, brokers, providers
of small amount credit contracts and consumer leases, and consumer
representative groups. This enabled us to test and distil the
conclusions we were drawing on necessary changes.
Third – it is critical everyone is clear that our guidance does not,
and the revised guidance will not, create new obligations. Simply
because it cannot do that. Our regulatory guides are just that – guidance – about approaches that licensees can adopt to reduce the risk that they fail to comply with the responsible lending laws.
Fourth – The submissions were wide ranging, but many made the point
that they were looking for more guidance not less, albeit while
retaining flexibility to exercise judgments in implementing responsible
lending practices.
We made it very clear in the consultation paper that we wanted to update and clarify our existing guidance and provide additional guidance.
When we release the updated regulatory guide in a few weeks, I urge
licensees to take the guidance on board and to compete with each other
on the quality of products and services to consumers. Not focus on
processes which merely seek to achieve a minimum level of compliance.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I hope that I have given context for what we are doing
and why, and busted some myths about the practical effects of
responsible lending.
We all have a role to play to ensure that both consumers and
investors can continue to have confidence in the efficient and fair
operation of our credit markets. As the leaders and responsible managers
of our credit institutions, it falls to you to implement processes that
ensure consumers are provided with products that are affordable for
them and suit their needs.
We intend for our update to Regulatory Guide 209 to provide greater
clarity to industry. All the same, there is little doubt that we will
continue to be engaged in conversation with industry about responsible
lending.
Australia’s trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3 per cent in October 2019, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. The unemployment rate increased in the Northern Territory and New South Wales, and decreased in Tasmania.
Trend unemployment in October 2019 remained steady at 5.3 per cent, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same time last year.
The increase in the unemployment rate over the past year has coincided with a 0.5 percentage point increase in the participation rate, from 65.6 per cent to 66.1 per cent.
The trend monthly underutilisation rate also remained steady at 13.8 per cent in October 2019, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the past year.
Employment and hours
In October 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 12,300 people. Full-time employment increased by around 5,800 people and part-time employment increased by around 6,500 people.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 268,500 people (2.1 per cent), which continued to be above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent). Full-time employment increased by 1.8 per cent and part-time employment increased by 2.8 per cent over the past year.
The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in October 2019 and by 1.7 per cent over the past year. This was slightly above the 20 year average year-on-year growth of 1.6 per cent.
Underemployment and underutilisation
The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.5 per cent in October 2019, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the past year. The trend monthly underutilisation rate also remained steady at 13.8 per cent in October 2019, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the past year.
States and territories trend unemployment rate
The monthly trend unemployment rate remained steady in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory in October 2019. The unemployment rate increased in the Northern Territory and New South Wales, and decreased in Tasmania.
Over the year, unemployment rates fell in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, and increased in all other states and territory. Seasonally adjusted data
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3 per cent in October 2019, while the underemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5 per cent. The seasonally adjusted participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.0 per cent, and the number of people employed decreased by around 19,000.
The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by around 300,000 people entering and leaving employment each month.
Note that in original terms, the incoming rotation group in October 2019 had a higher employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (63.0% in October 2019, compared to 61.7% in September 2019), and was higher than the sample as a whole (62.4%). The incoming rotation group had a higher full-time employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (42.8% in October 2019, compared to 41.9% in September 2019), and was higher than the sample as a whole (42.5%).
The unemployment rate of the incoming rotation group was lower than the group it replaced (5.3% in October 2019, compared to 5.4% in September 2019) and was higher than the sample as a whole (5.1%). The participation rate of the incoming rotation group was higher than the group it replaced (66.4% in October 2019, compared to 65.2% in September 2019) and higher than the sample as a whole (65.7%).
The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 2.2% through the year to the September quarter 2019. The public sector did better than the private sector.
The original data by state shows TAS and VIC doing better than average, while WA and NT are below average.
In original terms, rises through the year to September quarter 2019 at the industry level ranged from 1.7% for Information, media and telecommunications services to 3.2% for Health care and social assistance.
DFA provided data from our household surveys to inform an important report “The Debt Trap” released by more than 20 agencies helping consumers with their financial pressure. Our research, based on our rolling 52,000 households reveals that more households are using short term loans to try and manage their budgets, but many get trapped into debt. This is important given the rise in mortgage stress across the country.
The report also contains case studies which bring home the risks involved.
Worse, the recommendations from an earlier Government review are apparently in a holding pattern, and as a result more are being sucked in due to Government inaction.
Finally, the rise of apps and online lenders is making is easier for desperate households to get caught up with high cost short term debt.
Here is the official release.
Over 20 consumer advocacy bodies from around the country have
released new data revealing that predatory payday lenders are profiting
from vulnerable Australians and trapping them in debt, as they call for
urgent law reforms.
The Debt Trap: How payday lending is costing Australians
projected that the gross amount of payday loans undertaken in Australia
will reach a staggering 1.7 billion by the end of 2019. It also found
that:
Over 4.7 million individual payday loans were taken on by around
1.77 million households between April 2016 and July 2019, worth
approximately $3.09 billion.
Victoria is the state leading the country with the highest number of new payday loans
Digital platforms are adding fuel to the fire, with payday loans that originate online expected to hit 85.8% by the end of 2019.
The number of women using payday loans has risen from 177,000 in
2016 to 287,000 in 2019, representing a rise to 23.13% of all borrowers.
Close of half are single mothers.
The report was released today by over 20 members of the Stop the
Debt Trap Alliance – a national coalition of consumer advocacy
organisations who see the harm caused by payday loans every day through
their advice and casework.
“The harm caused by payday loans is very real, and this newest data
shows that more Australian households risk falling into a debt spiral,”
says Consumer Action CEO and Alliance spokesperson, Gerard Brody.
“Meanwhile, predatory payday lenders are profiting from vulnerable
Australians to the tune of an estimated $550 million in net profit over
the past three years alone.”
Brody says that the Federal Government has been sitting on
legislative proposals that would make credit safer for over three years,
and that the community could not wait any longer.
“Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg are
acting all tough when it comes to big banks and financial institutions,
following the Financial Services Royal Commission. Why are they letting
payday lenders escape legislative reform, when there is broad consensus
across the community that stronger consumer protections are needed?”
The Alliance is calling on the Federal Government to put people
before profits and pass the recommendations of the Small Amount Credit
Contract (SACC) review into law. This legislation will be critical to
making payday loans and consumer leases fair for all Australians. There
are only 10 sitting days left to get it done.
“The consultation period for this legislation has concluded. Now it’s
time for the Federal Government to do their part to protect Australians
from financial harm and introduce these changes to Parliament as a
matter of urgency.”