Building Industry Needs Urgent Reform

Australia’s apartment sector is reaping the costs of a “poorly oversighted industry with a lack of competence and, in some cases, a lack of integrity”, says the author of a landmark report into Australia’s building industry. From The New Daily And ABC.

Bronwyn Weir has told an ABC Four Corners special investigation into the apartment construction industry that “commercial imperatives have really overtaken public interest” and that the industry was in crisis.

Ms Weir who, with former senior public servant Peter Shergold, co-wrote the landmark Building Confidence report, found widespread noncompliance and dysfunction in Australia’s apartment construction industry.

The Shergold-Weir report, released in February 2018, made 24 recommendations including a crackdown on private certification of buildings and registration of every person involved in the construction process.

The report has come into even sharper focus after some high-profile high-rise failures in Sydney and Melbourne, and hundreds of buildings discovered to have dangerous flammable cladding.

Ms Weir said given her knowledge of industry practice over recent years, she would never buy a newly built apartment.

“If I was going to be investing in an apartment, I’d buy an older one. It’s common sense, isn’t it? It’s just logical,” Ms Weir told Four Corners.

The ABC investigation comes only months after the evacuation of Sydney’s Opal and Mascot towers due to faults, and on the same day as a report by the nation’s leading construction union that found fixing the country’s residential apartment block defects could exceed $6.2 billion.

The Shaky Foundations: the National Construction Crisis report, commissioned by the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMMEU) with analysis done by Equity Economics, found the “costs of failure are piling up” and that Australia’s building industry had reached “crisis point”.

Another study of apartment building defects by Deakin and Griffith universities found 97 per cent of buildings examined in NSW had at least one defect in multiple areas, while the figure in Victoria was 74 per cent, and in 71 per cent in Queensland.

Together, the findings together with recent structural failures and flammable cladding saga paint a picture of an industry in crisis – a crisis that politicians seem unwilling – or unable – to tackle.

One of the authors of that report, Nicole Johnston, told Four Corners that defects were “very common” nationwide.

“We have got a real problem here,” Dr Johnston said.

“It’s systemic, and it’s infecting lots of buildings across the landscape in all parts of the country. It’s very clear, it’s very prominent and we have a serious problem here.”

Ms Weir told Four Corners that noncompliance within the industry had become “particularly bad … in the last 15 to 20 years”, which had left a huge legacy of sub-standard buildings.

“It’s gotten worse over that period. And that means there’s a lot of existing building stock that has defects in it,” Ms Weir told reporters.

Ms Weir advised anyone thinking of investing in apartments should consider something built five or more years ago.

“You would like to think that if there are major issues with that building, they’ll have started to show,” Ms Weir said.

“So I think if people are looking at investing, there are ways to do good due diligence. Buying off the plan is a really tricky proposition at the moment.”

Politicians watered down reforms

A meeting of building ministers in July committed to implementing the reforms made in the Shergold Weir Report, but Ms Weir said those changes could not remedy the existing stock that had been built over several decades.

“The existing building stock is what it is. We have hundreds of thousands of apartments that have been built across the country over the last two, three decades,” she told the program.

“[The new reforms] won’t improve existing building stock, unfortunately. So there’ll be legacy issues for some time and I suspect there’ll be legacy issues that we’re not even fully aware of yet.”

Deakin’s Dr Johnston told the program that previous calls for reform had gone largely unheeded.

“People have been jumping up and down about this for years and years and years,” Dr Johnston said.

“There’s been lots of committees formed, there’s been lots of task forces, there’s been lots of consideration around these, but really nothing has happened.”

In 2017, NSW did try to propose a bill to police dangerous or non-confirming building products, similar to laws in force in Queensland.

Executive officer at the Building Products Industry Council Rodger Hills said the draft bill was shown to industry leaders, who felt it was even better than the Queensland equivalent.

But by the time the bill entered Parliament, it had been “absolutely gutted”.

“We counted up about 80 clauses that had been pulled out of the documentation,” he told the program.

Engineers Australia chief executive Peter McIntyre said there was a “crisis of confidence” in the industry that needed to be fixed urgently.

“There’s concern among organisations like ours, Engineers Australia, so this is a pivotal time to take action and fix it,” Mr McIntyre said.

BBSW Slides Some More (Again)

The fall from peak just a few months back has now risen to 117.4 basis points, compared with 114.9 last week and now 82 basis lower than the previous low last year. So bank funding continues to ease.

This week we will get the RBA and Fed minutes, otherwise it is a lighter week for data, though Central Bankers will be at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming, USA discussing “Challenges for Monetary Policy” – timely or what… and our own Philip Lowe will be in attendance and participating in a panel discussion.

Personally I think the title should have been the failure (or limits) of monetary policy! Central Bankers still think they pull the strings on the global economy, it’s a pity they fail to see the levers are not connected to the real world any more.

Westpac 3Q19 Stressed Assets Rise

Westpac has released their 3Q19 disclosures. Mortgage delinquencies were higher which mirrors other recent bank sector results.

They reported an increase in impaired assets over the quarter, up $0.1 bn to $1.9 bn. Stressed assets to total committed exposures rose 10 basis points to 1.20%, of which 1 basis point was from impairments, 3 basis points from watch-lists etc (mainly in the retail, manufacturing and property segments), and 6 basis points related to 90+ day past due (mainly mortgages).

Total provision balances were up 1.8%.

Australian mortgage 90+ delinquencies were up 8 basis points to 0.9%, with properties in possession rising by 68 to 550 in the quarter, mainly from WA and QLD.

They said that the higher stress in the portfolio combined with softness in the property market has contributed to an increase in time to sell a property. In addition, a greater proportion of P&I loans in the portfolio are lifting delinquencies, and NSW delinquencies rose to 71 basis points, though below the portfolio average.

RAMS loans continue to have a higher rate of delinquency.

In addition consumer unsecured delinquencies rose 4 basis points, though auto finance was lower thanks to increased collection activities, to 1.91%

The CET1 ratio dropped to 10.5%, partly thanks to the 2019 dividend payment. The “internationally comparable” CET1 ratio was 15.9% as at June 2019.

Global Dividends Break a New Record But Australian Payouts Quiet

The deceleration in the world economy has begun to make an impact on dividends, according to the latest Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index. The total paid to shareholders broke a new record of $513.8bn in the second quarter, but the rate of increase was the slowest for more than two years. In headline terms, payouts were 1.1% higher, held back by the strength of the US dollar.

Underlying growth of 4.6% was the slowest in two years but was only slightly below the long-run average. This slowdown was in line with Janus Henderson’s forecast, which had already factored in a lower rate of growth this year.

With slower growth come fewer records. Japan, Canada, France and Indonesia were the only countries to set records in the second quarter. Emerging markets saw the fastest growth, propelled higher by Russia and Colombia, while Japan registered the best performance among the developed regions. The rest of Asia Pacific, and Europe ex UK underperformed the global average, while the US came in a touch weaker than Janus Henderson anticipated. Dividends from financials and energy stocks saw the fastest increases, but technology and consumer basics lagged.

Asia Pacific ex Japan lagged slightly behind the rest of the world in the second quarter, with the total $43.2bn distributed 2.2% higher on an underlying basis.

In a seasonally quiet Australia, dividends only rose 5.7% on an underlying basis, continuing the five-year trend of stagnant dividend growth. The rise was down to just one company, QBE Insurance, whose rebounding profits enabled a big increase in its dividend, which is now almost back to levels last seen two years ago. Westpac held its dividend flat for the eighth consecutive quarter.

For seasonal reasons, Hong Kong dominates Q2. Underlying growth was just 2.5% and a quarter of Hong Kong companies in our index cut their dividends, including China Mobile. This is a larger proportion than in all the other large markets, reflecting a slowing Chinese economy.

Record dividends in Japan, up 6.8% on an underlying basis, reflected rising profitability and expanding payout ratios. Almost three quarters of companies raised their dividends. Japanese dividend growth has been outperforming the rest of the world for four years, reversing a long period of relative stagnation. Japanese dividends have now caught up with Asia Pacific and North America, the two fastest growing regions in the world, with all three having seen payouts rise close to 130% since the end of 2009.

Investors receive seven tenths of their annual European dividend income in Q2. Growth in Europe has lagged behind the rest of the world over the last few years, and the second quarter of 2019 was no exception. Payouts fell 5.3% year-on-year on a headline basis, thanks in large part to a weak euro, and took our index for Europe to 134.0, its lowest level in over a year. In underlying terms, European dividends were just 2.6% higher. A small number of big dividend cuts held back the total, but the proportion of companies raising payouts is also in decline. Spain, the Netherlands, Switzerland and France were ahead of the European average, but Germany and Belgium lagged behind.

US dividends rose at their slowest pace in two years, up 5.3% on an underlying basis to $121.7bn. The pace of dividend growth in the US slowed across a range of sectors with most seeing single-digit increases. More than four fifths of companies raised their payouts, however, keeping the US near the top of the international rankings. The banking sector continued to show strong dividend growth, but auto manufacturers all held their payouts flat, reflecting growing global structural challenges for the sector.

In the UK, underlying growth was 5.3%, similar to the global average, though very large specials boosted the headline total. The largest contribution to underlying growth came from the banking sector. The Q2 figures were in line with Janus Henderson’s expectations, and therefore there is no change in the 2019 forecast for $1.43 trillion in dividends, equivalent to 4.2% growth on a headline basis, and 5.5% in underlying terms

Australia’s apartment construction crisis to cost $6.2 billion in repairs

New research commissioned by the construction union has revealed that Australia’s building and construction crisis will cost $6.2 billion in remediation and associated costs.

The independent research, undertaken by Equity Economics and contained in the report ‘Shaky Foundations: The National Construction Crisis’ being launched today, analysed the additional costs to owners of remediating water leaks, fire safety breaches, structural failure and combustible cladding and associated costs, in apartment buildings constructed within the last ten years.

The research also found that over 3,400 apartment buildings across Australia had defective, non-compliant combustible cladding installed, and would require remediation work to make the buildings safe.

CFMEU Construction and General Division National Secretary Dave Noonan said that the cost of Australia’s building and construction crisis was now clear, and unfortunately often homeowners would likely be the ones to foot the majority of the bill.

“Australia’s building and construction crisis will cost a staggering $6.2 billion to fix apartments they’ve already paid for.

“This includes the cost of remediating water leaks, fire safety breaches, structural failure and combustible cladding, and costs associated with increased insurance premiums, legal fees and alternative accommodation.

“In some cases, the costs of this remediation has been up to $165,000 per dwelling – enough to sink many families.

“Tens of thousands of families, many of whom have purchased their first home, are now stuck with the crippling cost and mental anguish of owning homes that they may not be able to live in, are unsafe and cannot afford to repair.

Mr Noonan said Australia’s building and construction crisis was brought about by a range of factors the union has been raising concerns over for many years.

“This is the result of the construction industry’s obsession with ‘deregulation’ at any cost, and poor oversight by government.

“It’s the result of years of not enforcing building standards and of allowing industry to ‘self-approve’ with little or no oversight.  Often, it has fallen on the union to blow the whistle.

Mr Noonan also said that a national problem required a national solution and that the union was willing to work with government to resolve these important issues for the community.

“This national crisis in construction can only be resolved through close consultation with workers and the Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union will continue to play a constructive role in developing solutions for our industry.

“We’ll be producing detailed policy solutions and will work with the Federal and State governments across Australia over the coming months.  Now is the time to come together – not silence dissent.

Exclusive Interview: One Nation Will Oppose ScoMo’s Cash Ban!

Senator Malcolm Roberts joins John Adams and Martin North on IOTP to discuss the draft cash ban legislation and he outlines One Nation’s policy position.

We extend the conversation into important broader issues including civil liberties, structural reform and media policy. A landmark event on IOTP!

https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=266524

http://www.treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/at_glance_summary_of_how_the_cash_payment_limit_will_work_0.pdf

https://www.adamseconomics.com

Are The Bears Caged For Now? – The Property Imperative Weekly 17th August 2019

The latest edition of our weekly finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Running Order: 1:08 – US Market 6:33 – Germany 9:00 – Negative Rates 12:06 – Euro Markets 12:30 – UK 14:00 – China 14:41 – Argentina 16:50 – Bitcoin V Gold 18:02 – Building Issues In Australia 21:00 – Home Prices 24:24 – Auctions 26:00 – Mortgage Delinquency 28:47 – Economic data 35:00 – Business Confidence 36:35 – HEM. ASIC, Westpac 40:30 – Local Market Summary

August 2019 Live event: https://youtu.be/vIsaAmGkS9o