Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The latest Statement On Monetary Policy to me seem too optimistic, partly because of the accelerated risks internationally, and partly because their rose tinted spectacles appear to have been turned up to 11! Remember the current rate of growth is weakening, and the trade balance is flattered by ultra-high iron ore prices, which are now … Continue reading “RBA Still Up The Creek Without A Paddle”
Latest from the RBA… The Statement On Monetary Policy to come Friday, will be.. well… interesting! At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent. The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. However, the increased uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes is affecting investment and means … Continue reading “RBA Holds This Month”
Chinese household debt has continued to rise rapidly, reaching 85% of disposable income at end-2018, Fitch Ratings says in a report published today. Rising debt servicing costs do not pose near-term risks to financial stability, but will weigh on economic growth in the medium term and this is reflected in our latest GDP forecasts. Chinese … Continue reading “Rising Household Debt May Weigh on Medium-Term Chinese Growth”
While the global economy is a while away from a recession the dominos are beginning to fall and may eventually all topple over according to JPMorgan. From Investor Daily. Global market strategist at JPMorgan Kerry Craig said that his market case was not for a recession but there were elements to look out for. “The dominos … Continue reading “Are The Global Economic Dominos Starting To Fall?”
The minutes out today spelled out the slowing momentum in the economy, and the cuts in rates would help with spare capacity, but would not lift risks emanating from higher debt in the medium term. Cannot see how both can be true, when the focus appears to be on rekindling the housing market! And given … Continue reading “RBA Minutes A Bit Contradictory”
Courtesy of Philip Lowe, speaking in Darwin tonight. Savers do not even warrant a mention… more the shame! As I am sure you are aware, this morning the Board decided to reduce the cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1 per cent. This follows a similar adjustment last month. This easing of monetary … Continue reading “RBA’s Explanation For The Cut”
The RBA has released their statement today. At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 per cent. This follows a similar reduction at the Board’s June meeting. This easing of monetary policy will support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term … Continue reading “RBA Rate Decision – Cut Again”
The ABS released their latest Household Finance and Wealth Statistics to March 2019. Household wealth per capita decreased for a third consecutive quarter to $404,556.4, falling $1,511.9. This follows a record $9,992.7 fall in household wealth per capita in the previous quarter, and reflects the continued holding losses on residential land and dwellings. The falls … Continue reading “Household Wealth Up (and Down)”
RBA Governor Philip Lowe spoke at CEDA today. He signals more rate cuts, their potential limited impact and the need for other strategies to move towards higher levels of employment. Underemployment makes an entrance – finally! We have been talking about this for years. Today, I would like to explain why this is so and … Continue reading “RBA Penny Drops On Underemployment (Just A Decade Late)”
The RBA released their minutes today which clearly signals further rate cuts ahead as they drive toward to goal of 4.5% unemployment – the latest magic figure when wages will start to rise. Savers be dammed, to try and get household spending up. International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion by noting that the data … Continue reading “RBA Minutes – 4.5% Unemployment Target Means More Rate Cuts Ahead [Never Mind Savers!]”