Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The RBA published their statement on monetary policy today. They point to a lower than expected growth and inflation forecast, but higher rates of unemployment. GDP is now projected at 2.25 per cent to June, and a quarter percent lower by the end of the year than their last projection. They are expecting unemployment to … Continue reading “RBA Lowers Growth Forecast”
In a speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England in Dublin, entitled “Fortune favours the bold” there is a good summary of the debt trap which is underlying the current economic environment. The speech describes how the debt trap was set, and how it is wagging the market dog. Setting the … Continue reading “The Debt Trap”
The traditional wisdom is that First Time Buyers are sitting out of the property markets, because prices are high, loans harder to get, and confidence is falling. Overall 11.6% of owner occupied loans are from FTB. We can look at the trend, showing the number of first time buyer loans each month, and the relative … Continue reading “More First Time Buyers Are Jumping Directly Into Investment Property”
Until quite recently, there was something of a consensus that in 2015 the RBA was likely to lift rates, despite their monthly mantra about a period of interest rate stability. Some economists have argued that falling consumer confidence, slowing wage growth, and international uncertainty were all factors which would lead to lower rates, whilst on … Continue reading “Will RBA Change Rates in 2015?”
In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Economic) outlined the current state of global and local economies, and commented on the outlook. Significantly he stressed that the RBA was looking for household expenditure to trickle through to stimulate business investment and thus lead to a lift in the labour market. However, noting the fall … Continue reading “RBA’s Outlook for Australia’s Economy”
Reflecting on the ABS data released today, and already covered here, and putting that into context of our household surveys, we think momentum is changing and the housing sector could stall in coming months. Demand for new finance fell 0.8% in May. Whilst refinancing remains quite buoyant, thanks to low rates, investors appear to be … Continue reading “Housing Sector Likely To Stall”