Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The return of a 3% 10-year Treasury yield is making itself known in the housing industry. Markets have already priced in a loss of housing activity to the highest mortgage yields since 2011, according to Moody’s. They conclude that just as it is overly presumptuous to predict the nearness of a 4% 10-year Treasury yield, … Continue reading “Higher US Mortgage Yields Offset Lowest Jobless Rate Since 2000”
According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy grew by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018, marking the weakest quarterly growth since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2012. The weakness in Quarter 1 2018 was driven by a sharp decline in construction output and a sluggish manufacturing sector, while growth in … Continue reading “UK GDP Weakest Growth Since 2012”
Mark this date – 10th June 2018. This is the date of the Swiss Federal referendum on the Sovereign Money Initiative (or “Vollgeld-Initiative” in German). Swiss voters will be asked who should be allowed to create new Swiss francs: UBS, Credit Suisse and other private commercial banks or the Swiss National Bank which is obliged … Continue reading “An Alternative Financial Narrative”
Has the FED’s increased recent debt monetisation enabled US banks to lend out more money than they otherwise would? This is an important question, given the current round of rate tightening, and the potential impact down stream. So a recent article from the St. Louis On The Economy Blog makes interesting reading. One can think … Continue reading “Debt Monetisation And Bank Lending”
The first round of hearings at the Royal Commission into Financial Services Misconduct closed out after two weeks of frankly amazing evidence. Their live streaming of the hearings was well worth watching. Of the 2,386 submissions received so far 69% related to banking alone! The case study approach looked at issues across residential mortgages, car … Continue reading “The Unknown Unknowns From The Royal Commission”
The Bank For International Settlements has released their latest data series of credit to GDP for more than 40 countries. It is a reasonably accurate benchmark. I have selected some relevant analogues to show that private debt to GDP ratios in Australia remain high, well above USA Canada and UK. Denmark and New Zealand are … Continue reading “Australia Still High Up The Private Sector To GDP Metric”
Listen, You Can Hear the Screws Tightening On Mortgage Lending. Welcome to The Property Imperative Weekly to 17th February 2018. Watch the video, or read the transcript. In this week’s digest of finance and property news we start with Governor Lowe’s statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. He continued the themes, … Continue reading “Turning The Screws On Mortgage Lending – The Property Imperative Weekly 17th Feb 2018”
As part of the discussion paper, released today APRA, says that addressing the systemic concentration of ADI portfolios in residential mortgages is an important element of the proposals. They have FINALLY woken up to the risks in the system, just years too late! We have significant numbers of loans in the system currently that would … Continue reading “APRA Homes In On Mortgage Risk”
We get a steady flow of questions from those who read our research, or follow our posts, but one question, more than any other we get asked is – Should I Buy Property Now? Many cite the real estate industry claims that now is a great time to buy – but is it really? Today … Continue reading “To Buy, Or Not To Buy, That IS indeed the Question”
Martin North, Digital Finance Analytic’s founding Principal and banking sector analyst, willingly engages with the media offering informed, objective and independent views on banking, financial services and broader economic policy issues. He has a special interest in the dynamics of the housing sector. Requests by Media for interviews can be made here or call 0412 … Continue reading “Media”