Open Banking – Do Not “Bombard” Clients

From InvestorDaily.

The open banking regime could lead to more competition within financial services provided it doesn’t flood Australians with countless options, according to King & Wood Mallesons.

A panel of industry representatives at the ASIC Forum 2018 in Sydney this week discussed the characteristics of a strong open banking regime, arguing that the customer’s best interests must be kept in mind.

Panellist and head of the government’s Review into Open Banking, King & Wood Mallesons partner Scott Farrell, said the nascent data industry should be working towards creating greater convenience for customers.

“I hope the creative and innovative data industry can provide something that helps customers, rather than bombard them just with information,” Mr Farrell said.

“That’s a measure for its success. If the best that that industry can do is just bombard people with a thousand choices, then it’s failed Australian customers.”

He pointed out that competition alone was not significant in and of itself, but rather a means to an end.

“[Competition] doesn’t actually mean anything for a customer. It’s the choice and convenience that means something for a customer.

“That might come from competition, but you can’t feed your family with competition,” Mr Farrell said.

Co-panellist and ‘neobank’ Xinja co-founder and customer innovation director Van Le said the open banking regime should provide data in order to help customers make informed decisions.

However, the data or information should not be “so much that consumers get confused” such that “the whole benefit of open banking is lost and becom[es] a morass of indecision”.

“The real challenge for us, I think as an entire industry, is: how do we facilitate those choices with enough information, in the right context, giving customers control, so that in the end of the day, decisions that people make are decisions that people can be satisfied with?” Ms Le said.

Consumers need critical thinking to fend off banks’ bad behaviour

From The Conversation.

The irresponsible (if not predatory) lending and the selling of “junk” financial products highlighted by the Financial Services Royal Commission should raise concerns for regulators, educators and parents interested in financial literacy.

Research shows a strong correlation between financial literacy and literacy and numeracy skills. Literacy and numeracy are critical for, among other things, making sense of product disclosure statements and understanding the impact of loan terms and interest rates on the total amount to be repaid.

But teaching financial literacy requires going beyond these skills, by cultivating a healthy scepticism of financial institutions and the capabilities and confidence to make informed financial decisions.

There is a strong relationship between a low socioeconomic background and low financial literacy in both adolescents and adults.

It’s not just disadvantaged and vulnerable groups that struggle with financial decision-making. People who are highly educated in finance also make poor decisions – for instance, by focusing too much on growing their assets and ignoring risks.

But studies show that when regulation is effective and the financial system can be trusted, even consumers with limited financial knowledge and information-processing capabilities have the potential to deal with complex financial decisions.

For example, when considering mortgage protection insurance, applicants stand to benefit from knowing the actual risk of events like serious illness or injury that can affect their ability to meet monthly loan repayments.

Building financial capability

One way to develop better financial literacy is through simulating real-world risks, rewards and decisions in safe and supportive environments. For instance, families can play games like Monopoly and The Game of Life.

Secondary school students also have access to more sophisticated online simulations, such as the ESSI Money Game and the ASX Sharemarket Game.

Hypothetical scenarios like these provide opportunities for role play, where students can practise drawing on evidence and using it to think and reason about situations.

A recent survey of teachers of Year 7-10 commerce students revealed that more could also be done to teach students how to compare and choose between banks and financial products and services, what to do in the case of a financial scam, and how to escalate an unresolved complaint.

But we also need to take a look at the role banks play in financial education. Programs like the Commonwealth Bank’s Dollarmites Club and Westpac’s Solve to Save teach children about money on the banks’ terms.

A key call to action in these programs is often to open a bank account and activate a savings plan. In the Solve to Save program, parents pay a $10 weekly subscription, which is “automatically refunded” to their child’s nominated Westpac account every week they complete three mathematics exercises.

Late last year, in response to criticism by the consumer advocacy group Choice, the Commonwealth Bank stopped kickback payments to schools related to its longstanding Dollarmites scheme.

While the banks may be proud of their investment in these education programs, they serve to position the banks as experts in money matters while cultivating trust and brand loyalty.

What does it really mean to be smart with money?

Misguided trust has exposed vulnerable individuals to the moral hazard of the banks – and underscores the importance of improved financial regulation and education moving forward.

Given that borrowing decisions are complex, multidimensional and often emotional, it’s important to consider any lender’s motives, or “What’s in it for them?” Banks are profit-driven. This means an important question to ask oneself is: “Where can I get information and support that is independent, comprehensive and easy to understand?”

In the current climate, teaching capabilities for a healthy scepticism and personal agency is the way forward.

We also need to change the public perception of what it means to be financially literate. The conventional focus on individual responsibility and wealth accumulation is flawed.

Arguably, this focus has contributed to the need for a Financial Services Royal Commission. Whether you are a bank, a mortgage broker or a consumer, the impact of your decisions on others must be carefully considered.

While education can contribute to preparing all Australians for informed financial participation, the task is challenging.

Authors: Carly Sawatzki, Assistant Professor, University of Canberra; Levon Ellen Blue, Lecturer, Queensland University of Technology

System Alert – Does Not Comply With Responsible Lending!

The Royal Commission looking at Financial Services Misconduct heard today that the Commonwealth Bank’s automated system for approving overdrafts failed and so for four years from 2011 it gave some customers a line of credit they shouldn’t have received.

As a result, the volume of overdrafts rose significantly from 228,000 in 2012 (up 80% from the previous year) to 550,000 in 2014. The bank said its automated system “spat out” wrong approvals and was “doomed to fail” because of bad design.  We discuss this in our latest video blog.

In fact, questions were raised by consumer advocacy groups before the bank released there was an issue. The implementation of serviceability assessments was not made correctly. As a result of changes made to the system, the bank failed its responsible lending obligations.

It was also slow to interact with the regulator on this issue.  Once again, cultural and behavioural issues were in the spotlight.

The object lesson here is that automated credit decision systems can lead you up the garden path.  This is important given the current rush to digital channels and more automation.

ABS Confirms Sydney Home Price Falls

The ABS released their home price data series to December 2017 today.  Sydney prices fell over the past quarter, along with Darwin. Other centres saw a rise, but the rotation is in hand.

The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 1.0% in the December quarter 2017. The index rose 5.0% through the year to the December quarter 2017.

The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Melbourne (+2.6%), Perth (+1.1%), Brisbane (+0.9%), Hobart (+3.9%), Canberra (+1.7%) and Adelaide (+0.6%) and fell in Sydney (-0.1%) and Darwin (-1.5%).

Annually, residential property prices rose in Hobart (+13.1%), Melbourne (+10.2%), Canberra (+5.7%), Sydney (+3.8%), Adelaide (+3.6%) and Brisbane (+2.1%) and fell in Darwin (-6.3%) and Perth (-1.7%).

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,869,006.7m at the end of the December quarter 2017, rising $92,858.9m over the quarter.

The mean price of residential dwellings rose $6,500 to $686,700 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,400 to 10,003,100 in the December quarter 2017.

What Are the Economic Impacts of Climate Change?

Strategically, the economic risks relating to the changing climate are one of the most significant challenges we face. But what are the potential long term impacts likely to be? In this Federal Reserve of St. Louis, on the economy blog,  this important subject is explored.

We think there is a need for similar modelling to be done in Australia, as many of the most populated areas are most likely to be impacted.

How might climate change impact the economy over the long term? Some potential impacts include increased mortality, higher demand for electricity and reduced yields for certain crops.

At a recent Dialogue with the Fed presentation, William Emmons, lead economist with the St. Louis Fed’s Center for Household Financial Stability, highlighted research1 that identified geographic “winners and losers” on a county-by-county level across the United States.

Looking out to the year 2090, the findings showed that the St. Louis region could expect a significant impact on its economic activity, Emmons said.

“And if you zoom in and look at our region, [the researchers’] estimates are that we could lose the economic equivalent of 5 to 10 percent of GDP as a result of these effects,” he said, noting that impacts would be gradual.

ANZ to explore IPO as part of strategic options for UDC

ANZ says  it will explore the possibility of an initial public offering (IPO) of
ordinary shares in UDC Finance as part of a range of strategic options for UDC’s future.

A wholly-owned subsidiary of ANZ Bank New Zealand, UDC is New Zealand’s leading asset finance company funding plant equipment, vehicles and machinery.

ANZ New Zealand CEO David Hisco said: “We have been looking at strategic options for UDC’s future for some time as part of ANZ’s strategy to simplify the bank and improve capital efficiency.

“While UDC is continuing to perform well and there is no immediate requirement to make decisions, after last year’s planned sale to HNA did not proceed it makes sense to keep examining a broad range of options for UDC’s future.

“This will include exploring whether, subject to market conditions, an IPO would be in the interests of UDC’s staff and customers, and ANZ shareholders.

“The range of strategic options we have for UDC, including approaches we have received regarding the business and the option of retaining it, will take a number of months to examine before any decision is made. In the meantime, it will continue to be business as usual for UDC,” Mr Hisco said.

China’s new central bank governor will have to deal with massive debt and an ambitious economic agenda

From The Conversation.

The Chinese government has appointed a new head of its central bank. Yi Gang, currently the deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, will take over the leadership from Zhou Xiaochuan, who had been in the position since 2002.

As China’s central bank oversees the stability of the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest pile of foreign reserves, this is a change the global economy is watching closely.

A US-trained economist, Yi received his doctorate in economics from the University of Illinois in 1986. He was a professor at Peking University in China following various academic positions in the US, before joining China’s central bank in 1997. Yi is known in academia for his expertise on inflation and price instability.

Yi developed his technocratic career exclusively within the headquarters of the central bank, taking up various leading positions in areas of monetary policy, exchange rate policy, and foreign reserve management. He then became the right-hand man of Zhou, who dominated Beijing’s economic policy-making for a record 15 years.

However Yi’s governorship came as a surprise, given the widely circulated rumours of other powerful contenders, such as Liu He, now announced as a vice premier of China, and Guo Shuqing, the chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission.

But the appointment makes sense if the reshuffle of president Xi Jinping’s economic team is taken into account, as like-minded liberals lining up in key positions. Yi will actually work directly under Liu, who also trained in the US, ensuring that the government keeps in close consultation with the central bank while the bank does not stray politically.

Problems the new governor will have to confront

Now that the jockeying for the top position at the central bank is over, the new governor is bound to carry on Zhou’s liberal legacy and to tackle some of the more daunting challenges the Chinese economy faces.

First up is the need to further strengthen the central bank, which has been given extra duties in financial legislation and regulation in the latest round of administrative streamlining announced at the People’s Congress. After all, the authority of the central bank in government circles over the last two decades has largely hinged on the bank playing an indispensable role in providing professional expertise.

Yi will also work to defuse the debt bomb that has been lurking behind a series of alarming statistics of the Chinese economy. In particular, China’s total debt has almost doubled between 2008 and mid-2017, to 256% of GDP as the economy slowed down from double-digit growth to a mere 6%.

A distressed financial system could trigger a systemic economic collapse. To reign in this possibility, Yi will have to work closely with authorities in the State Council, China’s cabinet, to contain the risks to a manageable scale.

The bank will have to walk a fine line here. It must contain the shadow banking sector, which is largely beyond the radar of the authorities. At the same time it has to make sure such tightening does not choke financial innovations embodied by the burgeoning internet finance and fintech.

Equally, if not more important, the financial reforms must be taken to facilitate China’s grand economic transition. In the short to medium term, this entails a further aligning of China’s interest rates to China’s market levels.

They also need to bring its exchange rates in line with international market levels, open its financial markets in a gradual and orderly fashion, and push for the use of the Chinese currency in the global market. This is an ambitious project initiated by Zhou with the goal of seeing the renminbi’s international status on par with the greenback.

A more open and liberal financial system in China is of course good news for the world economy as well because central banks need to work together to address increasingly divergent policy priorities among advanced and emerging economies.

Whether or not Yi becomes the next “Mr RMB” (as Zhou is often dubbed), he needs to be the “Dr Reformer” at this critical stage of both the Chinese and global economy.

Author: Hui Feng, Future Fellow and Senior Research Fellow, Griffith University

Mortgage Expenses In The Spotlight

The Royal Commission into Financial Services Misconduct, yesterday spent time with ANZ, and examined their expenses validation and verification processes, especially when applications were made via the broker channel.

Astonishingly, it appears that the bank may ignore the expense data from the broker as submitted (so the Commission asked why they capture the data at all!). Household Expenditure Measure (HEMs) figured in the discussion, as a test which was used by the bank in the assessment process. It will be interesting to see if the Commission views this approach is compliant with their responsible lending obligations.

It begs the question more broadly, are mortgages held by the banks supported by appropriate expense calculations? Some are saying that up to 40% of loans on book may have issues.

We also note that the “mortgage power” type calculators available on bank web sites to give an indication of a borrowers ability to get a mortgage, on average now gives a mortgage figure some 20% lower than a couple of years back.

So, many borrowers would not now get the mortgage they did then. Think about the implications for existing borrowers seeking to refinance, or to move from interest only loans to principal and interest loans!

There was also more data on lower auction clearance rates. Plus predicted falls in home prices, from Moody’s.

When you overlay the Commission findings, with the sales trends (deep discounts are now a feature of current sales, see above), it seems to me home prices are set for more falls in the months ahead.

We discussed this in our latest video blog.

More broadly, the Commission shows the massive repair job the banks have to do on their reputations and culture. No wonder their share prices are down.  Of more significance are the structural risks to the economy, as households continue to struggle with over-committed budgets thanks to lax lending.  This is unlikely to end well.

The purpose of the Commission was to remove uncertainty from the banking sector, but as it goes about its business, in fact the levels of concern are rising. It has royally back-fired!

But there is a good chance that customer outcomes will be enhanced as the consequences  are digested. This would be an excellent outcome. But not an intended one.

CBA’s Mea Culpa

CBA’s new CEO Matt Comyn has written to staff as the the blow touch is applied by the inquiry.

This week the Royal Commission into Misconduct in Banking, Insurance and Superannuation commenced hearings in Melbourne.

From the outset, we said that we were absolutely determined to be cooperative and open with the Commission. Unfortunately, as we heard on Tuesday, our first submissions did not meet the Commission’s expectations. This was never our intention and we will resubmit our information as soon as possible and ensure we have fully met the requests of the Commission. We will work to make sure this doesn’t happen again.

There will be cases highlighted next week where customers have been treated unfairly by us. In many cases, our actions have had a significant impact on the financial and emotional wellbeing of our customers. This is unacceptable.

Where we have made mistakes we must and will take responsibility for them, we will make things right for our customers, and not repeat the same mistakes. We will exceed our regulatory and compliance obligations, and enhance the financial wellbeing of every single customer we serve.

Together, we will make our bank better, and one we can all continue to be proud of.”

NSW Property Prices To “Correct” ~10% – Moody’s

As reported in the Business Insider, Moody’s Investor Services thinks there will be further declines to come, suggesting that Sydney prices will suffer a “correction” in the year ahead.

“Incomes in NSW have increased faster than the national average and underpin some of the recent gains in home values,” Moody’s says, pointing to the chart below. “However, housing values have risen even faster and are overvalued relative to equilibrium value. Therefore, Moody’s Analytics expects a correction across NSW.”