The ABS release their Retail Turnover series for February 2018.
As normal we look at the trend series which smooths out the bumps.
The trend estimate rose 0.4% in February 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2018 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2017.
In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in February 2018 compared with February 2017. This is faster than wages growth or inflation.
The following industries rose in trend terms in February 2018: Food retailing (0.3%), Household goods retailing (0.6%), Other retailing (0.4%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.4%). Department stores (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in February 2018.
All the states and territories rose in trend terms in February 2018: Victoria (0.6%), New South Wales (0.3%), Queensland (0.3%), South Australia (0.3%), Western Australia (0.1%), Tasmania (0.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.1%), and the Northern Territory (0.2%).
The trends by state over time highlight the relative strength of Victoria, compared with the national average and several other states who are performing much less well, especially those in the mining heavy states.
Given the state of the housing market, we wonder if the slight improvement is sustainable, we will see. We do know that households are raiding their savings to support their spending habits. This can only continue until savings are depleted as the savings ratio falls further.
