Today we look at the February numbers from Core Logic and the ABS new lending data, which refinancing apart remain weak. In fact we are not convinced conditions are likely to lead to sustainable price rises.
Tag: ABS
More Ups And Downs For The CPI!
The rather shaky monthly indicators are in from the ABS, and headline inflation is down a tad, though only in some categories, so we should not get too excited. The quarterly GDP number to December was also in, and lower than expected – as ther savings ratios fell, and household discretionary spending wilted, though travel, and student arrivals helped to support GDP.
Again, not too much here to suggest other than more weakness ahead as rates rise.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Weekly Ordinary Earnings Rose – But Fell In Real Terms!
The latest from the ABS shows again real weekly earnings rose, but failed to keep up with inflation – though the gender gap closed a little. Best place to earn more in the ACT or WA, in the public sector, or mining.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Great Employment Numberwang Continues In January!
Lots of mistaken observations about the latest ABS Employment figures. So we look at the statistical anomalies which explain the differences, and look at the different methods used compared with the Roy Morgan series.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Would You Credit It? – New Loan Commitments Fall Again!
The ABS reported a further fall in new credit commitments in December 2022, across most categories. Even refinancing was down a little, though still elevated as people seek cheaper loan options.
First time buyers are continuing on the sidelines, with volumes falling here too.
But borrowing for holidays rose significantly.
Average loan sizes rose however, with Western Australia leading the way!
More signs of further home price falls ahead?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Thief In Your Pocket Just Got More Greedy!
The latest ABS release looked at the rising living costs across different segments, and they reported what we all know, real living costs are rising faster than the CPI numberwang.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Credit Growth And Retail Both Slow In December…
The latest credit data from the RBA and APRA, and retail from the ABS provides indicators of easing trends across the economy..
We look at the latest figures.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The CPI Rockets To 7.8% – But Is This The Peak?
Stronger than expected data from the ABS today increases the likelihood of a cash rate hike from the RBA next month. The moving parts were all over the shop, warped by the addition and removal of various Government support programmes and holiday travel and spend.
No discretionary remains very high, and more costs will flow from higher wages. This may not be over as soon as many expect.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another Great Numberwang As “Employment Weakens” ….
The ABS released the latest employment figures today. Media coverage amped up the “weakness” in the numbers – but most is due to external factors such as sample changes, seasonality and high rates of illness. This was a classic case of numberwang again. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Lending Worm Is Turning Now! [Podcast]
The ABS finally released their November 2022 New Lending stats today. Overall new loan commitments fell 3.7% in the month, and apart from refinancing, which hit a record, all other loan categories dropped to levels which in some cases were below pre-COVID levels.
First time buyers were hit hard.
More signals of a falling property market ahead.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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