Mirage Versus Reality – The DFA Daily 15th January 2021

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

We look at the latest new lending stats in Australia and also the events in the USA as Jerome Powell jaw-bones the markets and a new rescue plan is mooted.

CONTENTS

0:00 Start
0:34 Introduction
1:06 New Lending For November
5:21 HIA On The Numbers
9:00 USA Economy
9:45 Biden’s Rescue Package
15:35 Jobless Claims Surged
21:40 Jerome Powell’s Jaw-boning
26:33 Conclusion
29:34 Ending

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Apologies for the higher-than-normal background sounds – studio door was open

Home Lending Spin And Reality… [Podcast]

We look at the real new lending data, and compare it with the spin….

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/oct-2020

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Home Lending Spin And Reality... [Podcast]
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Home Lending Spin And Reality…

We look at the real new lending data, and compare it with the spin….

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/oct-2020

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Recession Is Technically Over….

We discuss the latest GDP figures.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/sep-2020

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Reaping The Whirlwind – The DFA Daily 14th May 2020 [Podcast]

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We had a power cut last evening, so this is a few hours later than normal. Thanks Endeavour Energy!!

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Reaping The Whirlwind - The DFA Daily 14th May 2020 [Podcast]
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Australian Businesses Report Widespread Impacts In March


The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the results of the first Business Impacts of COVID-19 survey as part of a series of additional product releases over the coming months to help measure the economic impact of coronavirus.

This release provides information on the prevalence and nature of adverse impacts from COVID-19 experienced by businesses operating in Australia in mid-March 2020.

Approximately half of the Australian businesses surveyed (49%) had experienced an adverse impact as a result of COVID-19 during the mid-March data collection period and 86% of businesses expected to be impacted in future months. The collection period pre-dated the Australian Government’s announcement of Phase 1 Social Distancing Measures.

Adverse impacts were most prevalent in Accommodation & food services with over three quarters of businesses (78%) already reporting impacts and 96% of businesses reporting that they expected impacts in coming months. Businesses in Professional, scientific & technical services (21%), Electricity, gas and water supply (34%) and businesses in Mining (37%) were the least likely to have been adversely impacted by COVID-19 in the collection period.

A reduction in local demand was the most common impact experienced (82%) and was also the most common impact expected in coming months (81%). Of impacted businesses, over a third had experienced staff shortages (36%) and 59% expected to experience staff shortages in coming months.

An Irrelevant Employment Number

Australia’s trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1 per cent in February 2020, from a revised January 2020 figure, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1 per cent for a third consecutive month.”

There was no notable impact on February 2020 Labour Force statistics resulting from the recent bushfires or COVID-19. The February reference period was in the first half of the month and pre-dates the notable increases in confirmed cases in Australia of COVID-19.

Employment and hours

In February 2020, trend monthly employment increased by around 21,000 people. Full-time employment increased by around 13,000 and part-time employment increased by around 8,000 people.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 241,000 people (1.9 per cent), below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

Full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) was below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (1.6 per cent) and part-time employment growth (2.7 per cent) was also below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (3.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked decreased by less than 0.1 per cent in February 2020 and increased by 0.8 per cent over the past year. This was lower than the 20 year average annual growth of 1.6 per cent.

“We have seen a decrease in the trend hours worked in recent months, even though employment has continued to grow. This largely reflects a fall in the total hours worked by men”, added Mr Hockman.

Underemployment and underutilisation

The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.6 per cent in February 2020, and increased by 0.3 percentage points over the past year.

The trend monthly underutilisation rate also remained steady at 13.7 per cent in February 2020, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the past year.

States and territories trend unemployment rate

The monthly trend unemployment rate increased in Victoria and decreased in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania in February 2020. The unemployment rate remained steady in all other states and territories.

Over the year, unemployment rates fell in Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Unemployment rates increased in New South Wales, Victoria, and the Northern Territory.

Seasonally adjusted data


The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1 per cent in February 2020, while the underemployment rate remained steady at 8.6 per cent. The seasonally adjusted participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.0 per cent, and the number of people employed increased by around 27,000.

In original terms, the incoming rotation group in February 2020 had a higher employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (62.7% in February 2020, compared to 61.8% in January 2020), however it was lower than the sample as a whole (62.8%). The incoming rotation group had a higher full-time employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (43.6% in February 2020, compared to 43.4% in January 2020), and was higher than the sample as a whole (43.2%).

The incoming rotation group had a higher unemployment rate than the group it replaced (5.9% in February 2020, compared to 5.3% in January 2020), and was higher than the sample as a whole (5.5%). The incoming rotation group had a higher participation rate than the group it replaced (66.6% in February 2020, compared to 65.2% in January 2020), and was higher than the sample as a whole (66.5%).