Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
We look at the real new lending data, and compare it with the spin….
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/oct-2020
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the real new lending data, and compare it with the spin….
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/oct-2020
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We discuss the latest GDP figures.
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We get behind the latest data and FTB “bribes”. Buyer beware!
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We had a power cut last evening, so this is a few hours later than normal. Thanks Endeavour Energy!!
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. We had a power cut last evening, so this is a few hours later than normal. Thanks Endeavour Energy!!
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the results of the first Business Impacts of COVID-19 survey as part of a series of additional product releases over the coming months to help measure the economic impact of coronavirus.
This release provides information on the prevalence and nature of adverse impacts from COVID-19 experienced by businesses operating in Australia in mid-March 2020.
Approximately half of the Australian businesses surveyed (49%) had experienced an adverse impact as a result of COVID-19 during the mid-March data collection period and 86% of businesses expected to be impacted in future months. The collection period pre-dated the Australian Government’s announcement of Phase 1 Social Distancing Measures.
Adverse impacts were most prevalent in Accommodation & food services with over three quarters of businesses (78%) already reporting impacts and 96% of businesses reporting that they expected impacts in coming months. Businesses in Professional, scientific & technical services (21%), Electricity, gas and water supply (34%) and businesses in Mining (37%) were the least likely to have been adversely impacted by COVID-19 in the collection period.
A reduction in local demand was the most common impact experienced (82%) and was also the most common impact expected in coming months (81%). Of impacted businesses, over a third had experienced staff shortages (36%) and 59% expected to experience staff shortages in coming months.
Australia’s trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1 per cent in February 2020, from a revised January 2020 figure, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.
ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1 per cent for a third consecutive month.”
There was no notable impact on February 2020 Labour Force statistics resulting from the recent bushfires or COVID-19. The February reference period was in the first half of the month and pre-dates the notable increases in confirmed cases in Australia of COVID-19.
Employment and hours
In February 2020, trend monthly employment increased by around 21,000 people. Full-time employment increased by around 13,000 and part-time employment increased by around 8,000 people.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 241,000 people (1.9 per cent), below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).
Full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) was below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (1.6 per cent) and part-time employment growth (2.7 per cent) was also below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (3.0 per cent).
The trend monthly hours worked decreased by less than 0.1 per cent in February 2020 and increased by 0.8 per cent over the past year. This was lower than the 20 year average annual growth of 1.6 per cent.
“We have seen a decrease in the trend hours worked in recent months, even though employment has continued to grow. This largely reflects a fall in the total hours worked by men”, added Mr Hockman.
Underemployment and underutilisation
The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.6 per cent in February 2020, and increased by 0.3 percentage points over the past year.
The trend monthly underutilisation rate also remained steady at 13.7 per cent in February 2020, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the past year.
States and territories trend unemployment rate
The monthly trend unemployment rate increased in Victoria and decreased in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania in February 2020. The unemployment rate remained steady in all other states and territories.
Over the year, unemployment rates fell in Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Unemployment rates increased in New South Wales, Victoria, and the Northern Territory.
Seasonally adjusted data
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1 per cent in February 2020, while the underemployment rate remained steady at 8.6 per cent. The seasonally adjusted participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.0 per cent, and the number of people employed increased by around 27,000.
In original terms, the incoming rotation group in February 2020 had a higher employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (62.7% in February 2020, compared to 61.8% in January 2020), however it was lower than the sample as a whole (62.8%). The incoming rotation group had a higher full-time employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (43.6% in February 2020, compared to 43.4% in January 2020), and was higher than the sample as a whole (43.2%).
The incoming rotation group had a higher unemployment rate than the group it replaced (5.9% in February 2020, compared to 5.3% in January 2020), and was higher than the sample as a whole (5.5%). The incoming rotation group had a higher participation rate than the group it replaced (66.6% in February 2020, compared to 65.2% in January 2020), and was higher than the sample as a whole (66.5%).
The Australian Statistician announced on 16 March the commitment of the ABS to provide the community and governments with access to additional, more up-to-date information on the economic responses of individuals and businesses to the coronavirus, COVID-19.
This preliminary retail turnover data release is the first in a series of additional product releases over the coming months to help measure the economic impact of coronavirus. This release provides the preliminary estimate for Australian retail turnover for the month of February. This estimate will be subject to revision with the final monthly estimate published 3 April, 2020 in Retail Trade, Australia (Cat no 8501.0). Future preliminary retail turnover estimates will be published around two weeks prior to the advertised release date of Retail Trade, Australia (Cat no 8501.0).
Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent, based on preliminary figures, in February 2020, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.
The preliminary figures indicate a rise in food will be slightly offset by falls in industries such as clothing, footwear and personal accessories and other retailing. While some businesses (e.g. those that rely on tourism) reported that coronavirus negatively impacted turnover, a range of other businesses saw limited impacts from coronavirus in February.
Australian retail turnover fell 0.3 per cent in January 2020, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a fall of 0.7 per cent in December 2019.
The trend estimate rose 0.1% in January 2020. This follows a rise of 0.1% in December 2019, and a rise of 0.2% in November 2019.
The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.3% in January 2020. This follows a fall of 0.7% in December 2019, and a rise of 1.0% in November 2019.
In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.3% in January 2020 compared with January 2019.
Compared to January 2019, the trend estimate rose 2.3 per cent.
The following industries rose in trend terms in January 2020: Food retailing (0.2%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.1%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.1%). Household goods retailing (0.0%), and Other retailing (0.0%) were relatively unchanged. Department stores (-0.3%) fell in trend terms in January 2020.
The following states and territories rose in trend terms in January 2020: Queensland (0.3%), Victoria (0.2%), Tasmania (0.7%), and the Northern Territory (0.1%). South Australia (0.0%), and Western Australia (0.0%) were relatively unchanged. New South Wales (-0.1%), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in January 2020.
“Bushfires in January negatively impacted a range of retail businesses across a variety of industries” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys. “Retailers reported a range of impacts that reduced customer numbers, including interruptions to trading hours and tourism.”
There were falls for household goods retailing (-1.1 per cent), department stores (-2.2 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.1 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.3 per cent), and other retailing (-0.1 per cent). These falls were partially offset by a rise in food retailing (0.4 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Western Australia (-1.1 per cent), Victoria (-0.2 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-2.3 per cent), New South Wales (-0.1 per cent), Queensland (-0.1 per cent), Tasmania (-0.5 per cent), and the Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent). South Australia (0.1 per cent) rose in seasonally adjusted terms in January 2020.
Online retail turnover contributed 6.3 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in January 2020. In January 2019, online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail.
