Tag: ABS

Will The Inflation Shock Lead To An Interest Rate Hike?

Australia’s CPI inflation came in stronger than expected in the September quarter, with headline inflation rising 1.2% over the quarter versus 1.1% expected and 5.4 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

As noted by Justin Fabo from Macquarie group, “trimmed mean inflation in Q3 was MUCH stronger than the RBA’s August forecast…about 0.4ppts stronger on a year-ended basis”:

And as he notes. “Measures of the BREADTH of quarterly inflation ticked higher and broadly supports the signal from the trimmed mean.

It is also broad based, with“43% of the CPI basket by number rose at an annualised rate of at least 5% in Q3”,

This is going to put more pressure on the RBA to hike rates, potentially on Melbourne Cub day. This is especially because Annual inflation remains elevated, for a range of services such as vets, restaurant meals and hairdressers.

Annual inflation continues to rise for some service categories including rents, dental services and insurance, while inflation for holiday travel has more than halved in the past two quarters. Again, inflation is broad based, you cannot just blame, oil prices for example.

Now, in a speech today RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said “Our focus remains on bringing inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe, while keeping employment growing. It is possible that this can be done with the cash rate at its current level but there are risks that could see inflation return to target more slowly than currently forecast. The Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation. At the same time, the Board is mindful that growth in demand and the rate of inflation have been moderating, and that there are long lags in the transmission of monetary policy. The Board will receive several pieces of information before its next meeting that will be important for this assessment. This includes a full update of the staff’s forecasts”.

We should also note that the CPI weights are typically updated each year in the December quarter to ensure the weights used in the CPI basket reflect current household spending patterns. But the ABS said that with the continued increase in Australians holidaying overseas, a partial update of the CPI weights has been implemented in the September 2023 quarter. This partial update increases the weight for international holiday travel, with the weight for the other components in the basket adjusted to offset the increase in travel weights. International holiday travel and accommodation was down 3.4%. Convenient, when travel costs dropped, whilst others rose. Just saying.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Will The Inflation Shock Lead To An Interest Rate Hike?
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Will The Inflation Shock Lead To An Interest Rate Hike?

Australia’s CPI inflation came in stronger than expected in the September quarter, with headline inflation rising 1.2% over the quarter versus 1.1% expected and 5.4 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

As noted by Justin Fabo from Macquarie group, “trimmed mean inflation in Q3 was MUCH stronger than the RBA’s August forecast…about 0.4ppts stronger on a year-ended basis”:

And as he notes. “Measures of the BREADTH of quarterly inflation ticked higher and broadly supports the signal from the trimmed mean.

It is also broad based, with“43% of the CPI basket by number rose at an annualised rate of at least 5% in Q3”,

This is going to put more pressure on the RBA to hike rates, potentially on Melbourne Cub day. This is especially because Annual inflation remains elevated, for a range of services such as vets, restaurant meals and hairdressers.

Annual inflation continues to rise for some service categories including rents, dental services and insurance, while inflation for holiday travel has more than halved in the past two quarters. Again, inflation is broad based, you cannot just blame, oil prices for example.

Now, in a speech today RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said “Our focus remains on bringing inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe, while keeping employment growing. It is possible that this can be done with the cash rate at its current level but there are risks that could see inflation return to target more slowly than currently forecast. The Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation. At the same time, the Board is mindful that growth in demand and the rate of inflation have been moderating, and that there are long lags in the transmission of monetary policy. The Board will receive several pieces of information before its next meeting that will be important for this assessment. This includes a full update of the staff’s forecasts”.

We should also note that the CPI weights are typically updated each year in the December quarter to ensure the weights used in the CPI basket reflect current household spending patterns. But the ABS said that with the continued increase in Australians holidaying overseas, a partial update of the CPI weights has been implemented in the September 2023 quarter. This partial update increases the weight for international holiday travel, with the weight for the other components in the basket adjusted to offset the increase in travel weights. International holiday travel and accommodation was down 3.4%. Convenient, when travel costs dropped, whilst others rose. Just saying.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!

The latest from the ABS says the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August (seasonally adjusted.

They said “with employment increasing by around 65,000 people and the number of unemployed only dropping slightly, by around 3,000 people, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August.

“The large increase in employment in August came after a small drop in July, around the school holiday period. Looking over the past two months, the average employment growth was around 32,000 people per month, which is similar to the average growth over the past year.

“The employment-to-population ratio rose 0.1 percentage point to 64.5 per cent, around the record high in June. The participation rate also increased, up to a record high of 67.0 per cent in August, which, together with the high employment-to-population ratio, continues to reflect a tight labour market,”

Monthly hours worked fell 0.5 per cent in August 2023 (following the increase of 0.2 per cent in July), while employment rose by 0.5 per cent.
Despite a small fall in August, hours worked were 3.7 per cent higher than August 2022, continuing to reflect faster growth than the 3.0 per cent annual increase in employment.

“The strength in hours worked over the past year, relative to employment growth, shows the demand for labour is continuing to be met by people working more hours, to some extent,” The ABS said.

But there are a few questions to consider about this data, compared to other information out there. The numberwangers are at it again!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!
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The Employment Numberwangers Are At It Again!

The latest from the ABS says the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August (seasonally adjusted.

They said “with employment increasing by around 65,000 people and the number of unemployed only dropping slightly, by around 3,000 people, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 per cent in August.

“The large increase in employment in August came after a small drop in July, around the school holiday period. Looking over the past two months, the average employment growth was around 32,000 people per month, which is similar to the average growth over the past year.

“The employment-to-population ratio rose 0.1 percentage point to 64.5 per cent, around the record high in June. The participation rate also increased, up to a record high of 67.0 per cent in August, which, together with the high employment-to-population ratio, continues to reflect a tight labour market,”

Monthly hours worked fell 0.5 per cent in August 2023 (following the increase of 0.2 per cent in July), while employment rose by 0.5 per cent.
Despite a small fall in August, hours worked were 3.7 per cent higher than August 2022, continuing to reflect faster growth than the 3.0 per cent annual increase in employment.

“The strength in hours worked over the past year, relative to employment growth, shows the demand for labour is continuing to be met by people working more hours, to some extent,” The ABS said.

But there are a few questions to consider about this data, compared to other information out there. The numberwangers are at it again!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Work Till You Drop…

OK, so we know many households are under severe pressure, thanks to falling real incomes, rising inflation and of course interest rate payments. I covered this yesterday in the context of the latest GDP numbers, which on a GDP per capita basis were pretty frightful.

We have seen a record rise in cost-of-living for employee households, driven by soaring mortgage payments and rents, according to the ABS. Employee households’ living expenses increased by 9.6% in the year to June, which is significantly higher than the CPI inflation rate of 6%.

Since they are the ones who are carrying the majority of the mortgage debt, it is obvious that working Australians have taken the brunt of the RBA’s fight on inflation.

But is does beg the question, what levers do households have to try to regain some balance in their finances?

Well, of course there is the obvious one, make sure you have the lower rate on your mortgage and best rates on your savings – as I discussed a couple of days back. Many potentially can save by getting better rates, and we are talking potentially of thousands of dollars!

And make sure you know where you cash flow is going, so you can prioritise effectively, do you really need all those streaming services, and big mobile plans, for example.

The other lever though is just work harder, for more hours. And the recent ABS data showed the hours worked growing fast. But data released today from the ABS showed the number of people working multiple jobs and the percentage of employed people having more than one job reached record highs in the June quarter of 2023.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Work Till You Drop...
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Work Till You Drop…

OK, so we know many households are under severe pressure, thanks to falling real incomes, rising inflation and of course interest rate payments. I covered this yesterday in the context of the latest GDP numbers, which on a GDP per capita basis were pretty frightful.

We have seen a record rise in cost-of-living for employee households, driven by soaring mortgage payments and rents, according to the ABS. Employee households’ living expenses increased by 9.6% in the year to June, which is significantly higher than the CPI inflation rate of 6%.

Since they are the ones who are carrying the majority of the mortgage debt, it is obvious that working Australians have taken the brunt of the RBA’s fight on inflation.

But is does beg the question, what levers do households have to try to regain some balance in their finances?

Well, of course there is the obvious one, make sure you have the lower rate on your mortgage and best rates on your savings – as I discussed a couple of days back. Many potentially can save by getting better rates, and we are talking potentially of thousands of dollars!

And make sure you know where you cash flow is going, so you can prioritise effectively, do you really need all those streaming services, and big mobile plans, for example.

The other lever though is just work harder, for more hours. And the recent ABS data showed the hours worked growing fast. But data released today from the ABS showed the number of people working multiple jobs and the percentage of employed people having more than one job reached record highs in the June quarter of 2023.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Inflation Crawling Lower (For Now), But….

The monthly CPI indicator rose 4.9% in the twelve months to July compared with 5.4% last month. The CPI excluding volatile items was at 5.8% compared with 6.1% last month and the annual trimmed mean was 5.6% compared with 6% last month.

So Annual price rises continue to ease from the peak of 8.4 per cent in December 2022. The most significant contributors to the July annual increase were Housing (+7.3 per cent) and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.6 per cent). Reducing the July increase were price falls for Automotive fuel (-7.6 per cent) and Fruit and vegetables (-5.4 per cent).

But there are a number of data changes which have messed with the data, the numberwangers are at it again!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Inflation Crawling Lower (For Now), But....
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Inflation Crawling Lower (For Now), But….

The monthly CPI indicator rose 4.9% in the twelve months to July compared with 5.4% last month. The CPI excluding volatile items was at 5.8% compared with 6.1% last month and the annual trimmed mean was 5.6% compared with 6% last month.

So Annual price rises continue to ease from the peak of 8.4 per cent in December 2022. The most significant contributors to the July annual increase were Housing (+7.3 per cent) and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.6 per cent). Reducing the July increase were price falls for Automotive fuel (-7.6 per cent) and Fruit and vegetables (-5.4 per cent).

But there are a number of data changes which have messed with the data, the numberwangers are at it again!

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

“Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!”

Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.

First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).

Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.

Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.

But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.

Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!"
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/

“Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!”

Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.

First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).

Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.

Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.

But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.

Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.