Tag: CoreLogic

Auction Clearances Maintain Their Momentum – Again

From CoreLogic.

The combined capital city preliminary clearance rate increased to 74.8 per cent this week, up from a revised final clearance rate of 69.4 per cent last week, while auction volumes increased week-on-week. There were 1,712 properties taken to auction this week, up from 1,627 last week, and higher than this time last year, when 1,329 auctions were held and a clearance rate of 67.9 per cent was recorded.

Based on the preliminary collection, all but one of the capital cities saw the clearance rate increase week-on-week.  Melbourne’s auction market has continued to show some resilience to softer auction conditions, recording the highest preliminary clearance rate at 79.4 per cent, although this is likely to revise lower when the final auction results are released on the following Thursday.  While Melbourne’s clearance rate has remained comfortably above 70 per cent since July last year, final auction results show Sydney’s auction clearance rate has been tracking below 70 per cent over the past six weeks, so it will be interesting to see if the preliminary clearance of 74.9 per cent is again revised below the 70 per cent mark.

Auction volumes continue to trend lower, but clearance rates lift

From CoreLogic.

The number of homes taken to auction across the capital cities has fallen for the 4th week in a row, with just 1,612 auctions held this week, down from 1,766 last week, although higher than this time last year when 1,391 properties went under the hammer.

The combined capital city preliminary clearance rate increased to 72.4 per cent this week, up from the final clearance rate of 68.4 per cent last week, although this will revise as more results are collected. The final clearance rate has nudged slightly higher over the last two weeks after reaching a year to date low of 66.5 per cent; it will be interesting to see if this is still the case on Thursday when the final figures are released.

Adelaide and Brisbane were the only cities to see a slight increase in auction volumes this week, while Melbourne had the highest number of auctions scheduled (753). In terms of preliminary clearance rates, Melbourne was the best performing city with 77.4 per cent of the 667 results recording a successful result, and although this result will revise lower as the final results are collected, it is likely to be stronger than what we have seen in Melbourne over the last month.

Auction Volumes Wane Again

From CoreLogic.

The combined capital city preliminary clearance rate increased to 70.7 per cent this week, up from 67.3 per cent last week, while auction volumes fell week-on-week. There were 1,751 properties taken to auction this week, down from 2,001 last week, although higher than this time last year, when 1,399 auctions were held and a clearance rate of 70.6 per cent was recorded.

Over the past 5 weeks, the final clearance rate across the combined capital cities has been sitting in the mid-high 60 per cent range and it is likely that this will be the case again on Thursday when our final results are published.

All but two of the capital cities saw the clearance rate increase week-on-week while Melbourne recorded the highest preliminary clearance rate at 73.9 per cent.

Housing affordability deteriorated further over the March 2017 quarter

From Core Logic.

With dwelling values rising at a faster pace than household incomes, housing affordability has worsened over the first quarter of 2017.  CoreLogic measures housing affordability across four measures and three of these four measures have seen affordability deteriorate over the quarter.

The four affordability measures that CoreLogic calculate are:

  1. Dwelling price to household income ratio – essentially how many years of gross annual household income are required to purchase a property outright
  2. Years to save a deposit – how many years of gross annual household income are required for a 20% deposit
  3. Serviceability – calculating mortgage repayments on an 80% loan to value ratio (LVR) mortgage utilising the standard variable mortgage rate and a 25 year mortgage, what proportion of gross annual household income is required to service a mortgage
  4. Dwelling rent to household income – the proportion of gross annual household income required to pay the rent

The measures we look at utilise median household incomes which have been modeled by the Australian National University (ANU).

As at March 2017, the national price to income ratio was recorded at 7.3 compared to 7.2 a year earlier, 6.4 five years earlier and 6.1 a decade ago.  Looking at houses and units, the ratios were recorded at 7.4 and 6.7 respectively at March 2017.

It would have taken 1.5 years of gross annual household income for a deposit nationally at the end of the March 2017 quarter.  This is compared to 1.4 years a year earlier, 1.3 years five years ago and 1.2 years a decade ago.  If saving for a house it would take 1.5 years of the median household income for a deposit compared to 1.3 years of income for a unit.

The calculation of the proportion of household income required to service a mortgage is very sensitive to mortgage rates.  At the end of March 2017, the discounted variable mortgage rate for owner occupiers was 4.55% and a mortgage required 38.9% of a household’s income.  A year earlier mortgage rates were 4.85% and the mortgage used 39.6% of the household income.  Five years ago, mortgage rates were 6.7% and a decade ago they were 7.45% and households required 42.2% and 42.8% of their household income respectively to service a mortgage.  Further to this you can see that the proportion of household income required to service a mortgage peaked at 51.0% in June 2008 when mortgage rates were 8.85%.  Houses currently require 39.39% of a household’s income to service a mortgage compared to units requiring 36.0%.

The final affordability measure looks at the alternative to taking out a mortgage, renting, looking at the rent to income ratio.  The rent to income ratio has been more stable compared with measures related to purchasing a home or servicing a mortgage, as it is more limited by growth in household incomes.  In March 2017, the ratio was recorded at 29.6% compared to 30.4% a year earlier, 29.1% five years earlier and 25.8% a decade ago.  At the end of March 2017 the ratio was recorded at 29.6% for houses and units.

The above table highlights each of the four housing affordability measures across the Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA) regions as at March 2017.  Capital cities are generally more expensive across all measures than regional markets despite household incomes generally being higher in capital cities.  Sydney is the least affordable housing market across most measures.  Sydney’s price to income ratio is significantly higher than all other regions analysed.  Furthermore, the serviceability calculation shows that despite mortgage rates being at close to historic low levels, a Sydney property owner is utilising 45% of their household income to service their mortgage.

This data provides a snapshot of how housing affordability is tracking across the country, and it highlights how in Sydney and Melbourne in particular it is deteriorating as dwelling values have risen over recent years. Another important point to note is that lower mortgage rates make servicing debt easier however, it doesn’t make it easier to overcome the deposit hurdle, particularly given fairly sluggish household income growth over recent years.  The data also suggests that servicing a mortgage remains more expensive than paying for rental accommodation although the gap has narrowed as interest rates have fallen.

It is important to look at a range of housing affordability measures and analyse them over time to get a true understanding of the housing affordability challenges.  Over recent years affordability on a price to income and saving for a deposit basis has deteriorated in Sydney and Melbourne however it is relatively unchanged or slightly improved in most other capital cities.  On the other hand, as mortgage rates have fallen servicing a mortgage has required a lower proportion of household income which in turn has allowed some owners to reinvest or increase their spending elsewhere.

Capital City Dwelling Values Rise 0.8% Over June Quarter

From CoreLogic.

The CoreLogic Home Value Index recorded a recovery from the 1.1% fall in May, with a 1.8% rise in capital city dwelling values over the month of June.  According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, “This stronger month-on-month reading can be partially explained by the seasonality in the monthly growth rates.  Adjusting for this effect suggests an easing trend in housing value growth has persisted through the second quarter of 2017.”

The June quarter results showed that capital city dwelling values were 0.8% higher across the combined capitals index; the slowest quarterly rate of growth since December 2015 when the combined capitals index fell by 1.4%.

Index results as at June 30, 2017

Mr Lawless said, “This trend towards lower capital gains across the combined capitals index is mostly attributable to softer conditions across the Sydney housing market, where quarter-on-quarter growth was recorded at 0.8% over the June quarter; down from 5.0% over the March quarter.  In contrast, the quarterly trend in Melbourne has been more resilient, with growth easing from 4.2% over the March quarter to 1.5% over the three months ending June.”

Weaker auction results are further evidence of slowing housing market conditions.

For Sydney, Mr Lawless said the more pronounced slowdown is supported by weaker auction clearance rates which have been tracking in the high 60% range across the city over the last three weeks of June, while in Melbourne, clearance rates have moderated but remained above 70%. He said, “Both markets experienced auction clearance rates consistently in the high 70% to low 80% range over the March quarter.”

Slower housing market conditions also reflected in the annual pace of capital gains.

Across the combined capitals, the annual pace of capital gains has eased from 12.9% three months ago to 9.6% at the end of June 2017.  Sydney’s annual growth rate has slowed to 12.2% over the twelve months ending June 2017, down from a recent high of 18.9% three months ago.  Melbourne’s annual growth rate is now the highest of any capital city, surpassing Sydney’s annual rate of growth despite easing from 15.9% three months ago, to 13.7% over the twelve months ending June 2017.

Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, housing market conditions remain diverse.

Brisbane now has the third highest quarterly pace of capital gains with dwelling values 0.5% higher over the June quarter.  Brisbane’s growth is entirely attributable to a 0.8% rise in house values which offset a 2.4% fall in unit values over the quarter.  Dwelling values slipped lower across the remaining capital cities, except Perth, which posted virtually flat growth conditions (+0.1%) over the June quarter.

Auction volumes fall below 2,000 across the capital cities returning a preliminary clearance rate of 70.3 per cent

From CoreLogic.

The combined capital city preliminary clearance rate increased to 70.3 per cent this week, up from last week, when the final results saw the clearance rate fall to 66.5 per cent, the lowest clearance rate since June 2016. Auction clearance rates have been trending lower since reaching a peak at the end of February 2017 when the combined capitals clearance was recorded at 78.4%.

Considering the easing trend in clearance rates, as well as the fact that preliminary rates generally revise lower as more results flow through, it will be interesting to see how this week’s preliminary result compares with the final clearance rate which will be published on Thursday. Auction volumes were lower this week with 1,984 homes taken to auction across the combined capital cities, down from 2,355 last week however significantly higher than this time last year when auction volumes were quieter due to the Federal Election when only 841 homes were taken to auction. Melbourne had the highest number of auctions this week, with 866 properties going to market, followed closely by Sydney with 832 homes going under the hammer.

Clearance rates continue to trend below 70 per cent across the combined capitals

From CoreLogic.

There have been 1,840 capital city auction results reported to CoreLogic so far this week, resulting in a preliminary auction clearance rate of 69.1 per cent across the combined capital cities. There were a total of 2,323 capital city auctions held this week, down from the 2,444 held last week. This week’s preliminary result indicates that clearance rates are continuing to soften, after last week saw the final clearance rate surpass the previous week as the lowest recorded over the year to date across the combined capitals (66.7 per cent).  With results still being collected, it is likely that the final clearance rate this week will revise even lower again. However, compared to results from one year ago clearance rates are relatively similar with the 67.4 per cent rate of clearance across a slightly lower volume of auctions (2,183).

Auction preliminary clearance rate of 69.6 per cent

From CoreLogic.

There were 2,407 auctions held across the combined capital cities this week, with a preliminary auction clearance rate of 69.6 per cent. Last week, the final clearance rate fell to 67.8 per cent, recording the lowest clearance rate year to date, across 1,279 capital city auctions. This is the 3rd week in a row now where the combined capital city clearance rate has trended below 70 per cent. At the same time last year, auction volumes were lower than this week, with 2,183 properties taken to auction and a clearance rate of 67.4 per cent. Across Sydney, preliminary results show an improvement in the rate of clearance after last week’s final result saw the clearance rate drop below 70 per cent, however as more results are collected it’s likely Sydney’s final clearance rate will again slip below the 70 per cent mark.  Melbourne’s auction results have also moderated, however the clearance rates remain well above 70 per cent, indicating some resilience in selling conditions relative to Sydney.

Is sentiment, particularly housing sentiment, turning negative?

From CoreLogic.

The Westpac and Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment index for June 2017 was released earlier this week.  The Index was recorded at 96.2 points which was the lowest monthly reading for the index since April 2016.

When the Consumer Sentiment Index sits below 100 points it means that consumers are more pessimistic than optimistic.  The Index has now been recorded below 100 points for seven consecutive months which is the longest run of negative sentiment the Index has seen since January 2015.

Before the most recent seven months of negative readings, sentiment had been optimistic for the four months from August to November 2016.  Remember that the Reserve Bank (RBA) cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in August 2016.  Sentiment was also optimistic between May and June 2016 following a 25 basis point cut in official interest rates in May 2016.  Over the previous few years, the only instances in which sentiment would reach optimistic territory coincided with those months in which the RBA cut official interest rates.  This would seem to suggest that consumers are extremely sensitive to interest rate movement, which really isn’t a surprise given that household debt is at a record high meaning households are very sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage rates.  While there has been no movement in the cash rate since August last year, many lenders have been increasing mortgage rates and it seems that this is feeding into a deterioration of consumer sentiment.

Further highlighting the sensitivity of households to movements in interest rates is the time to buy a dwelling index which is a subset of the consumer sentiment index data. In June 2017 the time to buy a dwelling index was recorded at 90.9 points and although that is slightly higher than over the previous month the time to buy a dwelling index is hovering around the lowest levels seen since the financial crisis.  Australians tend to be bullish on housing and its prospects however, this data shows that sentiment towards housing has been consistently negative since February of this year.

Across the states, South Australia is currently the only one in which sentiment towards buying a dwelling is currently trending higher.  In the two states which are home to the hottest housing markets, New South Wales and Victoria, on a rolling three month basis sentiment has consistently been more pessimistic than optimistic since March of this year and June of last year respectively.  Importantly, as the growth phase in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values has continued there has been an ongoing sentiment decline.  Of course just because sentiment around purchasing homes has declined it hasn’t really stopped the growth in values but with more substantial declines recently perhaps this is signalling a realisation that the value growth has come or is coming to an end.

The quarterly release of consumer sentiment data highlights respondent’s selection for the wisest place for savings and over recent quarters there have been some significant declines in respondents choosing real estate.  The June 2017 quarter showed that 13.3% of respondents chose real estate as the wisest place for savings.  Of course, real estate isn’t just residential property but there has been a substantial weakening over recent years as highlighted in the above chart.  Although June’s result was higher than the March 2017 result, it remains well below recent levels.  Despite the moderate quarterly increase, the proportion of respondents choosing real estate as the wisest place for savings is sitting at historically low levels.

The consumer sentiment data is only one set of data suggesting sentiment towards housing may be turning however, it is a timely measure with a good track-record.  Furthermore when it is paired with other data there are now a number of data points indicating weaker housing conditions.  These include but are not limited to:

  • Monthly building approvals having fallen well below recent peak levels
  • The total value of housing finance commitments have eased, particularly for investors
  • Migration data showing that migration away from Sydney has accelerated which is likely a result of deteriorating housing affordability
  • The monthly change in housing credit growth slowing, particularly for investor housing
  • Auction clearance rates having eased from recent highs in both Sydney and Melbourne
  • In Sydney there has also been a noticeable increase in the number of properties advertised for sale relative to a year ago
  • Lenders have been increasing mortgage rates; more so for investors but owner occupier rates have also increased.

As time progress there is mounting evidence that housing markets, particularly Sydney which has been the hottest, have lost momentum.  The consumer sentiment data is also supporting the notion of a cooler housing market and we are growing increasingly confident that the housing market is at or extremely close to its peak if not slightly past the peak already.

Auction Rates Lower This Week

From CoreLogic.

The number of auctions held this week saw a significant decrease, with 1,265 properties taken to market across the combined capital cities, down from 2,578 over the week prior. The decrease in auction activity this week is attributable to the Queen’s Birthday public holiday this Monday, which has affected activity across most states, including Australia’s two largest auction markets. The lower volume is consistent with what is historically seen over this period, with 1,100 auctions reported over the same week last year. Last week saw the final auction clearance rate revise lower to reach 69.8 per cent; an equal second lowest clearance rate for the year so far.  The final clearance rate last week was the lowest over 2017 to date in Sydney and Melbourne.  This week the preliminary auction clearance rate increased slightly to 71.8 per cent, however it is typical to see clearance rates revise lower as final results are collected.