Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is the high quality edited version of our live event from 17th September, trimmed to exclude the pre-show chat.
You can watch the full recording of the live stream including the pre show and live chat here:
We ran our September 2019 live event last night with strong participation from our audience. During the show we discussed our updated scenarios (based on a starting point of August 2018) and answered a range of questions on property and finance.
The edited edition of the show is available to view in replay. This excludes the pre-show and live chat, but does include some behind the scene glimpses.
Our scenarios present a range of alternative outcomes, looking 2-3 years out. “Business As Usual” is based on the RBA’s view, with some tweaks – as we do not believe unemployment will fall to their target of 4.5%! Here there is a path to higher home prices, though with falls later as the current “recovery” reverses.
“Things Can Only Get Better” – is our view of the fading local economy without significant international economic disruption, with unemployment rising, as retail and construction slows, countered by additional Government intervention within their “surplus” limits. Here home prices fall once again.
“Not Yet Doomsday” is our scenario where international economic conditions deteriorate (China, US, Brexit Etc…) as global growth slows. This has a significant impact on the local economy and the spillover effects drive the Australian economy into recession. As liquidity pressures emerge one bank will need assistance.
“Armageddon” is where we get a GFC 2.0 type event, with global liquidity under pressure, and banks needing to be rescued by either bailing in or bailing out. The spillover impacts will be significant (as once again tax payers or households end up picking up the tab. More QE will follow.
Finally “Doomsday” would be the case where Central Banks and Governments allow banks to fail, with all the knock-on consequences.
As well as estimating the impact on unemployment and home prices we also weight the probability of each outcome. This is updated each month as new information arrives via our Core Market Model.
The original live stream recording is also available, with the show commencing at 30 mins in to allow for the live chat replay.
Ask a question via the live chat, and hear about out latest property and finance scenarios.
A quick reminder of our live stream event tomorrow, plus we share some new data on Australian sub-prime mortgages and refinancing.
A quick reminder of our live stream event tomorrow, plus we share some new data on Australian sub-prime mortgages and refinancing.
We ran out live stream event last night. During the session we discussed our revised scenarios, taking account of the complex local and international backdrop.
Using a baseline of July 2018, and looking ahead this is how it plays out. The risks from an international crisis have risen, the RBA itself is now projecting higher unemployment so lower wages growth, and the iron ore price is falling. Business and consumer confidence is being eroded, and the fall-out from the high-rise construction fiasco are only just starting to play out.
There is a path to property values rising, but we think this is relatively short lived.
We ran out live stream event last night. During the session we discussed our revised scenarios, taking account of the complex local and international backdrop.
Using a baseline of July 2018, and looking ahead this is how it plays out. The risks from an international crisis have risen, the RBA itself is now projecting higher unemployment so lower wages growth, and the iron ore price is falling. Business and consumer confidence is being eroded, and the fall-out from the high-rise construction fiasco are only just starting to play out.
There is a path to property values rising, but we think this is relatively short lived.
You can watch the edited edition of our show, complete with some behind the scenes views.
Or watch the original streamed version with the pre-show, and live chat.
The show proper starts at 30:02.
We look at Westpac’s latest data, with a focus on mortgage delinquencies, and also mention our upcoming live stream event tomorrow. You can still send in questions beforehand via the DFA blog, or live on the show tomorrow via the online chat.
This is the audio version of our edited live stream event, where we discuss our property and finance scenarios, and answer questions from viewers.
This is the edited high quality and tidied up version of our live session, where we walked though our scenarios once again and answered viewers questions.
We updated our scenarios once again.
The original live recording, with live chat, which you can watch in replay is here:
