Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
A quick reminder of our upcoming live event at 20:00 Sydney (Tuesday 16th July 2019). You can still send me questions via the blog for inclusion in the show via the contact us or the instant message.
Here is the link to the steam event. Hope to see you there!
Following our successful live stream event earlier in the week, we have recorded an extra segment where we answer those questions we were not able to get to during the show.
Original Live Event here:
Following our successful live stream event earlier in the week, we have recorded an extra segment where we answer those questions we were not able to get to during the show.
Original live show below:
This is the edited version of our live event, in which we discuss the latest data, updated scenarios and answer questions in real time from the live chat.
We ran our regular live Q&A event last night, and had the biggest audience ever (thanks to all those who took part).
During the show we discussed the latest data from the RBA, ABS and Moody’s, and our updated scenarios. In the current “risk-on” environment, and with the RBA’s pivot to lower rates, QE and lifting the money supply incorporated into our modelling, plus the heightened international risk profiles; there are some big changes to our scenarios.
Given the RBA (and the FED) have flipped to more QE, the future could play out a number of ways over the next 2-3 years. Indeed, if the RBA does get unemployment down to 4.5%, it is possible home prices will be higher by then.
We are expecting a small bounce, but then further falls in home prices as the broader economy weakens, and the risks from an international crisis rise further. But remember average rises or falls mask significant variations. We discuss specific examples on the show where prices have already dropped more than 30%.
You can watch the edited version of the show and our rationale for the scenario revision.
Alternatively, the original stream, including the live chat replay is available.
And we also included a view behind the scenes during the session.
A final reminder – still time to send me a question before hand, or live.
This is an audio version of our live event broadcast 21st May 2019
A special show in which we address the question sent in before our live stream event last Tuesday. We had so many live via the chat, but now we answer those sent in before the show.
Original live event here:
We ran the latest live Q&A session last night. One highlight was our updated scenarios. With the trade wars in play, the election results, RBA comments and APRA’s latest, the relative weighting for the scenarios have changed. Cash rates have been reduced, and bank losses adjusted.
Of course we have yet to get soundings from our household surveys as to whether buying intentions are changing; that will take a few weeks. And more unnatural acts might shift the results too.
You can watch the edited version of the event here:
Or the full show, including the live chat here:
So much to discuss, RBA minutes and Lowe’s speech, APRA loosening the credit taps, rising mortgage delinquency, and our updated property and finance scenarios.
Live chat will be enabled.
