Household Debt Up Again

The latest RBA chart pack, released today includes data on household debt. Debt a a percentage of disposable income is up again, to an all time high. This is driven by flat income growth, and ever more home loan borrowing. Even after the May interest rate cut,  interest paid as a proportion of disposable income has risen.

household-finances(1)This is of course an average, and segmented data contains considerable variation.

Getting Government Debt In Perspective

A good piece in today’s The Conversation, examines the claim that the current government has lifted net government debt by $100 billion. This is proved to be correct, with caveats. However, some perspective is required in the debate. As highlighted in the piece, an important measure is debt to GDP. On that basis, on an international comparison, Australia is still well placed.

GDP Comparisons May 2016However, a recent report from LF Economics highlights that “while mainstream commentary and attention is firmly focused on public debt, the nation has accumulated a dangerously high level of private debt, including a moderately high level of external debt. Globally, Australia ranks near the top of indebted households. The exponential surge in mortgage debt issuance over the last two decades has generated the largest housing bubble in Australian economic history”. “Australia’s household debt ratio has grown above peaks established in countries where housing bubbles formed and burst, as in Ireland, Spain and the United States,” say report authors Philip Soos and Lindsay David. “So highly leveraged is the housing market that even small declines in residential land prices will have adverse consequences.”

Indeed, Australian households overtook the Swiss as the world’s most indebted this year, with outstanding debt equivalent to 125 per cent of GDP and no let up in sight. Combined owner-occupier and investor loans outstanding have risen from $1.2 trillion to $1.6 trillion in the past five years.

Here is the problem, the economic growth is being stoked by ever higher household debt, which is unsustainable. Why are we not getting better political discussion on this much more important issue during the election? The current economic path which has been set is unsustainable. The chart below makes the point – private debt should be the focus.

Australian Debt By CategoryAs we highlighted from the recent RBA chart pack, household debt to income is also sky high.

household-financesAnd here is data (from 2014) from the OECD showing the relative ratio of household debt to disposable income for Australia,  in comparison with other countries.

OECD-Debt-To-IncomeThe issue we SHOULD be talking about is the household debt overhang, and how we are going to deal with it. Government debt, in comparison is a side-show!

Our finances are a mess – could behavioral science help clean them up?

From The Conversation.

The first few months of a new year can be a stressful time financially. The Christmas holidays typically lead to depleted savings and higher credit card balances, while tax season is right around the corner.

Unfortunately for most us, this isn’t a seasonal dilemma but a chronic problem that brings anxiety throughout the year.

Indeed, as many as 44 percent of American households don’t have enough savings to cover basic expenses for even three months. Without a savings cushion, even regular seasonal expenses like holiday celebrations may end up feeling “unexpected” and lead households to turn to credit to cover costs.

U.S. consumers currently hold US$880 billion in revolving debt, with an average credit card balance of almost $6,000. The picture is even more dire for lower-income households.

So how can we turn this around? Many tacks have been tried but fallen short for one reason or another. Fortunately, behavioral science offers some useful insights, as our research shows.

What’s wrong with current approaches

Typical approaches to solving problematic finances are either to “educate” people about the need to save more or to “incentivize” savings with monetary rewards.

But when we look at traditional financial education and counseling programs, they have had virtually no long-term impact on behavior. Similarly, matched savings programs are expensive and have shown mixed results on savings rates. Furthermore, these approaches often prioritize the need for savings while treating debt repayment as a secondary concern.

Education and incentives haven’t worked because they are based on problematic assumptions about lower-income consumers that turn out to be false.

The truth is lower-income consumers don’t need to be told what to do. On average, they are actually more aware of their finances and better at making tradeoffs than more affluent consumers.

They also don’t need to be convinced of the value of saving. Many want to save but face additional obstacles to financial health.

For example, these households often face uncertainty about their cash flows, making planning for expenses even more difficult. More generally, they have little room for error in their budgets and the costs of small mistakes can compound rapidly.

Brain barriers

In this volatile context, psychological barriers common to all people exacerbate the problem.

People have difficulty thinking about the future. We treat our future, older selves as if they are strangers, decreasing motivation to make tradeoffs in the present. Additionally, we underpredict future expenses, leading us to spend more than precise budgeting can account for.

When we do focus on the future, people have a hard time figuring out which financial goals to tackle.

In research that we conducted with Rourke O’Brien of the University of Wisconsin, we found that consumers often focus either on saving money or on repaying debt. In reality, both actions simultaneously interact, contributing to overall financial health.

This can be problematic when people misguidedly take on high-interest debt while holding money in low-interest saving accounts at the same time. And, once people have identified building savings or repaying debt as an important goal, they have difficulty identifying how much should be put toward it each month. As a result, they rely on information in the environment to help determine this amount (like getting “anchored” on specific numbers that are presented as suggestions on credit card payment statements).

Unfortunately, the way current banking products are designed often makes these psychological realities worse.

For example, the information on many credit card payment systems nudges consumers toward paying the minimum balance rather than a higher amount. Budgeting tools assume income and expenses stay the same from month to month (not true for most lower-wage workers) and expect us to monitor spending against a long list of separate, complicated budget categories.

On a deeper level, the fact that banks offer credit and savings products separately exacerbates the psychological distance between paying down debt and building savings, even though these are linked behaviors.

Behavioral banking

The good news is that a range of simple, behaviorally informed solutions can easily be deployed to tackle these problems, from policy innovations to product redesign.

For instance, changing the “suggested payoff” in credit card statements for targeted segments (i.e., those who were already paying in full) could help consumers more effectively pay down debt, as could allowing tax refunds to be directly applied toward debt repayment. Well-designed budgeting tools that leverage financial technology could be integrated into government programs. The state of California, for example, is currently exploring ways to implement such technologies across a variety of platforms.

But the public and private sectors both need to play a role for these tools to be effective. Creating an integrated credit-and-saving product, for example, would require buy-in from regulators along with financial providers.

While these banking solutions may not close the economic inequality gap on their own, behaviorally informed design shifts can be the missing piece of the puzzle in these efforts to fix major problems.

Our research indicates that people already want to be doing a better job with their finances; we just need to make it a little less difficult for them. And making small changes to banking products can go a long way in helping people stabilize their finances so they can focus on other aspects of their lives.

Authors: Hal Hershfiel, Assistant Professor of Marketing, University of California, Los Angeles; Abigail Sussma, Assistant Professor of Marketing, University of Chicago.

RBA Banking On Household Spending Growth

In the latest minutes, released today, there was interesting commentary on their perspective of household consumption growth, savings ratio, and housing activity. They are expecting a growth in household consumption. However, this does not necessarily jive with DFA’s Household Finance Confidence Index, which reported a fall in the most recent results.

Turning to developments in the household sector, members noted that growth in household consumption had increased in the September quarter to be close to its decade average in year-ended terms. Growth was expected to be similar in the December quarter, based on recent retail sales data, indications from the Bank’s retail liaison that trading conditions had improved in the Christmas and post-Christmas sales period, and surveys suggesting that perceptions of households’ own finances remained above average. Household consumption growth had been supported by low interest rates, lower petrol prices and increasing employment, despite relatively subdued household income growth. These factors were expected to support a further increase in consumption growth over the forecast period.

Members observed that although the saving ratio had been declining, recent revisions to national accounts data suggested that this decline was not as pronounced as previously thought. As a result, the saving ratio had remained close to 10 per cent over the past five years, which was a significant step up from its average over the previous two decades but not particularly high from a longer-run perspective.

Dwelling investment had increased strongly over the year to the September quarter and further growth was anticipated, albeit at a gradually declining rate. This was consistent with building approvals, which were at a high level, although lower than in early 2015. Members noted that some other indicators of dwelling investment, including loan approvals for new construction, had been more positive in recent months. Information from liaison contacts indicated that demand for high-density housing in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane had been sufficient to absorb the increase in the supply that had come onto the market, whereas demand had been somewhat weaker in Perth, which had experienced a decline in prices and rents for apartments over the past year. To date, there had not been any substantive signs of financial distress from developers, but there had been an increasing number of projects put on hold, particularly in areas where there were concerns about potential oversupply. Conditions in the established housing market more generally had eased in recent months. Housing prices had declined a little from September 2015 and auction clearance rates had fallen from very high levels to around their long-run averages.

Housing credit growth overall had stabilised at around 7½ per cent, following a period of rising growth since late 2012. Growth in credit to investors in housing had declined, offset by an increase in growth in credit to owner-occupiers. This was consistent with the larger increase in mortgage rates for investors and the strengthening of banks’ non-price lending terms in response to earlier supervisory actions.