Tag: Job Ads

The ANZ Job Ads series for January, released today shows a significant rise in January, and reversing the December fall.

Job advertisements jumped 4.0% m/m in January more than reversing the 2.2% fall in the previous month. Annual growth in job ads bounced to 7.1% y/y, up sharply from 3.7% y/y in December.

In trend terms, job ads rose 0.6% m/m once again in January. The annual rate picked up slightly to be 6.1% y/y this month from 5.5% y/y in December.

“The solid rise in ANZ job ads in January is consistent with the increase in business conditions and confidence reported last week. The bounce in conditions, ongoing strength in house prices and last week’s mammoth trade surplus, suggest to us that the underlying fundamentals of the
economy remain solid despite the disappointing Q3 GDP report.

That being said, not all recent data have been strong. While the jobs report posted reasonable employment growth (including in full-time employment), the uptick in the unemployment rate was disappointing.

But the bounce in ANZ job ads, along with modest increases in other leading indicators, lends support to our view that although momentum in the labour market has slowed, it remains strong enough to underpin a gradual decline in the unemployment rate this year.”

According to the ANZ,  Job advertisements fell 1.9% m/m in December following a 1.6% rise in the previous month. Annual growth in job ads dropped to 3.7% y/y, down from 6.0% y/y in November.

In trend terms, job ads rose 0.3% m/m in November, a touch lower than the 0.4% rise in the previous month. Annual growth remained stable at 4.7% y/y in the month of December, but has fallen sharply from an average of 9.4% y/y over Q1 2016.

ANZ Senior Economist Jo Masters commented:

“After four consecutive monthly rises, ANZ job ads fell sharply in December, the first fall since July 2016. This weakness is consistent with softer business conditions and corporate profitability.

While a disappointing outcome, we see the labour market as losing some of its previously strong momentum not stalling. Indeed, ANZ job ads rose by 0.5% over Q4 and in trend terms continue to rise.

While the labour market has clearly lost some momentum, business and consumer confidence remain elevated, capacity utilisation appears to be on the rise, and retail sales have strengthened recently. As such, we continue to expect conditions in the labour market to support an ongoing, albeit gradual, decline in the unemployment rate this year.”

According to ANZ, Job advertisements rose 1.0% m/m in October after virtually no change in September. Annual growth in job ads rose to 5.2% from 3.8% in the previous month.

In trend terms, job ads rose 0.4% m/m in October, a touch lower than the 0.5% m/m rise in September. While trend annual growth in job advertisements has slowed – 4.8% y/y compared to 11.4% y/y a year ago – it remains consistent with a gradual improvement in the labour market.

ANZ said “The rise in ANZ job ads is encouraging and points to ongoing improvement in labour market conditions. It is consistent with the moderate pace of economic growth, as well as above average business and consumer sentiment

Overall, our assessment is that the labour market will continue to improve at a gradual pace and the unemployment rate will continue to edge lower, supported by low interest rates and still elevated business conditions.

That said, excess capacity in the labour market is likely to continue to weigh on wage growth over the medium term. While the unemployment rate has fallen from a recent peak of 6.3%, underutilisation remains high by historical standards, suggesting that there remains a considerable amount of spare capacity in the labour market. While we think that wage growth has stabilised at a low level, the high rate of underutilisation suggests that wages are unlikely to accelerate significantly in the near term”.

 

ANZ says after posting a solid gain in August, ANZ job ads edged lower in September.

Job advertisements fell 0.3% m/m in September after a 1.7% rise in August. Annual growth  in job ads slowed to 3.7% from 8.0% in the previous month. In trend terms, job ads rose 0.3% m/m and 5.2% y/y. While trend annual growth in job  advertisements has slowed, it remains consistent with a gradual improvement in the labour market.

The fall is consistent with some loss of momentum in labour markets this year, and more recently, in surveyed business conditions. It is also consistent with the RBA’s business liaison which reported that some firms had taken a more cautious approach towards hiring.

That said, job ads and still-elevated business conditions continue to suggest that the labour market remains in good shape. Indeed, the rise in job ads over the past three months is consistent with moderate annual employment growth, which should be sufficient to underpin a further decline in the unemployment rate, albeit at a gradual pace

ANZ says after falling in July, job advertisements bounced a solid 1.8% m/m in August and are up 8% over the past year. In trend terms, job ads were up 0.5% m/m, suggesting a moderate pace of labour market improvement.

“The bounce in ANZ job ads in August is an encouraging sign that the improvement in labour market conditions is continuing. The rise in job ads is consistent with the ongoing strength in business conditions and increasing capacity utilisation reported in the business surveys.

The pace of improvement in job ads suggests that labour market conditions are improving moderately. While it does not suggest a rapid turnaround in the unemployment rate, it points to ongoing growth in employment. At current levels, the rate of job ads growth is consistent with employment growing at an annual pace of close to 2% y/y.

Overall, this is consistent with our view that the unemployment rate will slowly improve over the next year, supported by low interest rates and solid business conditions.”

According to the latest ANZ Australian Job Ads, Job advertisements fell 0.8% m/m in April and remain broadly unchanged since October last year. In trend terms, job ads fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.2% m/m in April. The number of internet job ads fell 0.7% m/m in April and the more volatile newspaper component dropped 6.2% m/m.

ANZ says:

The number of job ads has been broadly flat now for six months. This follows a period of substantial growth in employment, so some modest slowdown should probably not be surprising. The moderation in job ads could alternatively reflect some uncertainty by firms around the near term outlook, given the double dissolution election in July, or a general softening of the economic outlook.

The reaction to the 2016 Budget has been quite mixed, and the RBA’s cut in its cash rate last week to an historic low of 1.75% highlights the challenges for Australia’s economy. While business surveys suggest activity is still robust, the stimulus from housing and the lower AUD is likely to fade somewhat in 2016, and growth is likely to moderate. Inflation is very low and likely to stay outside the RBA’s 2-3% target band for some time.

ANZ job ads suggest that the economy has lost some momentum after strong growth in H2 2015. Hiring looks to be taking a breather for the time being, and further significant inroads into the unemployment rate may be more difficult to achieve in the near term.