Peak Industry Body Defends Current Broker Remuneration

Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) has lodged its response to the royal commission’s interim report, arguing that brokers should not be “forced into even more documentary disclosure” regarding commissions and reiterating its support of the current remuneration structure, via The Adviser.

The interim report from the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry was released at the end of September, raising a swathe of questions regarding the mortgage broking industry.

In the report, the commission questioned some aspects of broker remuneration (including the perceived conflicts of upfront and trail commissions based on loan value and the now largely defunct volume-based commissions), outlined that there was “no simple legal answer” for explaining whom an intermediary (such as a broker) acts for, and questioned the need for a new duty on brokers.

“[I]t will be important to consider whether value and volume-based remuneration of intermediaries should be forbidden,” the commissioner wrote in his report, outlining findings from ASIC’s remuneration review that found that broker loans are marginally larger and have slightly higher loan-to-value ratios (LVRs).

While the full responses to the financial services royal commission have not yet been officially released, the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) has revealed that it has tabled a “substantive submission” focusing on disclosure obligations, remuneration structures, compliance with existing laws, and the commission’s call for greater regulation.

Speaking of the association’s submission, FBAA managing director Peter White warned of any wholesale changes to the current broker remuneration model, arguing that major change may be detrimental to the industry.

“We are concerned that a change to the existing structure without fully understanding the impact of any proposed model may simply disrupt a stable and important profession with no corresponding improvement,” Mr White said.

“The majority of misconduct has been due to market participants failing to follow existing laws. This shows that further reforms should not be contemplated until there is compliance with current laws.”

The FBAA also said that its submission disputes claims that lenders paying value-based upfront and trail commissions could be a possible breach of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act (NCCP).

“The relevant section does not prohibit conflicts of interest, only those causing disadvantage, yet the term disadvantage is imperfect and can’t be relied on. It’s our submission that the laws already in place strike an appropriate balance,” Mr White said.

Touching on remuneration disclosure to brokers, the FBAA emphasised that brokers already provide “lengthy disclosure documents”, while the NCCP Act ensures that clients are well informed about the costs and commissions.

“We don’t want brokers to be forced into even more documentary disclosure and that view accords with ASIC’s findings that consumers can disengage because of information overload,” Mr White said.

The managing director of the FBAA concluded that that while the association agrees with the commission’s interim report that improvements could be made, he “agreed” that new laws or regulations are not necessarily the answer.

“Some of the responses to the royal commission have verged on emotional or value proposition statements, and while most have merit, we have deliberately taken a strong legal approach to our language to ensure our messages are clearly understood by the commissioner, a High Court Judge,” Mr White said.

The seventh round of hearings for the final round of the financial services royal commission will be held at the Lionel Bowen Building in Sydney from 19 to 23 November and at the Commonwealth Law Courts Building in Melbourne from 26 to 30 November.

The hearings will focus on “causes of misconduct and conduct falling below community standards and expectations by financial services entities (including culture, governance, remuneration and risk management practices), and on possible responses, including regulatory reform”.

It is expected that the seventh round will be the final round of the financial services royal commission, unless Commissioner Hayne requests, and is granted, an extension.

Commissioner Kenneth Hayne is expected to release his final report, which will include the topics of the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds of hearings (focusing on superannuation, insurance and “policy questions arising from the first six rounds”, respectively) by 1 February 2019.

Genworth 3Q18 Pressure Continues As Mortgage Market Slows

Lenders Mortgage Insurer Genworth reported their 3Q18 earnings today with a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $19.6 million and underlying NPAT of $20.4 million for the third quarter ended 30 September 2018 (3Q18). It is an important bellwether for the mortgage industry, and confirms recent softening. Whilst they have a strong capital position, their net investment returns were also down a little.

The Delinquency Rate (number of delinquencies divided by policies in force but excluding excess of loss insurance) increased from 0.50% in 3Q17 to 0.55% in 3Q18 (1H18: 0.54%).  They called out “the continued trends of softening cure rates from a moderating housing market, tightening credit standards and increases in mortgage interest rates. This has resulted in a more subdued seasonal uplift than has historically been experienced by our business”. As a result, loss ratio guidance was revised higher to 50-55% from 40-50% guidance range previously.

Gross Written Premium increased in 3Q18 reflecting growth in their traditional Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) flow business.

New business volume (excluding excess of loss insurance), as measured by New Insurance Written (NIW), decreased 7.3% to $5.1 billion in 3Q18 compared with $5.5 billion in 3Q17. NIW in 3Q17 included $0.8 billion of
bulk portfolio business versus no bulk portfolio business in 3Q18. Excluding the bulk portfolio business written in 3Q17, flow business NIW increased 8.5% in 3Q18.

Gross Written Premium (GWP) increased 3.6% to $92.1 million in 3Q18 (3Q17: $88.9 million). This does not include any excess of loss business written by Genworth’s Bermudan entity and reflects the greater proportion of traditional LMI flow business written by Genworth lender-customers.

Net Earned Premium (NEP) decreased 32.0% from $100.1 million in 3Q17 to $68.1 million in 3Q18. This includes the adverse $24.8 million impact of the 2017 Earnings Curve Review, and lower earned premium from current and
prior book years. Excluding the 2017 Earnings Curve Review impact, NEP would have declined 7.2% in 3Q18.

The adverse impact on NEP of the 2017 Earnings Curve Review has been reducing quarter on quarter since it took effect on 1 October 2017. Whilst the 2017 Earnings Curve Review has the effect of lengthening the time-period over which premium is earned, it does not affect the quantum of revenue that will be earned.

Genworth’s Unearned Premium Reserve as at 30 September 2018 was $1.2 billion.

The Delinquency Rate (number of delinquencies divided by policies in force but excluding excess of loss insurance) increased from 0.50% in 3Q17 to 0.55% in 3Q18 (1H18: 0.54%). This was driven by two factors. Firstly, there was a decrease in policies in force following completion of the lapsed policy initiative undertaken by the Company in 2Q18. The second factor was the increase in delinquency rates year-on-year across all States (in particular Western Australia, New South Wales and to a lesser extent South Australia). In terms of number of delinquencies, Western Australia and New South Wales experienced the largest increase with Queensland and Victoria experiencing a decrease in number of delinquencies.

New delinquencies were down in the quarter (3Q18: 2,742 versus 3Q17: 2,887) with mining regions showing signs of improvement. In non-mining regions, the softening in cure rates experienced in 1Q18 and 2Q18 continued in 3Q18 with the traditional seasonal uplift in the third quarter being more subdued than prior years.

Net Claims Incurred for the quarter were down 3.2% (3Q18: $35.8 million versus 3Q17: $37.0 million). The Loss Ratio in 3Q18 was 52.6% up from 37.0% in 3Q17, reflecting the impact of lower NEP due to the 2017 Earnings Curve Review. Excluding the impact of the 2017 Earnings Curve Review the loss ratio would have been 38.6%.

The Expense Ratio in 3Q18 was 32.5% compared with 29.7% in 3Q17, reflecting the lower NEP.

Investment Income of $21.5 million in 3Q18 was up 38% on the prior corresponding period (3Q17: $15.6 million). The 3Q18 Investment Income included a pre-tax mark-to-market unrealised loss of $1.2 million ($0.8 million after-tax) versus a pre-tax mark-to-market unrealised loss of $12.0 million ($8.4 million after-tax) in 3Q17.

As at 30 September 2018 the value of Genworth’s investment portfolio was $3.2 billion, more than 90% of which is held in cash and highly rated fixed interest securities and $169 million of which is invested in Australian equities in line with the Company’s low volatility strategy. After adjusting for mark-to-market movements the 3Q18 investment return was 2.80% p.a. marginally down from 2.88% in 3Q17.

As property market softens, arrears are expected to rise.

Mortgage delinquencies have remained broadly stable over the year, but are expected to increase moderately as a result of the property market slowdown, according to Moody’s Investors Service, via MPA.

While the agency said it expected only a slight uptick in arrears over the coming year, it projected that NSW and Victoria would be the most affected, largely because of high household leverage in these states and the impact of interest-only loans switching to P&I repayments.

Keeping arrears contained, however, is completely reliant on solid macroeconomic conditions. If there is strong job growth and stable employment, borrowers will be more able to make their repayments.

It found that the proportion of residential mortgages that were more than 30 days in arrears was 1.58% in May 2018, compared to 1.62% in May 2017. As expected, delinquency rates were lower in capital cities. The most affected regions were Western Australia and Queensland, where borrowers have suffered from a lack of mining and resource-related jobs and drought.

However, another ratings agency, S&P, struck a more cautionary tone in its latest arrears report. It found that “there has been an ongoing increase in home loans that are more than 90 days in arrears”, which it defines as advanced.

“Loans more than 90 days past due reached 0.74% in August, making up around 54% of total arrears. This is up from 42% five years ago.”

The regional bank mortgage originators reported the highest percentage of loans in arrears in August, at 1.33%, followed by the major banks, at 0.99%. This heightened pressure regionally echoes Moody’s findings.

To re-cap, the number of loans in the “advanced stages of arrears” has to do with geographic pressures, repayment shock from the IO loan transition, general mortgage stress, and out-of-cycle rate rises, S&P said.

Likewise, the agency said it expected falling house prices to put further pressure on mortgage arrears in coming months, especially among borrowers with higher loan-to-value rations who haven’t had time to build up equity or accumulate mortgage buffers.

“This could tip some borrowers into a negative equity position, which would significantly impede their refinancing prospects in the current lending environment. Across all RMBS loan portfolios we expect borrowers with LTV ratios of 80% and higher to be most at risk. These loans account for around 13% of RMBS loan portfolios,” S&P said

AFG Says Home Lending Is In A Holding Pattern

AFG Mortgage Index figures released today show the country’s lending in a holding pattern with first home buyers the only category of buyer to record an increase for the first quarter of the 2019 financial year. Of course the AFG data only shows their own channels, but its a good indicator nevertheless.

The volume of mortgages processed by AFG declined 2% on the prior quarter. AFG brokers lodged 27,900 mortgages during Q1 19, totalling $14.2 billion, compared with 28,883 mortgages and $14.5 billion in the final quarter of the 2018 financial year.

AFG CEO David Bailey explained the results: “As the Financial Services Royal Commission continues to rattle the market Australian homebuyers are feeling the pinch as lenders tighten their borrowing criteria. Compared to the same quarter last year, lending volumes are down by just under 5% – a sure sign of a tightening market. The availability of credit has impacted investors most of all, with that category dropping by 1% to 27% of loans processed.

Refinancers were steady at 23% and Upgraders were also static at 43%.

New South Wales and Victoria are both down on the prior quarter, 2.5% and 6% respectively. Queensland also recorded a drop across the quarter, down 2%. Gains were recorded in SA – 2% up on last quarter, NT – up 22% and WA with an increase of 6% for the quarter.

Loan to Value Ratios (LVR) have increased in SA, NSW and WA.

The national average loan size has increased to a record $509,736, led by increases in average loan sizes in NSW, SA and Victoria.

“NSW has recorded an increase in average loan size of 3%, which we suspect is the result of a drop in apartment sales and lenders tightening criteria to investors – which are usually a lower average loan size. Both factors are driving up the average overall loan size in that state.

During the quarter many lenders moved to increase interest rates independent of the RBA, causing many borrowers to rethink their arrangements. “With the recent round of rate rises flowing through, many consumers have been speaking with their brokers to discuss the value of fixing all or part of their loans,” he said.

“Fixed rates have risen to 18.9% of loans by product category, whilst standard variable loans dropped to 64.3%. Basic variable products are also back in favour, increasing to 11.2% of all loans.

The major lenders clawed back some market share during the first quarter of the new financial year to now be sitting at 59.8%. This figure is still well below the high 70’s they had back in 2013, and much lower than they record outside of the third-party channel.

“The major lenders took some share from the non-majors after treading cautiously for the prior two quarters. The non-majors are still sitting at near historical highs with 40.2% market share after peaking at 40.8% last quarter.

“This is further evidence of the value brokers deliver to competition in the Australian lending market. Refinancers (55.5%) and Upgraders (60.5%) are favouring the competitive offers available from the non-major lenders.

US Banks’ Mortgage Revenue Will Stay Depressed As Interest Rates Rise Further

According to Moody’s, on 11 October, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. reported that US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates reached their highest level since April 2011.

The average rate was 4.90% for the week that ended 11 October, compared with 3.91% a year earlier. For US banks, higher mortgage rates will constrain mortgage origination volume, keeping their once-sizable mortgage banking revenue at depressed levels, a credit negative. Higher interest rates will also heighten the potential that some customers will have trouble servicing their existing debt and could translate into weaker credit quality, a further negative for US banks.

Mortgage banking revenue at US banks has been on a downward trajectory for some time. This reflects both a drop in origination volume and lower gain-on-sale margins. The volume decline has followed a multi-year period during which consumers took advantage of rising home values and historically low interest rates to refinance their mortgages. Now that refinancing volume is at a lower level, home purchases are the source of most current originations.

Reduced gain-on-sale margins reflect heightened pricing competition that resulted from excess industry capacity. Going forward, although volume may not increase because of the climb in interest rates, gain-on-sale margins could rise as industry capacity contracts.

The 12 October third-quarter 2018 earnings reports from some of the country’s largest banks illustrate these trends. As shown in the exhibit below, both Wells Fargo & Company and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the country’s two largest mortgage originators, released results that showed mortgage banking revenue remains at or near multi-year lows. Specifically, at Wells Fargo, although mortgage banking revenue climbed in the quarter, for the nine months that ended 30 September 2018, mortgage banking revenue accounted for 3.9% of total firm-wide revenue, down from 10.5% as recently as 2013. At JPMorgan Chase, mortgage banking revenue declined in the third quarter and, on a year-to-date basis, it accounted for just 1.3% of total firm-wide revenue, down from 5.4% in 2013.

The recent rise in mortgage interest rates makes it unlikely that US banks’ mortgage banking volume and revenue can rebound materially in the next few quarters. However, given that mortgage banking has long been a cyclical business, the banks can improve their profitability by reducing capacity, as they have done in prior periods of lower volumes. Indeed, both Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase were reported to have reduced hundreds of positions within their respective mortgage banking units in the past few months. We believe both firms’ recent performance and response are representative of the wider industry trend More broadly, the recent rise in interest rates heightens the potential that some borrowers will have trouble servicing their existing debt, raising the potential of higher loan delinquencies. However, the US economy remains robust and the banks’ latest earnings reports show continued strong credit quality, an indication that higher rates have not yet undermined existing loan performance.

More Industry Verbiage On Why The Royal Commission Is “Wrong”

I have to say I am getting a little tired of all the various industry bodies coming out and trying to defend their corner – Mortgage Brokers of course came in for some severe criticism in the Royal Commission, especially about conflicted advice in the context of commissions.   Remember the bigger the loan they write, the more they get paid!

The latest is the FBAA. This from The Adviser.

The industry association has responded to a suggestion made by Commissioner Hayne that the payment of value-based commissions to brokers “might” be breaching NCCP obligations.

Executive director of the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) Peter White has rejected claims made by Commissioner Kenneth Hayne in the interim report of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry.

Commissioner Hayne alleged that lenders paying value-based upfront and trail commissions could be in breach of section 47(1)(b) of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act (NCCP).

Section 47(1)(b) states that licensees must “have in place adequate arrangements to ensure that clients are not disadvantaged by any conflict of interest that may arise wholly or partly in relation to credit activities engaged in by the licensee or its representatives”.

However, Mr White said that the interim report did not find any systemic evidence to suggest that conflict of interest in the payment of commissions to brokers directly disadvantages clients.

The FBAA director added that he believes licensees already have “adequate arrangements” in place to prevent conflicts of interest.

Mr White added: “The commissioner pointed out that a breach of the NCCP is not an offence or open to civil penalty.

“I would argue that the cancellation or suspension of a broker’s licence by ASIC is a substantial penalty in itself.”

Mr White also sought to dismiss concerns raised by the commissioner over the number of loans submitted via the broker channel with higher loan-to-value ratios (LVRs).

“It’s the broker’s duty to put the client’s interest first and to meet, if not exceed, their expectations,” the FBAA executive director said.

“In meeting client needs, brokers are often asked to source higher leverage loans to appropriately support their needs, taking into account a client’s debt levels and loan-to-valuation ratios.

“It’s a broker’s ability to source a specific loan product to suit their client’s specific needs that gives us a market advantage.”

Mr White concluded by stating that brokers were at the forefront of efforts to improve service delivery and remuneration structures.

The FBAA echoed comments made by the Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia (MFAA), which told its members: “The self-regulatory approach the industry is taking through the [Combined Industry Forum] remains the best way to improve customer outcomes, standards of conduct and culture, while preserving and promoting a vibrant and competitive mortgage broking industry that encourages consumer choice.”

Submissions in response to the commission’s interim report can be made on the royal commission website and must be received no later than 5pm on 26 October 2018.

The commission will release a final report, which will include the topics of the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds of hearings (focusing on superannuation, insurance and “policy questions arising from the first six rounds”, respectively) by 1 February 2019.

Is HEM Dead?

The use of the Household Expenditure Measure as a benchmark for borrowers’ living expenses has been called into question by the royal commission, which has suggested that more verification needs to be undertaken, via The Adviser.

The interim report from the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry, which totals more than 1,000 pages over three volumes, has raised a number of “policy-related issues” arising from the first four rounds of public hearings, which covered consumer lending, financial advice, SME loans and the experiences of regional and remote communities with financial services entities.

As well as scrutinising broker commissions and banker incentives, Commissioner Kenneth Hayne looked at how lenders and brokers utilise the Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) when fulfilling their responsible lending obligations — an issue that arose during the first round of hearings and has recently been a source of debate in the broking industry.

In the interim report, Commissioner Hayne noted that the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (NCCP Act) requires credit licensees to assess whether the credit contract would be “unsuitable” for the consumer if the loan contract is made or (in the case of a credit limit increase) the limit is increased.

He highlighted that steps to ascertain whether the loan is unsuitable include “making reasonable inquiries” about the consumer’s requirements and objectives in relation to the credit contract, knowing the consumer’s financial situation and taking “reasonable steps” to verify the consumer’s financial situation.

However, Commissioner Hayne argued that the case studies from the first round of hearings suggested that “credit licensees too often have focused, and too often continue to focus, only on ‘serviceability’ rather than making the inquiries and verification required by law”.

He wrote in the interim report: “More particularly, identifying that the consumer’s income is larger than a general statistical benchmark for expenditures by consumers whose domestic circumstances are generally similar to those of the person seeking the loan does not reveal the particular consumer’s financial situation.

“All it does is convey information to the credit licensee that it may judge sufficient for it to decide that the risk of the consumer failing to service the loan is acceptable.

“Verification calls for more than taking the consumer at his or her word.”

Commissioner Hayne asked in the interim report: “If the consumer claims to have regular income, what step has the credit licensee taken to verify the claim?”

Lenders “more often than not” failed to verify outgoings

Noting that “verification is often not difficult” and can been made via bank statements, Commissioner Hayne added that although “the evidence showed that, more often than not, each of ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac took some steps to verify the income of an applicant for a home loan”, it also showed that “much more often than not, none of them took any step to verify the applicant’s outgoings”.

His interim report was critical of the industry’s reliance on HEM, with the report outlining: “The general tenor of the evidence was that a lender satisfied responsible lending obligations to verify a borrower’s financial position if the lender assessed the suitability of the loan by reference to the higher of a borrower’s declared household expenses and the Household Expenditure Measure (HEM) published by The Melbourne Institute (or some equivalent measure) and that verifying outgoings was ‘too hard’.

“But what was meant by verifying outgoings being ‘too hard’ was that the benefit to the bank of doing this work was not worth the bank’s cost of doing it.”

Commissioner Hayne highlighted the ANZ case study in which a borrower supplied ANZ a copy of his bank statement (from another lender) as verification of his income, but that the “outgoings recorded in that statement were obviously inconsistent with what the borrower recorded as his outgoings”.

He said: “ANZ’s procedures did not require consideration of, and in fact the relevant bank employees did not look at, the bank statement for any purpose other than verifying income.”

The commissioner noted that ANZ did not think that there was a “material uplift” in reviewing customer bank statements for general account conduct to identify whether there were “any obvious inconsistencies between a customer’s stated expenses and transaction history, or any general indicators of financial stress”.

He pointedly remarked that the bank “did not make reference to whether or not the responsible lending requirements suggested or required otherwise”.

Further, the interim report outlined that although Westpac (which recently paid a $35 million penalty for failing to verify expenses) has expanded its expenses categories this year, “in most cases, Westpac does not require customers to provide regular transaction statements for non-Westpac accounts, and the ‘verification’, as distinct from the ‘inquiry’, of the customer’s expenses remains largely with the customer”.

As well as the lack of income verification being undertaken, the interim report suggested that relying on the HEM benchmark was not always appropriate as it was only a “modest expenditure” calculation and “takes no account of whether a particular borrower has unusual household expenditures, as may well be the case, for example, if a member of the household has special needs or an aged parent lives with, or is otherwise cared for, by the family”.

Commissioner Hayne’s report concluded: “It follows that using HEM as the default measure of household expenditure does not constitute any verification of a borrower’s expenditure. On the contrary, much more often than not, it will mask the fact that no sufficient inquiry has been made about the borrower’s financial position. And that will be the case much more often than not because three out of four households spend more on discretionary basics than is allowed in HEM and there will be some households that spend some amounts on ‘non-basics’.”

He added: “Using HEM as the default measure of household expenditure assumes, often wrongly, that the household does not spend more on discretionary basics than allowed in HEM and does not spend anything on ‘non-basics’.”

As such, Commissioner Hayne asked: “Should the HEM continue to be used as a benchmark for borrowers’ living expenses?”

He also questioned whether the “processes used by lenders, at the time of the hearings, to verify borrowers’ expenses meet the requirements of the NCCP Act”.

The interim report has also asked members of the public to outline what steps, consistent with responsible lending obligations, a lender should take to verify a borrower’s expenses.

Submissions in response to the interim report can be made on the royal commission website and must be received no later than 5pm on 26 October 2018.

The commission will release a final report, which will include the topics of the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds of hearings (focusing on superannuation, insurance and “policy questions arising from the first six rounds”, respectively) by 1 February 2019.

UBS Sounds IO Mortgage Alarms

According to UBS’ Australian Banking Sector Update on 19 September, which involved an anonymous survey of 1,008 consumers who took out a mortgage in the last 12 months, 18 per cent stated that they “don’t know” when their interest-only (IO) loan expires, while 8 per cent believed their IO term is 15 years, which doesn’t exist in the Australian market, via InvestorDaily.

The research found that less than half of respondents, or 48 per cent, believed their IO term expires within five years.

The investment bank said that it found this “concerning” and was worried about a lack of understanding regarding the increase in repayments when the IO period expires.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) earlier this year revealed that borrowers of IO home loans could be required to pay an extra 30 per cent to 40 per cent in annual mortgage repayments (or an additional “non-trivial” sum of $7,000 a year) upon contract expiry. The central bank noted that the increase would make up 7 per cent, or $120 billion, of the total housing credit outstanding.

According to the RBA, 2020 is the year that most of the 200,000 at-risk IO loans will reset.

UBS’ research, which was conducted between July and August this year, revealed that more than a third of respondents, or 34 per cent, “don’t know” how much their mortgage repayments will rise by when they switch to principal and interest (P&I) contracts.

More than half, or 53 per cent, estimated that their repayments will increase by 30 per cent once their IO term ends, while 13 per cent expected their repayments to rise by more than 30 per cent, which is the base case for most IO borrowers.

“This indicates that the majority of IO borrowers remain underprepared for the step-up in repayments they will face,” UBS stated in its banking sector update report.

Further, nearly one in five respondents to the UBS survey, or 18 per cent, said that they took out an IO loan because they can’t afford to pay P&I.

“With a lack of refinancing options available and the banks reluctant to roll interest-only loans, these mortgagors will have to significantly pull back on their spending, sell their property, or [they] could potentially end up falling into arrears,” the investment bank stated in its report.

UBS also found it concerning that 11 per cent of respondents said they expected house prices to rise and planned to sell the property before the IO period expires.

“This is a risky strategy given how much the Sydney and Melbourne property markets have risen, and have now begun to cool,” the investment bank said.

Overall, the top two motivations for taking out an IO loan, according to UBS survey participants, were “lower monthly repayments gives more flexibility on my finances” (44 per cent) and “to maximise negative gearing” (43 per cent).

The second motivation was selected by 32 per cent of owner-occupier borrowers who cannot benefit from negative gearing as the tax incentive applies to investors, 53 per cent of which cited this benefit.

Most banks yet to implement tighter expense checks

The investment bank reiterated in its banking sector update that it expects mortgage underwriting standards to tighten further in the next 12 months. It claimed that, contrary to comments by regulators that “heavy lifting on lending standards is largely done”, most banks are yet to fully verify a customer’s living expenses and a large number of customers are still not submitting payslips and tax returns.

“As a result, we believe there is likely to be much work required for the banks to comply with the royal commission’s likely more rigorous interpretation of responsible lending and improve mortgage underwriting standards. We expect this is likely to play out over the next 12 months,” UBS stated in its update report.

UBS went on to maintain its belief that Australia is at risk of experiencing a “credit crunch” in the next couple of years, but it is waiting on a number of “signposts” to make a more calculated judgement. These include the Hayne royal commission’s interim and final report, major bank policies around living expenses, details from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority on debt-to-income caps, the federal election, changes in property prices, and sentiments from the RBA.

“We remain very cautious on the Australian banks,” the investment bank concluded in its update report.

“After a prolonged 26 years of economic growth, many excesses have developed in the Australian economy, in particular the Sydney and Melbourne housing market.

“We believe the royal commission creates an inflection point and credit conditions are tightening materially. Whether Australia can orchestrate an orderly housing slowdown remains to be seen, and we think the risks of a credit crunch are rising given the significant leverage in the Australian household sector.”

Brokers targeted in major litigation proceedings

Maurice Blackburn Lawyers has confirmed that it is preparing court proceedings against the major banks and brokers in regards to alleged breaches of the NCCP, according to The Adviser.

On Monday, media reports began circulating about rolling litigation being levelled at the major banks and brokers relating to alleged breaches of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (NCCP Act).

The move follows on from questions asked by the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry over whether credit providers have adequate policies in place to ensure that they comply with “their obligations under the National Credit Act when offering broker-originated home loans to customers, insofar as those policies require them to make reasonable inquiries about the consumer’s requirements and objectives in relation to the credit contract, to make reasonable inquiries about the consumer’s financial situation, and to take reasonable steps to verify the consumer’s financial situation”.

Earlier this year, the royal commission was damning in its critique of the lenders’ policies when it came to ensuring customers can afford their home loans, with ANZ being called out for their “lack of processes in relation to the verification of a customer’s expenses”, and both Westpac and NAB revealing that there had been instances of their staff accepting falsified documentation for loans.

Further, Westpac recently admitted to breaches of responsible lending obligations when issuing home loans to customers and agreed to pay a $35 million civil penalty to resolve Federal Court proceedings.

While there has not been any systemic issues with arrears rates or housing affordability to date, Maurice Blackburn has suggested that the reliance on benchmarks, such as the Household Expenditure Measure, coupled with a softening property market and the “maturity of interest-only loans”, could “leave thousands in financial ruin, staring at the prospect of bankruptcy”.

Further, the law firm took aim at the mortgage broker market, relying on some controversial statistics from investment bank UBS regarding the third-party channel.

Court proceedings expected “in the coming months”

In a statement to The Adviser, Maurice Blackburn principal Josh Mennen confirmed that the law firm is pursuing legal action, stating: “A combination of banks’ relaxed lending standards and brokers’ involvement in loan sales has resulted in widespread debt over-commitment that threatens the stability of the broader economy. A survey of more than 900 home loans conducted by investment bank UBS found that around $500 billion worth of outstanding home loans are based on incorrect statements about incomes, assets, existing debts and/or expenses.

“This means 18 per cent of all outstanding Australian credit is based on inaccurate information, often caused by poor advice or misrepresentations by a mortgage broker eager to generate a sale commission.”

It should be noted that the figures quoted are in relation to a UBS report which asked borrowers about the accuracy of their home loan applications, and that representatives from several bodies — including ASIC — have called into question the weight of this response, arguing that “for many consumers the additional work and additional steps that banks and other lenders are taking to verify someone’s financial situation won’t be apparent to them”.

For example, ASIC’s Michael Saadat, senior executive leader for deposit takers, credit and insurers, said last year that “consumers are probably not the best judge of what banks are doing behind the scenes to make sure borrowers can afford the loans they’re being provided with”.

In his statement to The Adviser, Mr Mennen continued: “A staggering 30 per cent of loans surveyed had been issued based on understated living costs and around 15 per cent on understated other debts or overstated income.

“Add to the equation the fact that a huge proportion of mortgage loans issued over the past decade were ‘interest-only loans’. These loans have an initial period (usually five years) where only the interest on the loan is repaid. However, after the interest-only period ends and the principal is also paid down, the loan repayments can increase between 30–60 per cent.”

While the principal conceded that this “problem has been contained” by investors being able to sell their interest-only investment properties and therefore “often fortunate enough to sell the investment property at a gain or at least break even, clearing the mortgage without too much pain,” he suggested that the current environment in which interest rates are rising, while some property markets (such as Sydney and Melbourne) are declining, could be cause for concern.

“These factors, in combination with the maturity of interest-only loans, will further drive up distress sales in a stagnant or contracting market and may leave thousands in financial ruin, staring at the prospect of bankruptcy,” the lawyer said.

Realising a prediction from UBS analysts that the evidence of “mortgage mis-selling and irresponsible lending” found during the royal commission could result in the banks being subject to “very costly” class actions, Maurice Blackburn is now mounting legal cases against banks and/or brokers.

Mr Mennen said: “We believe that, as consumers losses are crystallised, many will have strong claims for compensation against their lender and/or mortgage broker for breaches of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (NCCP Act) for failing to comply with responsible lending obligations including by not making reasonable inquiries and verifications about customers’ ability to repay the loan.

“We are acting for many such customers and are preparing to commence court proceedings against major banks in the coming months.”

It is not yet known which brokers or broker groups, if any, will be targeted in the legal action.

However, the corporate regulator has reiterated its view that lenders should be held accountable for breaches of responsible lending obligations, irrespective of whether the loan was broker-originated.

In its most recent Enforcement Outcomes report, which outlines the action the financial services regulator has taken over the first half of the calendar year, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) stressed that lenders should not offload blame to third parties when a loan is found to be in breach of responsible lending obligations.

What Have The Big Beasts In The Mortgage Industry To Fear?

Hot on the heels of Slater & Gordon launch of the ‘Get Your Super Back’ campaign, today I discussed the current state of the mortgage industry with Roger Brown a prime mover in the class action being planned against both major lenders and banking regulators. Looks like November will be an important check point.