Tag: Mortgage Stress Heat Maps

We continue our series featuring the results of our November Mortgage stress update. Today we look at Greater Adelaide and South Australia. In SA we estimate there are 80,530 households in mortgage stress, which equates to 28.3% of borrowing households in the state.  We estimate that 3,900 risk 30-day default in the next 12 months.

Here is the mortgage stress map for Adelaide and the surrounding area.

The post code with the highest number of households in stress is 5108, Paralowie and Salisbury with 2,821; a suburb of Adelaide, North & North East Suburbs about 19 kms from the CBD.  There are around 10,500 households in the area, and the average age is 34 years. The ABS Census says children aged 0 – 14 years made up 20.8% of the population and people aged 65 years and over made up 12.3% of the population.

80% of households here live in separate houses. Around 40% have property with a mortgage. The average mortgage repayment is $1,300 a month. The average monthly household income is around $4,440 giving an average loan to income ratio of 29.1%.  The SA income average is higher at $5,250.  In 2010, the average home price was around $210,000 compared with 285,000 today, reflecting average annual growth of around $12,000, well below the national average.

5108 is ranked 90 on our national default ranking.

Next time we look at Perth and WA

 

Continuing our series on mortgage stress, we feature the results for Brisbane and QLD today. Overall, in the state, stress has fallen a little thanks to brighter employment prospects, especially in the south east. However, some regional areas are under severe pressure.

We estimate there are 157,019 households across the state, down from 162,726 last month. However, around 9,600 in QLD risk default over the next 12 months.

Here is the stress mapping for Greater Brisbane to November 2017.

The post code with the highest stress count is 4350, around Drayton and Toowoomba, about 100 kilometres from Brisbane. We estimate 5,975 households are in mortgage stress. The average home price is $490,000, compared with $382,000 in 2010. There are about 27,000 households in the region and the average age is 37. The average income is $5,300 a month. Around 30% have a mortgage and the average mortgage repayment is $1,510.

Here is the top 10 listing across the state, together with the national default ranking.

Next time we look at South Australia.

 

 

 

Continuing our series on mortgage stress, we feature the results for Melbourne and VIC today. In fact more than half the post codes nationally in the top 10 are in VIC, so risks are rising fast here (and prices are still rising too!).

In November another 3,000 households in VIC slipped into stress, reaching a new high of 253,000. 13,000 of these risk default in the next 12 months.

Next, here is the overall listing of the top 10 most stressed post codes across VIC as at the end of November 2017. We also show the relative default risk ranking across the country. Cranbourne has the 2nd highest default ranking nationally this month.

The most stressed post code in the state is 3805, which includes Narre Warren and Fountain Gate. This area is around 38 kilometers south east of Melbourne. Here 5,076 households are in mortgage stress. The average home price is $545,000 compared with $366,000 in 2010.  There are more than 15,000 families in the area, and the average age is 34 years. The average household income is just over $7,000 a month, which is higher than the national average. 54% of homes are mortgaged and the average monthly repayment is $1,700 slightly below the national average of $1,755.

Next is 3806, Berwick and Harkaway which is around 40 kilometers south east of Melbourne, with 4,923 households in mortgage stress. The average home price is $625,000 compared with $451,000 in 2010. There are around 13,000 families in the area, with an average age of 36. More than 47% of households here have a mortgage and the average repayment is $1,850 compared with the average income of $7,600.

Next is 3810, Packenham, with 4,693 households now in mortgage stress and in the same position as last month. It is around 54 kms south east of Melbourne. The average home price is around $435,000 compared with $290,000 in 2010. According to the latest census the average age is 32 years and there are more than 12,600 families in the district. The average monthly household income is $5,900, below the average in the state as well as nationally. 46% of homes have a mortgage, compared with the VIC average of 35%. The average monthly mortgage repayment is $1,700.

Then comes 3064 Craigieburn, Mickleham and Roxburgh Park.  It is about 24 kms North from Melbourne. Around 4,445 households in the area are in mortgage stress. There are about 19,300 households in the area and the average age is 30. The average home prices in 2010 was $335,500 and is now worth $489,400. The average income is around $6,400, which is slightly above the Victorian and Australian averages.  88% of properties in the area are separate houses, and most have three or more bedrooms. More than 56% of homes here are mortgaged and the average repayment each month is $1,733, which is close to the average in Victoria, but lower than the Australian average.

Next is post code 3350, which includes Ballarat and the surrounding area, It’s about 100 kilometres from Melbourne and is down one place from last month. In this region there are 4,429 households in mortgage stress. The average property value is $335,000, compared with $281,000 in 2010. There are more than 14,500 families in the area and the average age is 37, line ball with the average across the state. The average monthly income is $5,300, well below the national and state averages. Around 33% of households have a mortgage and the average repayment is $1,408 a month.

Finally is post code 3037, which includes areas around Delahey, Hillside and Sydenham; around 20 kms north west of Melbourne.  Here around 4,268 households are in mortgage stress. Of the 13,000 households in the district, more than half have a mortgage and the average age is 33. The average home price is around $530,000, up from $365,000 in 2010. The average monthly income is around $7,200 and the average mortgage repayment is $1,730.

We continue to see mortgage stress still strongly associated with fast growing suburbs, where households have bought property relatively recently, often on the urban fringe. The ranges of incomes and property prices vary, but note that it is not necessarily those on the lowest incomes who are most stretched. Banks have been more willing to lend to these perceived lower risk households but the leverage effect of larger mortgages has a significant impact and the risks are underestimated.

Next time we will look at Brisbane.

 

Having released our November Mortgage Stress analysis, we now look across the states in more detail. Today we look at NSW and Greater Sydney.

NSW has 251,576 households in stress, up 9,000 from last month, and we estimated there are around 13,900 households at risk of default over the next 12 month in the state.

Here is the stress mapping around Great Sydney of the count of households in difficulty. We see a swathe of issues across Western Sydney.

The post code with the highest count of stressed household is 2170, the area around Liverpool, Warwick Farm and Chipping Norton, which is around 27 kilometers west of Sydney. There are 6,807 households in mortgage stress here. The average home price is $803,000 compared with $385,000 in 2010. There are around 27,000 families in the area, with an average age of 34. The average income is $5,950. 36% have a mortgage and the average repayment is about $2,000 each month.

Next is the area around Campbelltown, 2560, which is around 43 kilometers inland from Sydney. Here 5,786 households are in mortgage stress. The average home price is $625,000, up from $320,000 in 2010. Around 20,000 households live in the area with an average age of 34 years. The average income is $6,100 a month. 37% have a mortgage and the average repayment is higher than the national average at $1,800.

We continue to see mortgage stress still strongly associated with fast growing suburbs, where households have bought property relatively recently, often on the urban fringe. The ranges of incomes and property prices vary, but note that it is not necessarily those on the lowest incomes who are most stretched. Banks have been more willing to lend to these perceived lower risk households but the leverage effect of larger mortgages has a significant impact and the risks are underestimated.

Next, here is the overall listing of the top 10 most stressed post codes across New South Wales as at the end of November 2017. We also show the relative default risk ranking across the country. We will explore risk of default further in a later post, not least because we get different distributions depending on whether we look at the number of defaults, or the absolute value at risk.

Meanwhile, in our next stress-related post, we will look at Victoria.