RBA – Page 84 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Home Lending Up To A Record $1.42 Trillion In December

The RBA released their credit aggregates for December 2014 today. Total credit grew by 5.9%, with housing recording 7.1%, Business 4.8% and Personal Credit 0.9% in annual terms. In the last month, housing lending grew 0.6% and business 0.5%.

Looking at the breakdown, we see that housing lending grew apace, powered by further significant investment lending. Total housing lending reached a record $1.42 trillion, thanks to growth of $3.5 billion in owner occupied loans (up 0.38%) and investment lending of $4.2 billion (up 0.87%) in the month. Investment loans now make up 34.3% of home lending, another record.

Overall, only 33% of all lending is productive finance for business purposes. Household and consumer debt continues to rise strongly. Household debt is at a record. This is one good reason (or should that be 1.42 trillion reasons?) why the RBA should not be cutting the cash rate.

The difference between the RBA numbers, which covers all lending for property, and the APRA data, which covers banks only, is explained by the non-bank sector. There has been little growth here in recent times.

Latest Banking Statistics

Last week saw the release of the November data from both the RBA and APRA. Looking at the overall summary data first, total credit grew by 5.9% in the year to November 2014. Housing lending grew at 7.1%, business lending at 4.6%, and personal credit by 1.1%.

Looking at home lending, in seasonally adjusted terms, total loans on book rose to $1.42 trillion, with owner occupied loans at $932 billion, and investment loans at $483 billion, which equals 34.2%, a record.

From the APRA data, loans by ADI’s were $1.31 trillion, with 34.82% investment loans, which grew at 0.84% in the month. Looking at relative shares, CBA continues to hold the largest owner occupied portfolio, whilst WBC holds the largest investment portfolio.

Looking at relative movement, WBC increased their investment portfolio the most in dollar terms. CBA lifted their owner occupied portfolio the most.

Turning to deposits, they rose 0.39% in the month, to 1.78 trillion.

There was little change in relative market share, though we noted a small drop at nab, which relates to their cutting deposit rates from their previous market leading position.

Finally, looking at the cards portfolios, the value of the market portfolio rose by $627 billion, to $41,052 billion. There were only minor portfolio movements between the main players.

How The Mining Boom Lifted Living Standards

In the RBA Bulletin for December 2014, there is a detailed analysis and modelling to show how the mining boom impacted the Australian economy. This is important because as we know the boom is fading, and the RBA has been looking for the housing sector to take up the slack.

The world price of Australia’s mining exports more than tripled over the 10 years to 2012, while investment spending by the mining sector increased from 2 per cent of GDP to 8 per cent. This ‘mining boom’ represents one of the largest shocks to the Australian economy in generations. This article presents estimates of its effects, using a macroeconometric model of the Australian economy. It summarises a longer research paper, which contains further details and discussion of the results (see Downes, Hanslow and Tulip (2014)). The model estimates suggest that the mining boom increased Australian living standards substantially. By 2013, the boom is estimated to have raised real per capita household disposable income by 13 per cent, raised real wages by 6 per cent and lowered the unemployment rate by about 1¼ percentage points. However, not all parts of the economy have benefited. The mining boom has also led to a large appreciation of the Australian dollar that has weighed on other industries exposed to trade, such as manufacturing and agriculture. However, because manufacturing benefits from higher demand for inputs to mining, the deindustrialisation that sometimes accompanies resource booms – the so-called ‘Dutch disease’ – has not been strong. Model estimates suggest that manufacturing output in 2013 was about 5 per cent below what it would have been without the mining boom.

Graph 3 also shows an estimate of the increase in the volume of goods and services produced arising from the boom. Higher mining investment directly contributes to higher aggregate demand. Furthermore, higher national purchasing power boosts consumption and other spending components. Higher mining investment also increases the national capital stock and hence aggregate supply. There are many further compounding and offsetting effects. The estimated net effect is to increase real GDP by 6 per cent.

The mining boom raises household income through several different channels within the model (Graph 8). As of 2013, employment was 3 per cent higher than in the counterfactual, largely due to the boost to aggregate demand. Real consumer wages were about 6 per cent higher, reflecting the effect of the higher exchange rate on import prices. Property income increased, reflecting greater returns to equities and real estate. A larger tax base led to lower average tax rates, all of which helped raise real household disposable income by about 13 per cent. As can be seen in Graph 8, household consumption is estimated to initially rise more slowly than real household disposable income. That is, the saving rate increases. This reflects inertia in consumption behaviour, coupled with a default assumption that households initially view the boom as temporary. In the medium to long run, as it becomes apparent that the change in income is persistent, savings return toward normal and consumption rises further. In the long run, consumption will adjust by about the same proportion as the rise in household disposable income.

Changes in the composition of consumption are an important determinant of how the mining boom affected different industries (Graph 9). Demand for motor vehicles and other consumer durables are estimated to have increased strongly, reflecting lower import prices and strong income growth. Relative price changes for most other categories of consumption were smaller, with consequently less effect on their relative demand.

The mining boom can be viewed as a confluence of events that have boosted mineral commodity prices, mining investment and resources production. This combination of shocks has boosted the purchasing power and volume of Australian output. It has also led to large changes in relative prices, most noticeably an appreciation of the exchange rate. The combination of changes in income, production and relative prices has meant large changes in the composition of economic activity. While mining, construction and importing industries have boomed, agriculture, manufacturing and other trade-exposed services have declined relative to their expected paths in the absence of the boom. Households that own mining shares (including through superannuation) or real estate have done well, while renters and those who work in import-competing industries have done less well.

Payment Card Access Regimes

The Reserve Bank has varied the Access Regimes for the MasterCard and Visa credit card systems and revoked the Access Regime for the Visa Debit system. The variations and revocation are effective from 1 January 2015.

In March 2014, the Payments System Board made an in-principle decision to modify the Access Regimes. This reflected its conclusion that, while the original Access Regimes were appropriate when introduced, changes in industry structure and in the ownership of the card systems had meant that the regimes were now unduly restricting access. Accordingly, the amended framework will provide the card systems with the flexibility to expand membership beyond existing participants. The card systems will be required to have in place transparent eligibility and assessment criteria and to report information about membership and applications to the Bank.

The Visa Debit regime was originally introduced to deal with technical issues arising from the interaction of Visa’s rules and the credit card Access Regime; these issues no longer apply and accordingly the Visa Debit regime will be revoked.

At the time of its in-principle decision in March, the Board noted that implementation was contingent on a number of other factors. Most importantly, amendment of the Banking Regulations 1966 was required for the variations to be effective. Amendments to the Banking Regulations that mean that credit card issuing and acquiring will no longer be considered banking business come into force on 1 January 2015.

Fast Retail Payment Systems

In the December 2014 edition of the RBA Bulletin, there is an important article on the emerging fast retail payment systems. Here are some of the most salient points:

In December 2014, a group of Australian financial institutions announced that funding had been secured for the next phase of the New Payments Platform (NPP), which will provide the capability for Australian consumers and businesses to make and receive payments in near to real time. The NPP is one example of a fast retail payment system, a number of which have been implemented in other countries in recent years.

Advances in technology – in particular improved telecommunications, faster processing speeds and wide penetration of internet connectivity – mean that real-time payments can be extended to the high-volume, low-value payments used by consumers and businesses (‘retail payments’). Systems implemented in a number of countries allow businesses and consumers to make and receive payments in near to real time, with close-to-immediate funds availability to the recipient. Fast retail payment systems can benefit end users of payments systems, and also payment providers themselves – for example, by replacing the use of relatively costly cheque payments with real-time transfers using a payment application on a mobile device.

Fast retail payments can be thought of as payments that are available for use by the recipient a short time after the payment has been initiated by the sender – within minutes, or indeed seconds. This contrasts with many established retail payment systems that rely on batch processing where funds are made available on the next business day, or even several days later – particularly in the case of cheques. There are three steps within the payment process relevant for achieving fast payments – clearing, posting and settlement. First, following the initiation of a payment by the customer (payer), the exchange of payment instructions and the calculation of payment obligations between financial institutions (referred to collectively as ‘clearing’) need to be performed in real time. Many retail payment systems have tended to clear payments infrequently in batches, making timely receipt of funds by the payee impossible. Second, the recipient’s financial institution must act on the payment instructions it receives in the clearing process to make funds available to the recipient (‘posting’) in near to real time. Finally, the payer’s financial institution needs to ‘settle’ the funds owing to the receiver’s financial institution for the payment. This typically occurs by transferring funds between accounts held by financial institutions at the central bank (Exchange Settlement Accounts in Australia’s case). Clearing and posting need to occur quickly for a system to be, in effect, a ‘fast’ system. However, settlement between financial institutions need not be completed before funds are made available to the recipient customer. There is therefore freedom for settlement to occur in a number of ways and indeed the fast retail payment systems implemented to date have taken varying approaches. While there have been significant developments in recent years, the concept of fast retail payments is not new. For example, Japan’s Zengin Data Telecommunication System (Zengin System) was established in 1973. The development of fast payment systems has generally occurred in one of two ways: through the extension of existing infrastructures (such as high-value systems or real-time ATM infrastructure) to accommodate high-volume, fast retail payments, or through new purpose-built infrastructure. In most cases, new specialised infrastructure has been adopted for retail payments, but there are examples of hybrid systems processing both high-value and retail payments. For example, Japan’s Zengin System clears both high-value and low-value funds transfers in near to real time, but settlement arrangements vary with transaction size. Switzerland’s Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC) provides for near to real time clearing and settlement of high-value payments and some retail funds transfers. A range of other countries have introduced fast retail payment systems either as hybrid systems or as dedicated low-value systems since 2000. Australia’s NPP system will rely on newly developed clearing infrastructure, with settlement occurring in real time through a new component of the Reserve Bank’s high-value settlement system, the Reserve Bank Information and Transfer System (RITS).

The use of mobile phones as an access channel for fast payment services is a focus for a number of fast payment systems, including in the United Kingdom, Sweden and Singapore. This dovetails particularly well with some services for easier addressing of payments. For instance, the Paym service recently introduced in the United Kingdom enables mobile phone numbers to be used as payment addresses for person-to-person payments (Payments Council 2014). Users register their mobile phone number and link it to their bank account number. They can then send and receive real-time payments to other registered users using their mobile phone numbers through their bank’s internet portal.

The broad approach to providing infrastructure that would support fast retail payments in Australia was established by the industry Real-Time Payments Committee (RTPC) and published in February 2013 (APCA 2013). The RTPC proposed the establishment of a mutual collaborative clearing utility to provide the payments infrastructure to which authorised deposit-taking institutions would be connected for real-time clearing of payments. This utility, known as the Basic Infrastructure (BI), will not be commercial in nature and will provide a platform through which a variety of payment services can be offered. While financial institutions will be able to offer basic payment services to their customers using only the BI, the model proposed by the RTPC anticipates that a variety of ‘overlay services’ will be able to use the BI to offer commercially oriented services, for instance through a commercial scheme. Participation by financial institutions in any particular commercial overlay would be voluntary. This model was chosen with the view that it would provide the greatest scope for innovation and competition between financial institutions and payment providers in the services that can be offered to end users. The RTPC also proposed that an agreed overlay service, referred to as the ‘Initial Convenience Service’ (ICS), would be built at the same time as the BI, to help establish a compelling proposition for use of the NPP from the outset. While the ICS will be the first overlay to give payments system users access to fast retail payments, it is intended to be the first of a number of overlay services that could be developed over time. The BI and the ICS comprise two of the three main components of the NPP. In addition, the Reserve Bank is developing a Fast Settlement Service (FSS) that will provide line-by-line real-time settlement of transactions processed through the NPP. This model will enable real-time clearing and settlement for retail payments, with the recipient’s financial institution able to provide fast access to funds without incurring interbank settlement risk. The interaction of these three components – BI, ICS and FSS – is illustrated below (Figure 1). Consistent with the approach taken in recently developed fast retail payment systems, the NPP will operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and will incorporate ISO 20022 messaging standards to facilitate the inclusion of richer remittance information with transactions. The NPP model also includes an addressing solution, enabling users to receive payments without having to supply BSB and account numbers to the payer. This combination – of real-time capability, 24/7 operations, richer messaging functionality and easier addressing – addresses the key gaps in the payments system identified by the Strategic Review. The capacity for new overlay services to utilise the system should also be a vehicle for innovation and competition.

Rates Unlikely to Change Anytime Soon

The minutes from the December RBA Board meeting were released today. Looks like rates will stay at current levels for some time yet.

In assessing the stance of monetary policy in Australia, members noted that the outlook for the global economy was little changed over the past month, with growth of Australia’s major trading partners forecast to be a little above average in 2014 and 2015. Commodity prices, particularly those for iron ore and oil, had declined over the year to date. Demand-side factors, such as the weakness in Chinese property markets, had played a role over recent months, though expansions in global supply appeared to have played a larger role earlier in the year. Global financial market conditions had remained very accommodative.

Domestically, the data that had become available over the month suggested that the forces underpinning the outlook for domestic activity were much as they had been for some time. GDP growth was still expected to be below trend over 2014/15 before gradually picking up to an above-trend pace towards the end of 2016. Mining investment was expected to decline sharply and resource exports were expected to grow strongly as the transition from the investment to the production phase of the mining boom continued. Very low interest rates had supported activity in the housing market, which in turn was expected to support consumption. However, members noted that subdued labour market conditions were likely to weigh on consumption growth and consumer confidence more generally. With spare capacity in labour and product markets likely to weigh on domestic inflationary pressures for some time, the inflation outlook remained consistent with the target of 2 to 3 per cent, notwithstanding some temporary upward pressure from the recent depreciation of the exchange rate.

Members noted that the current accommodative setting of monetary policy was expected to support demand and help growth strengthen at the same time as delivering inflation outcomes consistent with the target over the next two years. Despite the depreciation of the exchange rate, the Australian dollar remained above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices over recent months. Members agreed that further exchange rate depreciation was likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy. They noted that market expectations implied some chance of an easing of policy during 2015 and discussed the factors that might be producing such an expectation.

On the information available, the Board judged that the current stance of monetary policy continued to be appropriate for fostering sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. Members considered that the most prudent course was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.

Housing Finance Regulation – Tweaked, Not Reformed

Fresh on the heels of the FSI report, the core thesis of which is that the Australian Banks are too big to fail, so capital buffers must be increased to protect Australia from potential risks in a down turn (a “mild” crash could lead to the loss of 900,000 jobs and a $1-2 trillion or more cost to the economy), it was interesting to see the publication yesterday by APRA of the guidelines for mortgage lending, and ASIC’s targetting interest only loans. This action is coordinated via the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR). This body is the conductor of the regulatory orchestra, and has only had an independant website since 2013. It is the coordinating body for Australia’s main financial regulatory agencies. It is a non-statutory body whose role is to contribute to the efficiency and effectiveness of financial regulation and to promote stability of the Australian financial system. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chairs the Council and members include the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), and The Treasury. The CFR meets in person quarterly or more often if circumstances require it. The meetings are chaired by the RBA Governor, with secretariat support provided by the RBA. In the CFR, members share information, discuss regulatory issues and, if the need arises, coordinate responses to potential threats to financial stability. The CFR also advises Government on the adequacy of Australia’s financial regulatory arrangements.

Whilst FSI recommended beefing up ASIC, and introducing a formal regulatory review body, it did not fundamentally disrupt the current arrangements. Interestingly, CFR is a direct interface between the “independent” RBA and Government.

So, lets consider the announcements yesterday. None of the measures are pure macroprudential, but APRA is reinforcing lending standards by introducing potential supervisory triggers (which if breached may lead to more capital requirements, or other steps) using an affordability floor of 7% or more (meaning if product interest rates fell further, banks could not assume a fall in serviceability requirements) and at least an assumed rise in rates of 2% from current loan product rates. In addition, any lender growing their investment lending book by more than 10% p.a. will be subject to additional focus (though APRA makes the point this is not a hard limit). These guidelines relate to new business, and does not directly impact loans already on book (though refinancing is an interesting question, will existing borrowers who refinance be subject to new lending assessment criteria?) ASIC is focussing on interest-only loans, which are growing fast, and are often related to investment lending.

The banks currently have different policies with regards to serviceability buffers. Analysts are looking at Westpac in the light of these announcements, because it grew its investment housing lending book fast, uses 180 basis points serviceability buffer and an interest rate floor of 6.8%. Investment property loans make up ~45% of WBC’s housing loan portfolio (compared with the majors average of ~36%), and has grown at ~12% year on year this financial year (compared with the average across the majors of ~10%). WBC made some interesting comments in their recent investor presentation relating to investment loans, highlighting that investors tended to have higher incomes than owner occupied loans.

Other banks have different underwriting formulations with buffers of between 1.5% and 2.25% buffers. ASIC has of course also stressed that lenders must consider borrowers ability to repay and take account other expenditure. There is evidence of the “quiet word from the regulator” working as recently we have noted some slowing investment lending at WBC (currently they would be below the 10% threshold) and amongst some other lenders too. However, some of the smaller lenders may be impacted by APRA guidance, given stronger recent growth.

What does this all mean. First, we see now what APRA meant in their earlier remarks “collecting additional information, counselling the more aggressive lenders, and seeking assurances from Boards of our lenders that they are actively monitoring lending standards. We’re about to finalise guidance on what we see as sound mortgage lending practice”. Second, we do not think this will materially slow down housing investment lending, and this is probably what the RBA wants, given its belief consumer spending should replace mining investment as a source of growth. The regulators are trying to manage potential risks in the system, by targetting higher risk lending whilst letting housing lending continue to run. Third, it leaves open the door to macroprudential later if needed. Lastly, existing borrowers may be loathe to churn if they are now required to meet additional buffers. This may slow refinancing, and increase longevity of loans in portfolio (and loans held longer are more profitable for the banks).

RBA Rate Unchanged

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent.

Growth in the global economy is continuing at a moderate pace. China’s growth has generally been in line with policymakers’ objectives. While weakening property markets present a challenge in the near term, economic policies have been responding in a way that should support growth. The US economy continues to strengthen, but the euro area and Japan have both seen weakness recently. Some key commodity prices have declined significantly in recent months, reflecting somewhat softer demand and, more importantly, increased supply.

Global financial conditions remain very accommodative and long-term interest rates and risk spreads remain very low. Differences in monetary policies across the large jurisdictions are affecting markets, particularly exchange rates.

In Australia, most data are consistent with moderate growth in the economy. Resources sector investment spending is starting to decline significantly, while some other areas of private demand are seeing expansion, at varying rates. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued. Overall, the Bank still expects growth to be a little below trend for the next several quarters.

Inflation is running between 2 and 3 per cent, as expected, with recent data confirming subdued rises in labour costs. Although some forward indicators of employment have been firming this year, the unemployment rate has edged higher. The labour market has a degree of spare capacity and it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently. Hence, growth in wages is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate.

Monetary policy remains accommodative. Interest rates are very low and have continued to edge lower over the past year or so as competition to lend has increased. Investors continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices have continued to rise.

The exchange rate has traded at lower levels recently, in large part reflecting the strengthening US dollar. But the Australian dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices in recent months. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.

Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.

In the Board’s judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.

Housing Lending Above $1.4 trillion

The RBA statistics released today reveals that housing lending has now reached a new milestone, overall reaching $1.4 trillion.In seasonally adjusted terms, owner occupied housing grew 0.44% and investment lending 0.99%. Investment lending accounted for more than 34% of all loans, a record (and is understated because owner occupied lending includes refinancing). Overall it is likely more new investment loans than owner occupied loans were written in the month. We will need to wait for the detailed figures to confirm this.

Looking at the monthly growth data, we see the continued relative momentum in investment lending, and this underscores the concerns of the OECD and other observers.

In 12 month terms, housing lending grew 7%, Personal Credit by 1.0% and business credit grew 4.3%.

Here is the RBA summary: