Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in September 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. In line with our expectations, and continuing to show the pressure on households, and the limited impact of the tax cuts, and even lower interest rates.
This follows a 0.4 per cent rise in August 2019.
Rises were seen in other retailing (0.8 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway services (0.6 per cent), and food retailing (0.1 per cent). These rises were slightly offset by a fall in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.5 per cent) and department stores (-0.2 per cent). Household goods (0.0 per cent) was relatively unchanged.
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.3 per cent), Western Australia (0.7 per cent), Tasmania (1.0 per cent), South Australia (0.2 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (0.1 per cent), and the Northern Territory (0.1 per cent). Victoria (0.0 per cent ) was relatively unchanged. Queensland (-0.1 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in September 2019.
The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in September 2019, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in August 2019. Compared to September 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.4 per cent.
Online retail turnover contributed 6.3 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in September 2019. In September 2018 online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail.
Quarterly volumes fall 0.1 per cent
For the September quarter 2019, there was a fall of 0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted volume terms. This follows a rise of 0.1 per cent in the June quarter 2019.
The quarterly fall in volumes was led by cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-1.0 per cent), and department stores (-0.1 per cent). Food retailing (0.0 per cent) was relatively unchanged. Household goods (0.9 per cent), other retailing (0.3 per cent), and clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing (0.3 per cent) rose in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
We discuss the latest results from our household surveys, and the retail
turnover data from the ABS. We also display detailed stress mapping
across the country.
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The ABS released their August 2019 retail figures today, and the data confirms the slowing economy, and that despite 2 rate cuts and tax refunds, households are unwilling or unable to spend. This is consistent with our surveys data which shows any free cash is going towards paying down debt, a sign of reduced levels of confidence and rising levels of financial stress.
Human hand holding plastic card in payment machine in shop
The trend estimate rose 0.1% in August 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in July 2019, and a rise of 0.2% in June 2019.
The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in August 2019. This follows a relatively unchanged result (0.0%) in July 2019, and a rise of 0.3% in June 2019.
In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.3% in August 2019 compared with August 2018.
The following industries rose in trend terms in August 2019: Food retailing (0.1%), Other retailing (0.3%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3%), and Household goods retailing (0.1%). Cafes, restaurants and takeaway services (-0.1%), and Department stores (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in August 2019.
The following states and territories rose in trend terms in August 2019: Victoria (0.2%), Western Australia (0.3%), Queensland (0.1%), Tasmania (0.4%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). New South Wales (0.0%), South Australia (0.0%), and the Northern Territory (0.0%) were all relatively unchanged in August 2019.
Online retail turnover contributed 6.2 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in August 2019. In August 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail.
This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in June 2019. The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in July 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in June 2019. Compared to July 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.4 per cent.
“There were falls in four of the six industries and six of the eight states and territories in July,” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys. “Cafes, restaurants and takeaway services (-0.6 per cent) led the falls. There were also falls in Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.0 per cent), Other retailing (-0.4 per cent), and Department stores (-0.2 per cent). Food retailing (0.3 per cent), and Household goods retailing (0.1 per cent) rose this month”.
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Queensland (-0.2 per cent), New South Wales (-0.1 per cent), South Australia (-0.5 per cent), Victoria (-0.1 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-0.5 per cent), and Tasmania (-0.1 per cent). There were rises in Western Australia (0.6 per cent), and the Northern Territory (0.3 per cent).
Online retail turnover contributed 6.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in July 2019. This is unchanged from June 2019. In July 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.5 per cent to total retail.
Woolworths Holdings announced yesterday it will book an impairment of $437.4 million against David Jones, reducing the valuation of the department chain to about $965 million. This write down is the second since 2018. Woolworths Holdings bought the prestigious network of stores in 2014 for $2.1 billion.
A Woolworths spokeswoman said
This writedown reflects sustained and unprecedented economic pressures and structural changes in the Australian market. The retail sector in Australia is currently in recession, and the Australian economy has slowed to its weakest level since the global financial crisis in 2009
Today the ABS said the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.2% in June 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in May 2019 and a rise of 0.2% in April 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.4% in June 2019. This follows a rise of 0.1% in May 2019 and a fall of 0.1% in April 2019. The original estimate for Australian turnover fell 1.5% in June 2019. The original estimate for chains and other larger retailers fell 0.1% in June 2019. The original estimate for smaller retailers fell 4.6% in June 2019.
The following states and territories rose in trend terms in June 2019:
Victoria (0.3%), Queensland (0.4%), South Australia (0.3%), the
Australian Capital Territory (0.4%), Tasmania (0.3%), and the Northern
Territory (0.2%). New South Wales (0.0%), and Western Australia (0.0%)
were relatively unchanged in trend terms in June 2019.
FOOD RETAILING
In current prices, the trend estimate for Food retailing rose 0.1% in
June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1%. By industry
subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Supermarkets and grocery stores
(0.1%), was relatively unchanged for Liquor retailing (0.0%), and fell
for Other specialised food retailing(-0.4%). The seasonally adjusted
estimate rose for Supermarkets and grocery stores (0.5%), and fell for
Other specialised food retailing (-3.8%), and Liquor retailing (-0.1%).
HOUSEHOLD GOODS RETAILING
In current prices, the trend estimate for Household goods rose 0.2% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Electrical and electronic goods retailing (0.4%), and Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing (0.3%), and fell for Hardware, building and garden supplies retailing (-0.2%).
CLOTHING, FOOTWEAR AND PERSONAL ACCESSORY RETAILING
In current prices, the trend estimate for Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 0.6% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.0%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Clothing retailing (0.5%), and Footwear and other personal accessory retailing (0.5%).
DEPARTMENT STORES
In current prices, the trend estimate for Department stores rose 0.2% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.6%.
OTHER RETAILING
In current prices, the trend estimate for Other retailing rose 0.4% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Other retailing n.e.c. (0.4%), Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletry goods retailing (0.4%), and Other recreational goods retailing (0.2%), and was relatively unchanged (0.0%) for Newspaper and book retailing.
CAFES, RESTAURANTS AND TAKEAWAY FOOD SERVICES
In current prices, the trend estimate for Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services rose 0.2% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Cafes, restaurants and catering services (0.2%), and Takeaway food services (0.1%).
Online retail turnover contributed 6.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in June 2019. In June 2018 online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail.
For the June quarter 2019, there was a rise of 0.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted volume terms. This follows a fall of 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2019. The quarterly rise in volumes was led by Department stores (1.4 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.5 per cent), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.7 per cent), Other retailing (0.4 per cent), and Household goods retailing (0.1 per cent). Food retailing (-0.4 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
Nab’s online retail tells the same story:
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted (-1.6%) in June on a
month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis. This follows from a rebound
in May (3.4% mom, s.a).
In year-on-year terms, the NAB Online Retail Sales Index remains
positive, albeit barely, up 0.5% (y/y, s.a.) in June. However, this
result is compared to June 2018, and it is worth noting that the period
January to September 2018 was one of the strongest growth periods in the
NAB online retail sales index history.
After a strong May result, June data shows sales for three of the
eight online retail categories contracting in month-on-month growth
terms. The largest sales category, homewares and appliances (-7.1% mom,
s.a.), was a key contributor to the headline result given its relative
weight in the index. Media, and to a lesser extent, grocery and liquor,
were the two other categories to contract in the month. The smallest
sales category, takeaway food, recorded the fastest growth in the month.
For more detail, see Charts 3, 5, 7 & 8 below.
In month-on-month terms, all states and territories except WA (2.4%
mom, s.a.) and ACT (4.5%) recorded a contraction in sales growth.
Tasmania (-6.4%) led the monthly decline in sales growth.
In June, spend growth in metro areas was higher, at 0.4% (mom,
s.a.), relative to regional (-3.1%). WA metro areas went against the
broader result to record the highest online retail spend growth (+5.4%)
in the month. The above mentioned state contraction in online retail
sales for Tasmania was associated with a larger contraction in metro
area sales, along with a smaller contraction in regional, albeit with
sales for the latter also falling last month. See Charts 15 and 16 for
more detail.
While contracting, at -1.6%, domestic online retailers performed
better in month-on-month terms relative to international competitors
(-1.9% mom, s.a.). In year-on-year terms, from our series, considerable
weakness in international online sales remains. See charts 13 and 14,
and table 3 for category growth and share.
We estimate that in the 12 months to June, Australians spent $29.32
billion on online retail, a level that is just over 9% of the
traditional bricks and mortar retail sector (May 2019, Australian Bureau
of Statistics), and about 12.7% higher than the 12 months to June 2018.
The trend estimate rose 0.2% in May 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in April 2019, and a rise of 0.2% in March 2019.
The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1% in May 2019. This follows a fall of 0.1% in April 2019, and a rise of 0.3% in March 2019.
In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in May 2019 compared with May 2018.
The following industries rose in trend terms in May 2019: Food retailing (0.2%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.3%), Other retailing (0.2%), and Department stores (0.3%). Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.0%) was relatively unchanged. Household goods retailing (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in May 2019.
The following states and territories rose in trend terms in May 2019: Queensland (0.4%), Victoria (0.3%), South Australia (0.4%), the Northern Territory (0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). New South Wales (0.0%) and Tasmania (0.0%) were relatively unchanged. Western Australia (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in May 2019.
The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in April 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in March 2019. Compared to April 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.
In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.9% in April 2019 compared with April 2018.
The following industries rose in trend terms in April 2019: Food retailing (0.4%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), Other retailing (0.1%), Department stores (0.2%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.1%). Household goods retailing (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in April 2019.
The following states and territories rose in trend terms in April 2019: Queensland (0.5%), New South Wales (0.2%), Victoria (0.2%), South Australia (0.3%), the Northern Territory (0.1%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.1%). Tasmania (0.0%) was relatively unchanged. Western Australia (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in April 2019.
Online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in April 2019, which wasunchanged from March 2019. In April 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.4 per cent to total retail.
This follows a 0.9 per cent rise in February 2019.
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Victoria (0.7 per cent), Queensland (0.6 per cent), New South Wales (0.2 per cent), Tasmania (0.4 per cent), South Australia (0.1 per cent), and the Northern Territory (0.7 per cent). The Australian Capital Territory was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) and Western Australia (-0.7 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in March 2019.
“Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.4 per cent) and Food
retailing (0.4 per cent) led the rises” said Ben Faulkner, Director of
Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys “with strength in food prices
contributing to rises, especially in supermarkets and grocery stores.
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.2 per cent) and
Household goods retailing (0.2 per cent) also rose. The rises were
partially offset by falls in Department stores (-1.5 per cent) and Other
retailing (-0.4 per cent)”.
The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March 2019, following a rise of 0.3 per cent in February 2019. Compared to March 2018, the trend estimate rose 3.0 per cent.
Online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in March 2019. In March 2018 online retail turnover contributed 5.1 per cent to total retail.
For the March quarter 2019, there was a fall of 0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted volume terms. This follows a relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) result in the December quarter 2018. The quarterly fall in volumes was led by Household goods retailing (-0.6 per cent), and Department stores (-1.2 per cent). Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.0 per cent), Other retailing (0.3 per cent), Food retailing (0.1 per cent), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent) all rose in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
The trend estimate rose 0.2% in February 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2019, and a rise of 0.2% in December 2018. This a more reliable indicator. Compared to February 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent, and is higher than average wages growth.
ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, Ben Faulkner said: “There were improved results across most industries with rises in food retailing (0.8 per cent), department stores (3.5 per cent), household goods retailing (1.1 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.6 per cent). Other retailing (0.0 per cent) and cafes, restaurant and takeaway services (0.0 per cent) were relatively unchanged. The rise this month follows subdued results in December 2018 (-0.4 per cent) and January 2019 (0.1 per cent).”
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Queensland (1.4 per cent), New South Wales (0.6 per cent), Victoria (0.8 per cent), Western Australia (0.6 per cent), South Australia (0.7 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.7 per cent) and the Northern Territory (1.4 per cent). There was a fall in Tasmania (-0.7 per cent).
The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in February 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in January 2019. Compared to February 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.
Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in February 2019, which is unchanged from January 2019. In February 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.1 per cent to total retail.
Australian retail turnover fell 0.4 per cent in December 2018, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.
This confirms the earlier data, which shows households just do not have the money to spend, (and spent in November to get the discounts).
This follows a 0.5 per cent rise in November 2018.
“Household goods (-2.8 per cent) and Clothing and footwear (-2.4 per cent) led the falls after strong rises in November from Black Friday promotions,” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys. “There were also falls in Department stores (-1.1 per cent) and Other retailing (-0.1 per cent).”
The falls were partially offset by rises in Food retailing (0.5 per cent) and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.1 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in New South Wales (-0.6 per cent), Victoria (-0.5 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-1.8 per cent), Queensland (-0.1 per cent), South Australia (-0.3 per cent), the Northern Territory (-0.3 per cent), and Tasmania (-0.2 per cent.). The only state to have a rise in December 2018 was Western Australia (0.1 per cent).
Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in December 2018, down from 6.6 per cent in November 2018, highlighting the increasing importance of the November month for online sales. In December 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.8 per cent to total retail.
The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in December 2018, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in November 2018. Compared to December 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.2 per cent.
For the December quarter 2018, there was a 0.1 per cent rise in seasonally adjusted volume terms. This follows a rise of 0.2 per cent in the September quarter 2018. The quarterly rise in volumes was led by Clothing and footwear (2.7 per cent), and Department stores (0.7 per cent). Food retailing (-0.2 per cent), Other retailing (-0.5 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.5 per cent), and Household goods (-0.3 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
