The Evergrande Factor And Beyond

China Evergrande Group’s property sales plummeted in 2021 for the first time in at least a decade, as the giant developer slipped into default and buyer confidence faded. Evergrande, China’s second-biggest developer by sales in 2020, is the largest Chinese real estate developer by issuance of offshore, U.S. dollar-denominated debt, which stood at $19 billion last year.

A filing Tuesday showed the company’s contracted sales of properties totaled 443.02 billion yuan ($69.22 billion) last year, down 38.7% from the 723.25 billion yuan in contracted sales reported for 2020. It met about 60% of a 750 billion yuan target set at the start of the year.

More broadly, Chinese shares had their worst start to the new year since 2019, as investors took profit on some of their most successful bets in 2021.

Chinese stocks, hobbled by regulatory pressures and uneven economic growth, plummeted in 2021. The FXI China large-cap ETF fell 21% in its worst year since 2008. So the question is where to from here? Many investors are still seeing long term opportunity, as China is going to continue to be a big part of the global infrastructure. So the question is will investors be prepared to wait out the near-term turbulence. Will they stick with China?

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Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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