Trade Gap Surprise – Deficit of $3.8 billion

The ABS published the April International Trade in Goods and Services to April 2015. In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,883m in April 2015, an increase of $292m (18%) on the deficit in March 2015. However,  in seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,888m in April 2015, an increase of $2,657m (216%) on the deficit in March 2015. This is a significant “blip” and seems to be caused by a couple of specific one-off items, including loss of exports caused by bad weather, and the purchase of a large piece of machinery.

TradeGapApril2015In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $1,561m (6%) to $25,659m. Non-rural goods fell $1,271m (8%) partly driven by coal, coke and briquettes, down $859m (22%) as a result of the temporary closure of ports due to severe weather conditions. Non-monetary gold fell $306m (22%), rural goods fell $31m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $5m (15%). Services credits rose $52m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,096m (4%) to $29,547m. Capital goods rose $546m (10%) driven by imports of machinery and industrial equipment, up $1,232m (69%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $371m (4%) and consumption goods rose $314m (4%). Non-monetary gold fell $91m (24%). Services debits fell $43m (1%).

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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