Trend Unemployment Moves Lower to 5.1%

The trend unemployment rate fell from 5.2 per cent to 5.1 per cent in the month of October 2018, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

“Today’s fall in trend unemployment to 5.1 per cent marks the lowest unemployment rate since early 2012. This month is the 25th consecutive monthly increase in employed full-time persons with an average increase of 20,300 employed per month” said the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman.

Employment and hours

Trend employment increased by 25,400 persons in October 2018. Full-time employment increased by 22,900 persons and part-time employment by 2,500.

The trend underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3 per cent in October 2018 and the trend underutilisation rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 13.4 per cent.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in October 2018.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 285,900 persons or 2.3 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in October 2018 and by 2.0 per cent over the past year.

States and territories

The states and territories with the strongest annual growth in trend employment were New South Wales (3.5 per cent) and Victoria (2.6 per cent).

“Of the 20,300 average monthly increase in employed full-time persons over the past 25 months, New South Wales contributed 35.9%, Victoria 30.5%, Queensland 16.5% and Western Australia 12.1%. The contribution of the other states and territories was largely flat” said Mr Hockman.

Seasonally adjusted data

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by around 32,800 persons in October 2018. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0 per cent and the labour force participation rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 65.6 per cent.

The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

• Employment increased 25,400 to 12,665,800.
• Unemployment decreased 7,600 to 680,300.
• Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.1%.
• Participation rate remained steady at 65.6%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.6 million hours (0.2%) to 1,761.8 million hours.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

• Employment increased 32,800 to 12,671,500. Full-time employment increased 42,300 to 8,703,700 and part-time employment decreased 9,500 to 3,967,900.
• Unemployment increased 4,600 to 672,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 5,200 to 445,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 9,800 to 226,700.
• Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%.
• Participation rate increased by 0.1 pts to 65.6%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.1 million hours (0.3%) to 1,764.4 million hours.

LABOUR UNDERUTILISATION (MONTHLY CHANGE)

• The monthly trend underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3 per cent. The monthly underutilisation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 13.4 per cent.
• The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3 per cent. The monthly underutilisation rate remained steady at 13.3 per cent.