Trend Unemployment Rate Steady At 5.1%

Australia’s trend unemployment rate remained steady in January 2019 at 5.1 per cent, from a revised December 2018 figure, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “The unemployment rate has remained at 5.1 per cent for a second month, supported by strong participation in the labour force, at 65.7 per cent.”

Employment and hours


In January 2019, trend monthly employment increased by 24,900 persons. Full-time employment increased by 16,800 persons and part-time employment increased by 8,100 persons.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 295,500 persons (2.4 per cent) which was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend employment to population ratio, which shows how employed the population is, rose to a 10 year high of 62.4 per cent.

“The 15-64 year old employment to population ratio reached a historical high of 74.1 per cent, with almost three of every four ‘working age’ Australians now employed”, Mr Hockman said.

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1 per cent in January 2019 and by 1.6 per cent over the past year. This was slightly below the 20 year average year-on-year growth of 1.7 per cent.

The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3 per cent and decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the year. The trend underutilisation rate also remained steady at 13.3 per cent, and decreased by 0.7 percentage points over the past year.

States and territories

The trend unemployment rate increased in South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania, decreased in New South Wales and Queensland, and remained steady in all other states and territories.

In January 2019, increases in trend employment were observed in most states and territories except Western Australia (down 1,700 persons),Tasmania (down 300 persons) and South Australia (down 200 persons). The largest increases were in New South Wales (up 11,200 persons), followed by Victoria (up 10,300 persons) and Queensland (up 3,500 persons).

Over the past year, increases in employment were observed in all states except Tasmania (down 1,400 persons). Both territories recorded falls in employment (the Northern Territory down 2,500 persons and the Australian Capital Territory down 2,300 persons). The largest increases were in New South Wales (up 133,900 persons), Victoria (up 118,800 persons) and Queensland (up 27,800 persons). The highest annual employment growth rates were in Victoria at 3.7%, followed by New South Wales at 3.4% and Queensland at 1.1%. New South Wales and Victoria were the only states to have a year-on-year growth rate in trend employment above their 20 year average. The monthly trend unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts in Western Australia (6.6%) and Tasmania (6.2%). It increased by less than 0.1 pts in South Australia (6.0%) and the Northern Territory (5.0%). It remained unchanged in Victoria (4.5%) and the Australian Capital Territory (3.5%). It decreased by 0.1 pts in New South Wales (4.1%) and less than 0.1 pts in Queensland (6.1%).

The monthly trend underemployment rate increased in the Northern Territory (up 0.3 pts to 5.0%) and Victoria (up 0.1 pts to 8.2%). Decreases were seen in Tasmania (down 0.2 pts to 9.6%), Western Australia (down 0.1 pts to 9.2%) and the Australian Capital Territory (down 0.1 pts to 6.3%).

Increases to the trend participation rate were observed in the Northern Territory (up by 0.2 pts to 74.8%), South Australia (up by less than 0.1 pts to 62.8%), New South Wales (up by less than 0.1 pts to 65.1%) and Victoria (up by less than 0.1 pts to 65.9%). Decreases were observed in Tasmania (down 0.1 pts to 60.1%) and the Australian Capital Territory (down 0.1 pts to 69.6%). The monthly trend participation rate remained unchanged in Queensland (65.6%) and Western Australia (68.5%).

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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